John1122 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Meteorological Spring hits March 1st, thus begins the quiet season on the forums. This thread should suffice until fall for any long range disco. I doubt the last flakes have fallen this year but I don't really expect another widespread winter threat either. It was definitely a Plateau to Western Tennessee winter. Tough for Eastern areas not to do any better with virtually the entire month of January being BN for temps. The flood threat, as it always seems to be these days, is definitely elevated again this spring. The severe threat, I'll leave that to Jeff, Jax, and the rest of the severe gurus. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 If the GEFS is to be believed, we will start March cool and then warm up until mid-month at least. Probably my biggest hope as we hit spring is no early long duration well AN temps in March that cause things to bloom early. Carvers report on the weeklies make that seem not so big a worry. Hopefully they verify. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 LR models are really starting to bang the drum for a cold shot right around or just after March 10th. This wouldn't be a spring like cold air mass, but one more like winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 Probably overblown but no drought worries any time soon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 Gonna be so warm this week I expect lots of flowers and blooms will be coming. March is definitely coming in like a lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Looks like a decent trough amplification around March 12th. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 So, anyone have an early thoughts on the Spring/Summer? A continuation of a week of flood a week of dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 @Weathertree2, I think it is going to depend on the ENSO state. If we switch to El Nino and don't have a Nina hangover, I think it should be tolerable with maybe a seasonable fall. The hot, dry, never-ending summers are La Nina's typically. I will probably lean seasonal to maybe slightly above for summer, and seasonal for spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Looks to me like modeling is seeing something around March 12th with a strong cold shot coming a few days after. Enjoy the spring warmth. Ugly pattern seems to be on many models after the 12th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Hrmmm... 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 18z GFS says that winter is not over. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3" snow mean on the 18z GEFS for NE TN for the middle of March! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Still looking like some possible snow around Mid March 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 The 12z Euro bringing the juice mid to late run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 It would be wild if I got more snow after March 1st than I did prior to that. The Euro Weeklies are cold and have nearly a 6" snow mean over NE TN....not bad for portions of the state considering it is March and like 95 degrees today - hyperbole. This cold shot could be nasty. The GEFS MJO this morning (CPC reference) was rotating back to phases 2-3 which are cold when centered on March - the coldest phases of that cycle for this time of year. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 I could be wrong, but I think the chances of a winter storm around the 12th are increasing for at least some portion of the forum area. The 0z Euro has a pretty good signal. This is one of these "wave riding a front" deals. Just too far out to get any decent handle on the details, but the setup is there on modeling - even if every run doesn't hit the jackpot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 If we do get a decent March Storm,the 74-75 analog will have worked out somewhat. Of course no analogues going to be exact or even real close to carbon copy. I actually feel pretty confident in a decent snowfall this time. Hopefully it pans out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 GFS still showing some snow around the 13th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Basically, modeling is not sure how to handle the wave that is developing on a cold depicted for March 12th. The 6z GFS shows a best case scenario/partial phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Basically, modeling is not sure how to handle the wave that is developing on a cold depicted for March 12th. The 6z GFS shows a best case scenario/partial phase. That run was a serious, mid-winter type storm. It was mid 20s with heavy sleet and snow across the forum area. Backed off now, but man, that would be a sweet close to the winter season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 2 hours ago, John1122 said: That run was a serious, mid-winter type storm. It was mid 20s with heavy sleet and snow across the forum area. Backed off now, but man, that would be a sweet close to the winter season. The 18Z GFS looks about as good for NE TN as did at any point during winter. LOL!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 We have the Carter's Valley snow hole and the Hardin Valley snow hole on the 6z GFS run: We also have a Strat split right now: With the potential for another one in the long range. Convection from last weeks western Pac kind of puttered out so we never saw the big SOI drop I thought we would, but I was pretty impressed by how the MJO just tanked into the COD this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Th 6z GFS run has system back. It looks like models is looking at three scenarios. 1. Cold front passage with snow showers behind the front. 0z CMC 2. A wave of low pressure forms to our SE and allow for a bigger snow event. 6z GFS 3. Cutter through E TN which allows for snow in middle and west forum areas. 0z Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z GFS is a fairly decent looking system. CMC now cuts through middle TN, and also has a big storm at the end of the run. Pretty big signal showing up right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z Euro has a good synoptic set-up, but a big disorganized with the well-placed slp. The low track is nearly perfect. A bit stronger, and that low would be a boomer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 The GFS may be overamping, which seems to be an issue with it since it was the Para. It would be nice if it came to pass. The cold is pretty impressive with a straightforward snow sounding as we get in the commahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 The 18z GFS is a pretty big storm for much of the forum area...especially middle and west, but not limited to there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 I definitely agree with John about the amping issue. If the GFS is not amped, that is a huge storm. As is, it is pretty good. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 06z GFS says Kaboom! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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