Silas Lang Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Euro looks like it has started moving toward the GFS solution last night. Not as high snow totals, but a big jump from 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The 6z GFS and 0z Euro have very similar solutions with an area of slp popping east of the Apps. We have been playing this game all winter. The million dollar question is where does that low form? For now, we are loosely tracking late season, winter storm potential for both the lower and higher elevations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: We have been playing this game all winter. Wasn't it the first one of the season that was doing almost this exact same dance? I know, like you said, they've all been pretty dicey, but this one's projected track looks very similar to a specific one. I went back through the gifs and it looks like the it was the Jan 2 -3 storm. This is how it looked at around 7 days: Here is is once we got in HRRR range: I think it ended up being a pretty stout single shortwave: This one looks like it has more of a n. stream component to it: Kind of like the one in late January: But remember how that one jumped around so much at hour 100 and ended up with a strung out tail (below)? The Euro is trying that: Do the shorter wavelengths help us out and keep the southern energy stronger in March? I'm going to be in Boone this weekend, so that may give plateau areas an advantage, lol. It's a good looking Miller A mean on the GEFS. How's TIMs looking today? After its last performance I think we need some tornados in shoulder seasons for it to be fully charged. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 That is a pretty good look on the 12z GFS. It is slightly more progressive and a bit more of a clean pass for the eastern areas. The 12z ICON is what you want in middle and western forum areas. Modeling seems to be keeping this area in the cone for wintry precip this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The 12z CMC is more robust with the system this weekend as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Both the GFS and CMC are pretty clean phases on the 12th. @Math/Met, I see you lurking. Man, the wind is HOWLING here in Kingsport. Any mountain wave stuff reported in your neck of the woods? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 And the 12z Euro follows suit with a pretty good thump for much of the forum area....actually a major winter storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The snow axis is trending a bit to the SE. Really, the overall synoptics look good for much of the forum area. I am wondering if we actually see a clean pass to the south with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Wasn't it the first one of the season that was doing almost this exact same dance? I know, like you said, they've all been pretty dicey, but this one's projected track looks very similar to a specific one. I went back through the gifs and it looks like the it was the Jan 2 -3 storm. This is how it looked at around 7 days: Here is is once we got in HRRR range: I think it ended up being a pretty stout single shortwave: This one looks like it has more of a n. stream component to it: Kind of like the one in late January: But remember how that one jumped around so much at hour 100 and ended up with a strung out tail (below)? The Euro is trying that: Do the shorter wavelengths help us out and keep the southern energy stronger in March? I'm going to be in Boone this weekend, so that may give plateau areas an advantage, lol. It's a good looking Miller A mean on the GEFS. How's TIMs looking today? After its last performance I think we need some tornados in shoulder seasons for it to be fully charged. Super similar set-up IMHO. Models seem to be trending a bit SE. A cutter west of the Apps or some sort of energy transfer to the coastal plain are possible. Let's see if trends continue overnight. If totals increase again tomorrow, modeling may be on to something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This could trend totally to the SE and slip by...so be warned. The Euro trending back this way is a good sign. Here is the clown map for the 12z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Wow total cave by the Euro. It made a small adjustment towards the GFS last night, but now they are looking almost identical. Crazy this snow is forecast for the first day of Spring Break here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 If this is there at 12z tomorrow, probably time to start a thread. The 18z would be pretty epic for middle/west TN...and E TN still gets in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Great look. Low cuts through E TN...secondary pops to our east and moves slowly enough to allow the remaining moisture to thump even parts of E TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Solid look on the 18z GFS ensemble as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 0z GFS is quite enthusiastic. Gonna be a huge run it looks like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 The Canadian took another step towards the GFS and has a much more widespread event than it did at 12z. Thread may be needed by tomorrow for this one as long as everything sticks together. Accumulation will be aided by it being an evening into overnight event. Rates will also come into play. Ground temps are a bit of a factor but can easily be overcome by rates. The huge April 1987 snow had temps the last week of March in the mid to upper 70s, it snowed around 1-2 inches on March 31st after the high being 75 and 71 in the two days before it. Highs were in the 50s on April 1st and 2nd, cold crashed in on the 2nd, as rain started, by the evening of the second silver dollar were falling here, 10-12 inches fell from evening into overnight. It just melts quickly from the ground up when the ground is so warm but it should look amazing for a few hour on Sat morning if we can pull it off. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 MRX looks like they are finally taking the system seriously. Huge Euro run last night. 6z GFS took a step back. Let's see what the 12z suite bring us today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Long way out there, but the 18z GFS and 12z EPS have another window near the end of the month - maybe around March 27th. I know a lot of us, me included, are not used to March's of recent memory being part of winter....but the bowling ball lows sliding through the SE only need a cold shot to really get cranking. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Long way out there, but the 18z GFS and 12z EPS have another window near the end of the month - maybe around March 27th. I know a lot of us, me included, are not used to March's of recent memory being part of winter....but the bowling ball lows sliding through the SE only need a cold shot to really get cranking. Yep. Judah Cohen said a Strat split could lead to a cold eastern US. My thinking effects look to be early April. Sure hope not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 The 18z had a major winter storm. similar to the one we just had, around the 29th. It was gone at 0z but it's been pretty good at sniffing them out a long way out this winter. It has a smaller clipper with snow on the 25th at 0z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Crickets in here. Everyone must be outside enjoying Spring! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:57 AM, John1122 said: The 18z had a major winter storm. similar to the one we just had, around the 29th. It was gone at 0z but it's been pretty good at sniffing them out a long way out this winter. It has a smaller clipper with snow on the 25th at 0z. 12z GFS has two opportunities. One is around the 27th, and then the one you mentioned. And yes, the GFS has had a real knack for sniffing out storms at range. @Icy Hot, yep, enjoying the weather and watching A LOT of basketball. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 1:27 PM, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS has two opportunities. One is around the 27th, and then the one you mentioned. And yes, the GFS has had a real knack for sniffing out storms at range. @Icy Hot, yep, enjoying the weather and watching A LOT of basketball. It's going to be 74 in Johnson City on the 29th according to TWC. Going to have to be a lot colder than that for it to snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Snownado said: It's going to be 74 in Johnson City on the 29th according to TWC. Going to have to be a lot colder than that for it to snow ! Yeah, the weather is nice! I like it. The 12z Euro has 4-6" in the mountains for the weekend(this Saturday) along w/ snow showers in the valleys of NE TN. There is also a lower elevation event along the northern TN border in fantasy land - day9/10. Both of the biggest snows IMBY this season occurred after big warm-ups. The pattern this winter has been for big warm-ups followed by sharp cold snaps. Let's see if that continues into early spring. Now, we are just about on the outside edge of what climatology allows terms of accumulating snows at TRI. One of the things I learned out west, warm temps can be gone in 3-4 hours with a strong cold front. I would think it unlikely to see another valley snow greater than 2", but I would still put the chances for that between say 25-30%. There are a TON of systems coming out of the GOM and getting cut-off. Most of those will be cold rain. If we get a decent cold front to time with one of those, game on. Here at TRI, I have seen accumulating snows into the first week of April - rare but no without precedent. This year's patterns could yield a surprise. For now, I have been working in my garden, but I have not taken down the hoop house or cold frames. The weather on modeling right now is going to potentially give folks whiplash in terms of temps. Just nine days ago the wind chill was in the low single digits IMBY and snow on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 If anything, there is a significant signal for a couple of big mountain snow events. Our folks in western North Carolina may see some big numbers. Both the GFS and Euro at 12z reflect that. I would think the Plateau may not be done either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Fun story which I have shared before and also recently. On June 14th, I saw a "lower" elevation snow in Yellowstone. It was 5" of snow at 6,000'. That is not uncommon out there during June. We had beautiful weather for several days, and then winter storms packages were posted from the NWS. I could literally see the cold/snow roll in from the Madison Range. It was just a wall. I have also been in a meadow fishing in YNP when a lightning storm hit. It rolled in so quickly, we could barely get out of the meadow. It began to hail, and temps probably fell 20-30 degrees in about 30 minutes. Message for the day...wild weather swings can and do occur even here in E TN. That is by no means a certainty, but that makes weather fun. I will get a look at the Weeklies here in a bit. I don't foresee a warm spring, so enjoy these days. Looks like BN temps may return for the early part of April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 A few inches in late April isn't unheard of here. When my grandfather was young, we got 9 inches in May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 This is from April 16th 2018, the year of winter in spring here. Accumulating snow fell on March 7th, 12th, 21st and then April 16th. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: A few inches in late April isn't unheard of here. When my grandfather was young, we got 9 inches in May. My Dad said his grandfather told him about that. He said the corn was knee high and the snow bent it over but, the sun came out later that day and melted it and the corn made it ok. Dr Dewpoint had an article of 2 back to back heavy snow's May 20 and 24th 1894 in Central and Eastern Kentucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: My Dad said his grandfather told him about that. He said the corn was knee high and the snow bent it over but, the sun came out later that day and melted it and the corn made it ok. Dr Dewpoint had an article of 2 back to back heavy snow's May 20 and 24th 1894 in Central and Eastern Kentucky. My grandpa and great uncle always said the same thing about the corn getting bent over. They went rabbit hunting that morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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