Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.

[PowellVolz]

The 6z GFS has high elevation snows for May 2nd.  Not good.

Unbelievable


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[PowellVolz]

The 6z GFS has high elevation snows for May 2nd.  Not good.

Are we still thinking summer could be dryer than normal?


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[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Are we still thinking summer could be dryer than normal?


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I still think so. Hope I'm wrong.

[Weathertree2]

10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I still think so. Hope I'm wrong.

Already turning that way here in and around Middle TN 

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, Weathertree2 said:

Already turning that way here in and around Middle TN 

Same here. Farmers already taking a beating due to inflation and other things so, could really put a hurting on them.

[Carvers Gap]

On 4/23/2022 at 3:06 PM, PowellVolz said:

Are we still thinking summer could be dryer than normal?


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IMHO, depends on if there is a Nina hangover.   If there is, early summer could be hot and dry.  If Nino begins to take over, the middle to second half of summer could be seasonal (which still means hot) and decent precip.  I haven't looked that closely at though, so huge grains of salt there.  Spring seems to have been a mix of both.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS seems to be honing-in on yet another trough amplification around the second week of May, and yes....snow showers in the mountains.  Unreal.

[Carvers Gap]

Frost advisory here this morning and temps in the mid-30s.

[PowellVolz]

Frost advisory here this morning and temps in the mid-30s.

Frost on the tall grass this morning, 35 degrees


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[8283 El Nino Baby]

It hit 30 here on the Plateau. I'm ready to start planting, but am not sure when it will be safe too.

[Carvers Gap]

If this next batch of precip weakens as it approaches NE TN(as it has for much of spring), we may find ourselves on the drought monitor by next month.  It is getting quite dry.  That is a bad sign for summer in regards to heat and drought.  Looks like Niña conditions will persist for a while.

[John1122]

Managed some t-storms and rain here around midnight to 2am last night. Looks like there could be some heavy stuff Friday. 

This is the first time in 3 or 4 years we've not had at least one historic flooding event by this point in the year. So while it's not truly dry here, it seems like it compared to the last several years. 

[PowellVolz]

Got lucky and picked up three cells that moved over me this morning. Lots of lightning, actually woke me up.


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[Matthew70]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

If this next batch of precip weakens as it approaches NE TN(as it has for much of spring), we may find ourselves on the drought monitor by next month.  It is getting quite dry.  That is a bad sign for summer in regards to heat and drought.  Looks like Niña conditions will persist for a while.

Ugh.  My yard is finally looks best it ever has.  Thick & very green.  Hopefully it turns into a wet summer.  Pleaseeeeee!

[PowellVolz]

Ugh.  My yard is finally looks best it ever has.  Thick & very green.  Hopefully it turns into a wet summer.  Pleaseeeeee!

Same here. Lawn looks great, about to apply another app of preemerg


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[John1122]

Pounding down out there right now, frequent thunder and lightning too. 

[John1122]

.74 from that storm. Watered me tomatoes about 2 hours before it hit. One of the better ways to bring rain, since I actually carry creek water in a 5 gallon bucket to water them. 

[jaxjagman]

Broke the record high today,was 90,hit 91

[PowellVolz]

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[Uncle Nasty]

We really need some rain. We have fescue and our yard is the best it's looked in the 6 years we've been here. With that said, one side of our yard heading to the back sits in the sun 90% of the day. It's starting to struggle as it usually does in the heat. My front and other side is still lush, thick and green. I'm almost to the point of just keeping the good area green year round and basically trying to keep the sun baked side alive but not worrying about trying to keep it as nice as the front.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

20 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

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Those model runs which suggested a BN May or much BN May are in serious trouble.

[dwagner88]

On 5/11/2022 at 7:54 PM, Uncle Nasty said:

We really need some rain. We have fescue and our yard is the best it's looked in the 6 years we've been here. With that said, one side of our yard heading to the back sits in the sun 90% of the day. It's starting to struggle as it usually does in the heat. My front and other side is still lush, thick and green. I'm almost to the point of just keeping the good area green year round and basically trying to keep the sun baked side alive but not worrying about trying to keep it as nice as the front.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk


 

Mine is just about to go dormant. I cut it Monday of this week, and there has been zero growth since then.

[jaxjagman]

I'm gonna be disappointed if i can't see this tonight.Band of high clouds is moving in but should clear out ,but thunderstorms seems possible into the evening here.Maybe you guys in the east might have a better chance to see it.

 

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/nashville?iso=20220516

[Carvers Gap]

Last week...Portions of NE TN  were added to the drought monitor(early stages).  The area in SE TN was expanded.  Today’s update will be interesting.  We are in a cycle where NE TN is dry and getting drier.  It has been my experience that those types of summers tend to struggled to get back to normal for precip.  I put my garden in slightly early this year as a bit of a gamble.  I think late summer has the potential to be really tough on gardens and farms.  

[Daniel Boone]

13 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Last week...Portions of NE TN  were added to the drought monitor(early stages).  The area in SE TN was expanded.  Today’s update will be interesting.  We are in a cycle where NE TN is dry and getting drier.  It has been my experience that those types of summers tend to struggled to get back to normal for precip.  I put my garden in slightly early this year as a bit of a gamble.  I think late summer has the potential to be really tough on gardens and farms.  

Yep . Writing on the wall .

[8283 El Nino Baby]

Things are a bit better on the central Plateau. It seemed like May was going to be dry, but my area got 2 inches on Saturday/Saturday night.

January – 6.68

February – 7.75

March – 5.88

April – 4.63

May – 2.86

 

2022 Total: 27.8 inches

 

[PowellVolz]

Looking like severe weather is possible tomorrow afternoon. I-40 looks to be on the southern edge of the boundary and with the storm motion to the SE, will not be surprised if the southern end of the MCS has rotating supercells. MRX is saying Cams are showing anywhere from 2k to 4k joules with a inverted V mid level profile. Forcing will be weak but there will be boundaries to the SE of the convection that tracked across SE Kentucky.


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[nrgjeff]

After three wet years in a row.. We are kind of due for a summer of making the water utility more profitable. Already in May!

[PowellVolz]

After three wet years in a row.. We are kind of due for a summer of making the water utility more profitable. Already in May!

Already getting dark spots in my lawn. Applied moisture manager and iron yesterday.


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[Carvers Gap]

We received some decent rain last night in the form of a severe storm.  2" size hail fell in Church Hill.  We saw that incoming on the radar and were getting ready to move our cars to a parking garage downtown!    Right as we got ready to load-up, the severe hail portion of the storm dissipated.  Areas of Fall Branch received some smaller hail as it crossed Bays Mountain.  Outside of high winds, hail is the worst.  After dealing with that several years ago in the form of torn-up cars(broken windows and looking like they had been hit with a hammer), gutters with holes in them, broken furniture, and a new roof(after getting a new roof just 6mos earlier)....I truly hate hail storms.  Thankful for the rain, though.