Cary67 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Looks like some classic pseudo spring weather settling in for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Looks like some classic pseudo spring weather settling in for awhile.I’ve been too uninterested to make an updated post in the spring thread, but another pattern change has occurred.This pattern will be heavily influenced by a -NAO, leading to a mean trough axis across the N Plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Overview. So far I'm hovering around 1C while the heavier rain is moving through. Dundalk according to the often unreliable TWN, is -1C with "heavy freezing rain" current obs . Last I saw that was likely 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 3" of slop recorded at the local coop site this morning. Just some snow showers lingering from the east fetch. This stuff is perfect for snowman building. Looks like 5-14" reported at locations up the shore from Silver Bay to the border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Kitchen sink winter storm here. Had freezing rain/sleet all night and then a changeover to snow around 11 this morning. Temps barely cold enough but still a decent amount of ice accretion on things. Could see a few inches of slushy snow through this evening, then remaining unsettled with snow/mix chances through Saturday. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve been too uninterested to make an updated post in the spring thread, but another pattern change has occurred. This pattern will be heavily influenced by a -NAO, leading to a mean trough axis across the N Plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast. Only way to save this is a jacked clipper somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Baum said: Only way to save this is a jacked clipper somewhere. western troughing should set back up first week of April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 More rain this morning boosted my final event total to 1.54". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 western troughing should set back up first week of AprilI wouldn’t go as far as to say that. Currently no real sign that the current PNA regime is going to change any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 My current March precip total, 3.44", makes this my wettest March in thirteen years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Just heard some thunder with the temp being 1.5C or 35F, that might be a new personal record as the previous lowest with lightning/thunder was 2.5C or so. Never had it below freezing around here. I've been getting bursts of heavy rain starting late afternoon and I'm sitting at 17mm/0.67" so far today. Dundalk ON continues to have freezing rain at times heavy; I'd hate to be a resident there today. Another inch or so of that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 The rain yesterday and this morning totaled 1.45". I reset the tippy bucket when I got home from work seeing how there was a 10 to 11 hour dry window. I will keep the upper low drizzle rain separate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Sleet mixing in with rain this morning as the occluded low winds down over our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Disturbance spinning down through IA.., 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I wouldn’t go as far as to say that. Currently no real sign that the current PNA regime is going to change any time soon. Better now than in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5. Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to. But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5. Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to. But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway.Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 14 hours ago, Hoosier said: Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5. Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to. But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway. Please start the thread, so we can kill it. Thanks in advance. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs: 00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Front moving through with light snow. Gusty NW winds should pick up later. Looks like chilly winter-like weather the next few days. GFS likes to keep a significant system at the end of the month, and I do have something for April 1st in the Holiday 2022 thread. But that's few days off yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Later on could get a little interesting from a squally perspective. SPC even has a general thunder area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs: 00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out. I took a peek at that system. Regardless of the progged paltry instability, I would expect at least a modest/lower end severe threat to materialize in the sub given such a dynamic system w/robust forcing. And obviously even a little bit of instability could ratchet up the threat given the other favorable factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Later on could get a little interesting from a squally perspective. SPC even has a general thunder area. I threw up a Facebook post on our EMA page this morning warning of quickly changing visibility with some squalls. Fortunately, it will be in the late evening/AM hours down here, so will hopefully be low impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Models are trending toward a powerful great lakes storm next week as the northern and southern waves strongly phase together. Unfortunately, the large upper low cuts off and pulls a cold airmass over our region for several days in early April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Later on could get a little interesting from a squally perspective. SPC even has a general thunder area.Things look very supportive for squalls, lightning/thunder, graupel and higher wind gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Let's do it Mesoscale Discussion 0337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251918Z - 252145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the region through late afternoon, some accompanied by a mix of frozen precipitation, strong wind gusts approaching severe limits, and occasional sharply reduced visibilities. DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclonic, northwesterly jet streak is in the process of digging across and southeast of the Upper Midwest. This includes speeds within its core increasing in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb and 50 kt around 850 mb. Within the exit region of this jet streak, strong lower/mid tropospheric cooling is ongoing (including temps of -16 to -32C in the 700-500 mb layer), contributing to pronounced steepening of low-level lapse rates. This is currently becoming most prominent across parts of northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin into northern Illinois, aided by insolation, where deepening convective development is underway. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that the destabilizing thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection reaching 15-20 thousand plus foot depths, and perhaps becoming capable of occasionally producing lightning. Given the cold nature of these profiles, including rather low freezing levels within a couple thousand feet above ground level, the well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer probably will allow for a transition from rain to melting frozen precipitation ranging from graupel to snow in the stronger showers/downdrafts. This may also enhance the downward mixing of potentially damaging wind gusts to the surface, as activity develops southeastward through 22-00Z. ..Kerr.. 03/25/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Severe t’storm warning for portions of the metro. 72MPH wind gust at ARR recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Had some graupel. That upstream severe warned stuff looks on track to move in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Rain snow mix with 50+ mph winds here. Fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Miss southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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