Carvers Gap Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Beware of using the Euro Weeklies during shoulder season, but they are not warm after this week. Quick warm-up after this weekend, and then looks like potential for prolonged cooler weather after that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Looks like very high winds in the mountains and foothills overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks like very high winds in the mountains and foothills overnight. Been a stormy day in west Tn so it’s headed y’alls way. There are a few severe threats popping up this afternoon at the house. Thunder and lightning has been pretty steady the past hour. Picked up a little over an inch of rain so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 @PowellVolz, that is an amazing video that you posted on the VQ about the tornado that was in New Orleans. As @AMZ8990 notes, stormy day indeed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention], that is an amazing video that you posted on the VQ about the tornado that was in New Orleans. As [mention=15028]AMZ8990[/mention] notes, stormy day indeed.I just put it in the severe weather thread. Going through a populated downtown of a major city is definitely worst case scenario. Prayers for those people. I sent it to a friend of mine and he said…”looks like Ukraine”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I feel like the wind has ween howling for like two weeks. This is Wyoming everyday pretty much, but not here. It seems like nearly every afternoon we have been hitting gusts almost over 30mph. Sustained winds are around 15-20mph right now. Slight chance of snow showers/flurries tomorrow morning... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 @Math/Metis this a mountain wave event tomorrow afternoon and night. It looks like the Smokies are looking at gusts up to 80mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Pretty much every model shows 50+ mph gusts area wide tomorrow, except for the NE valley. Mountains are more like 70-80 mph. It’s going to be another very windy day. Just like last week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Next time we see a La Nina show-up, it is probably worth discussing fire danger as well. There have been two fires in the same area this year, and then the Gatlinburg fire a few years back. I think all of those fires occurred during La Nina conditions. I think there are microclimates that tend to really dry out during those, specifically the Smokies and eastern side of the eastern TN River Valley. Add those high winds to a pattern where it is somewhat dry, and there are conditions for forest fires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2, 2022 Author Share Posted April 2, 2022 Modeling suggests we aren't done with snow yet. They insist on snow showers and even accumulations along the Plateau, SEKy, SWVA and the Eastern Mountains as we head into next weekend. The GFS has been on this for about 8 days now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Modeling suggests we aren't done with snow yet. They insist on snow showers and even accumulations along the Plateau, SEKy, SWVA and the Eastern Mountains as we head into next weekend. The GFS has been on this for about 8 days now. Yeah, it has been steady. Windy here yet again today. Getting slightly worried about a summer which might turn dry, especially early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, it has been steady. Windy here yet again today. Getting slightly worried about a summer which might turn dry, especially early. I agree on turning dry this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, it has been steady. Windy here yet again today. Getting slightly worried about a summer which might turn dry, especially early. I've been waiting on dry weather for 5 years. Once that 2016 drought broke its been incredibly rare to have any extended dry weather here. I think we had one dry month a few years ago from mid September into October. The water table is basically as full as it can possibly be over this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 I don't know but, not only are some things looking that way but, I also have a gut feeling we go dry and hot this summer. I hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 We might go dry but 2016 dry was a anomaly. That whole year was messed up. I remember it was so warm in March that Bermuda was 90% in and then the Easter freezer happened and killed so many plants, trees and shrubs. Seems like we had almost a week of below freezing temps at night and a few nights it was low 20’s. Then from August to November it rained like just a few inches. It was so dry that Bermuda went dormant. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 On 4/2/2022 at 11:36 PM, John1122 said: I've been waiting on dry weather for 5 years. Once that 2016 drought broke its been incredibly rare to have any extended dry weather here. I think we had one dry month a few years ago from mid September into October. The water table is basically as full as it can possibly be over this way. You all have done really well. It is either feast or famine here. March was very dry at TRI. I have found it is very tough to make-up for a dry month during spring. Just looking at the 12z GFS, this appears to be a year where the snows at higher elevations may not stop until late in the season. After several warm weeks, we may be getting ready to return to normal or below. My lettuce in my garden has been struggling due to warm temps during the afternoon and low ground moisture. Hoping that changes back to a more normal spring-like temp cycle during the next few weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 It’s been dry here too this month! According to old folklore, one of the things you never want to see in spring and summer is a rainbow. They usually portend long periods of dry or relatively dry weather coming up. Unfortunately for me on March 23, there was a rainbow after we picked up 0.36in of rain. The last system this past week put out 0.06 on Wed night and 0.04in on Thursday. This put my monthly total at 2.43in. Looking at model output for tomorrow it looks like NE TN is in a relative minimum again for precip. Not what you want to see when it’s getting dry. Hopefully we get back to a more normal rainfall pattern here soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 I can't remember our last dry month. I was surprised by the fires last week because it has remained so wet around here. We were way above normal rain for March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 6, 2022 Share Posted April 6, 2022 So, snow showers Saturday night and Sunday? Looks like there could at least be a dusting for that ever-favored area in western Cumberland County we talked about earlier in the year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 MRX is going with 4 - 6 above 5000 feet or so. I may have a chance to go above 5000 feet on Saturday, there will be pictures if I do. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Also: The deterministic models are becoming more unstable for Friday and Saturday due to the cold air will producing very steep low-level lapse rates especially during the afternoon hours. Ensembles and deterministic models are in agreement now with CAPE of 100 to nearly 200+ so plenty of shower activity expected, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours Friday. The vertical CAPE profile is deep enough within the -14C degree layer or colder to produce isolated thunder. Would not be surprised to receive reports of graupel or even small hail with the stronger showers and storms. Thunder graup ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 And we repeat the pattern of extreme warmth followed by snow. Whew! We've been doing this pattern swing thing for over three months. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: So, snow showers Saturday night and Sunday? Looks like there could at least be a dusting for that ever-favored area in western Cumberland County we talked about earlier in the year. If the MRX snow map is correct, looks like a dusting to .5 will be very common across NE TN. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 I’m ready for spring to stay. It’s been a cold soccer season so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 I’m ready for spring to stay. It’s been a cold soccer season so far. This is the first year my son (7) has played and it’s been almost miserable to this point. He’s had 3 games and 9 practices, all of those trips to field have been brutal but one. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 That was a cold 12z GFS run. Looks like we may skip Spring and go straight to Summer at this rate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 On 4/7/2022 at 4:54 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: MRX is going with 4 - 6 above 5000 feet or so. I may have a chance to go above 5000 feet on Saturday, there will be pictures if I do. Any chance they're wrong and we might get more? Probably the last snow anyway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Snow here in Crossville :O. Like 38 degrees. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 41 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Any chance they're wrong and we might get more? Probably the last snow anyway... I've found KMRX estimated snow accumulation boundaries to be about 1000 ft too high, at least up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Snow stuck south of Spencer for like ten minutes when it got down to 34. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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