March 2022 General Discussion

[weatherbo]

Great journal by John Dee.  He captures life in the great white north perfectly. I wish him health and wellness.

 

 

March 13, 2022

There is an old bar (probably refurbished by now) on the west shoreline of Lake Delevan in southern WI. It was one of the establishments that I would visit from time to time, when I was not behind the oak creating libations for others at the west end of Geneva Lake, inside Chuck’s. I was not a “regular” there and it’s has been 30+ years since I stepped foot inside, but I can still remember the smell of stalk beer mixed with slowly decaying wood. The building itself was in need of some stabilization, or perhaps demolition. From the front door to the front of the bar, roughly a distance of 20-25 feet, the floor sloped down no less than 8″. I suppose the owner thought it was a clever and continent way to encourage customers to step up to the bar and spend some money.

It is still standing and still functioning at a tavern. Back in my roudier days, it was what one might call a dive-bar. Most of the customers were the hard drinking type, that did not have far to weave and/or stumble to get home. Drinks were cheap and unless Choop was behind the bar, there really was not much of a reason for me to even drive by, let alone go in side. I have no idea what the atmosphere is like now, if they fixed the sloped floor and if the smell has changed, but this entry is not about the INBO, it’s about the in-between up here.

That in-between is of a different nature. It is the time of the year that separates two distinct seasons. The long, cold, snowy and magical winter of the Keweenaw with warm, sunny and magical summer of the Keweenaw. There are many places in the mid-latitudes where the difference in seasons is dramatic, but I would have to say that the difference that the Keweenaw experiences is about as dramatic as it gets. Not only are the differences so extreme, but they each are so beautiful! Many would complain about the severity of our winter, but long with the severity comes exquisite beauty. The ground and other objects are not just coated in snow, they are frosted in a layer of white that looks like a cake decorator who is infatuated with creme frosting had their way with things and did not stop until no more frosting could be applied before the whole thing collapsed. Who have seen a mailbox with three feet of snow delicately sitting on top of it? Who have seen a row of balsam trees with their branches so laden in snow they look like military senturys standing post in white overcoats? Who has driven down a side street with snowbanks piled so high, you can only see the upper floor of all of the houses? That is the magic of winter in the Keweeenaw.

The transformation to summer is not done quickly. Typically we get a tease of warmer temps in late February or early March that helps to generate smiles on the locals faces. The highly focused muscle patterns that are used to help keep the cold and wind from causing excessive pain on the exposed faces of the inhabitants disappear for a moment. People will stop and chat with others, letting the sun warm their faces while pleasantries are exchanged about what a beautiful day it is.

Those teases typically do not last longer than a day or two. Many times their warmth and relaxed environment is replaced by a large dumping of snow and invasion of arctic air. Perhaps a week later, the next tease is paying a visit and perhaps it’s departure is not punctuated by as severe a snow event and/or blast of bitterly cold air behind the snow.

Another thing that takes shape during the in-between is the gain in minutes where the sun is above the horizon becomes much more noticable. We are gaining a little more than 3 minutes a day in available sunshine, which will equate to around 25-30 minutes over a weeks time. That means, the sun spends nearly 2 hours more above the horizon than it did just a month ago. 

Not only are the minutes of sunlight increasing but so too are the strength of those rays. By early March, a sunny day with temps in the upper teens to low 20’s will see the snow on roadways melt off due to the roadways absorption of energy from the sun. The main highways clear first, but then will have wet areas where the snowmelt is running across them. The side roads melt slower. They have not been maintained as aggressively. Less scrapes with the plow trucks and little, if any, treatments to help melt the snow and ice on them. Depending on how often they get plowed and also what kind of roadway they are, they can become nearly or literally impassable during the spring “break-up”. Either the mat of packed down snow is so thick that when it melts to become more like slush, it is too deep to pass through, or in most cases, the roadway surface is not solid. Perhaps it is dirt, crushed rock or some kind of an amalgam, but as the snow melts and the water from it seeps into the ground, the road becomes a quagmire of ruts 6-12″ deep. This is when the county will close the road until it dries enough that they can send down a grader to flatten out and pack down the road and make it passable. The slow and sometimes reverse direction of our spring can see this road closing process happen many times.

Amongst the living creatures the in-between can be the toughest time of the year. They have already had to survive what would be the most severe winter ever for many spots across the country. The snow is typically deepest and most solid it has been all season, making it very difficult for them to dig down to find food. Sometimes there only hope is that the snow is deep and solid enough that they can reach branches they could not before and steal a brown and fibery meal. The deep we go into the break-up of winter, the more food that starts to become available. First it is some small shrubs that were buried by the first big snow of the season, then, eventually the grasses  begin to appear. The blades of grass are dead and may even be coated with some snow mold in spots, but a few days of sunshine can green up some of the grasses and provide a more desirable meal.

Green grass does not signal the end of winter as it does in many other places. The Keweenaw is usually good for a couple more snows after the greening of the grass. Even the early blooming plants like tulips, daffodil and trillium have seen their fair share of snow blankets put over them in the years I have lived here.

The in-between is generally bug free. At least from the biting kind. The bees, wasps and hornets will show their faces as the days grow warmer, but the real pests of the Keweenaw- the mosquitos, black flies, deer flies and horse flies are still weeks away. The latter two months away.

The in-between is also a time of great patience. Some are still hoping for one or two big snowstorms so they can get their final fix of powder play before putting the winter toys away. Sometimes their wishes are granted, other times not. However, the Keweenaw is one of those places where you have a greater chance of the big spring snowstorm to hit than others. On the other side of the coin, others are chomping at the bit to break out the summer toys. Motorcycles, boats, golf clubs, bicycles, fishing poles, ATVs, you name it. It is their wait that is usually long and wrought with setbacks. Early March in the Keweenaw is purely winter. Mid-March is where the teases will begin to appear. The end of March and early April sees the the sun strong enough and temps usually warm enough where the net change in the snow situation is a loss. By mid-April, the low snow areas are usually snow free, with the others to follow by the end of the month. However, there are standout years in which a solid snowpack will remain into May. Life in the Keweenaw is like a box of chocolates!

This past week was the early stages of the in-between for this season. No warm temps, some light snow, but nothing too meaningful. The main snows were Friday. A few snow showers in the morning and then the front came through and we had some decent snow falling for a few hours into the early overnight hours. I had to go to Houghton Friday afternoon and with the morning snow showers putting down a fresh 1/2″ or so, the west winds that kicked up to 35-45 mph made for some challenging driving conditions on Bootjack Road, especially in the open areas like the “Green Spot”. Once in town, the Lift Bridge would come and go into view with the varying snowfall intensity. Crossing the bridge and looking east towards downtown Houghton left us with a blank canvas.

A day earlier, all was calm and bright, but cold, with temps in the mid teens for highs. Pretty unusual for early March in the Keweenaw. That was the story for just about all the week. Cold temps for this time of the year. The sun tried to melt the snow, but could only succeed where the plows had scraped patches of pavement clear and that pavement was able to heat up. That was the look out onto the northern end of Keweenaw Bay. The ice just locked in the entire bay solid about a week or so ago. It will probably remain that way for another week or two before breaking up for the summer.

The slow melting going on has created a Hangfire off of our front porch. The back roof let loose a week or so ago and left 10″ thick ice on the ground. Where the back door is, the ice fell and stuck in the snow vertically, creating a 10″ thick and 4 foot wide ice wall that the dogs have to navigate when they go out into the backyard!

The lack of a thaw and deep snow even in yaring areas like Jacobsville have put a lot of stress on the deer herd. They are moving quite slowly through the woods or in their escape from the road. Last night Grace and I came home from having dinner and this poor one was already asleep at the end of the driveway. It did not even move as we pulled closer, parked and walked from the truck to the shop and from the shop to the house. I did pull a few apples from the fridge, as well as a couple of husks of romaine lettuce and tossed them right to the deer. It did not eat them or even get up for around 30 minutes. Then Nora noticed about 34 minutes later that it had moved and this morning the food was gone. So not sure if it ate things, or another critter, but I sure was worried we would find a dead deer laying there come morning, so I was happy it got up and left around 45 minutes after we came home.

Until next week.

Good Night From the Keweenaw..
–JD

[beavis1729]

Thanks for posting this, Bo. That is beautifully written; humble poetry that captures a deep connection with nature. 

[kevlon62]

Dee the man.

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Quite a day for a weather enthusiast. Started the day at 14° with wind chills below zero. Then the south wind brought a mini driving fluffy snowstorm complete with drifting and very slick roads. Then once the snow stopped, temps, then up to 23, began a rapid rise, forecast into the mid 40s by late afternoon. 

 

Today's 1.4" puts me at 42.3" on the season. DTW also had 1.4", putting then at 42.2".   Highest amounts today were around 2" in the southern suburbs.

This is not my picture, but a friend posted this. Really tells the tale of yesterday (high/low 46/14).

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Rain/Snow mix this morning turned to steady snow with big fat flakes. Accumulating rather quickly on the roads.

[Harry]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is not my picture, but a friend posted this. Really tells the tale of yesterday (high/low 46/14).

 

That is how it looked here yesterday. A quick couple inches. A snowy March so far. Seasonal total for here officially at 66.3 which is a inch above normal. 

Hope all has been well with everyone! 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

0.8” of snow this morning. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

That is how it looked here yesterday. A quick couple inches. A snowy March so far. Seasonal total for here officially at 66.3 which is a inch above normal. 

Hope all has been well with everyone! 

Same here, only we had add 1.4". But it was low visibility. Extremely slippery. Then afternoon was like early Spring.

 

Pretty good here, hope you are well!

 

Not a snowy March here, a pretty average Winter in the end but of course with plenty of ups and downs.

Nov- 6.6"

Dec- 3.3"

Jan- 9.4"

Feb- 20.2"

Mar- 2.8"

42.3" so far

[Snowstorms]

Surprise snow event across the GTA today associated with a fast moving disturbance. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3" when all is said and done. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3/15 is the first day above 50 this year in Minneapolis with a high of 52. Snow was melting off like crazy, lots of grassy spots showing up. 

[hawkeye_wx]

It's looking like the GFS may have scored a major win with the late-week system.  For days the GFS was way out on its own tracking a wrapped-up soaker up through Iowa and Wisconsin.  Other models have consistently been weaker and well south... until today.  They've all trended much closer to the GFS.  The GFS does continue to show significant accumulating snow in Iowa, which is probably bunk.  We could all use a nice soaker.

00z Euro

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's looking like the GFS may have scored a major win with the late-week system.  For days the GFS was way out on its own tracking a wrapped-up soaker up through Iowa and Wisconsin.  Other models have consistently been weaker and well south... until today.  They've all trended much closer to the GFS.  The GFS does continue to show significant accumulating snow in Iowa, which is probably bunk.  We could all use a nice soaker.

00z Euro

As noted many times, GFS has sucked all winter especially with southern stream snow threats, but I thought it did pretty well over quite a long lead time with the general timing and placement of the March 5th severe event as well as the one coming up for this Friday (although obviously not good for crucial details like 0-3KM cape that are critical for event magnitude). Of course, I wasn't really comparing it to the Euro or other models, so it's possible they did equally well, or better.

[CheeselandSkies]

From MKX:

 

Quote

Friday through Saturday night:

Attention turns to the arrival of a Panhandle Low progged to lift
across Illinois and Indiana on Friday, then across the eastern
Great Lakes on Saturday. For the last couple of days there have
been large discrepancies amongst the ensembles and deterministic
guidance in regards to the track of the system and what our
precipitaion chances look like across central and southern
Wisconsin. The GFS/GEFS solutions have remained fairly stable over
the last few days, with the surface low tracking just south of
Wisconsin and much of the area seeing widespread precipitation,
including the potential for some accumulating snow. Early this
morning, the latest 00Z ECMWF and Canadian all came in with a
significant shift to the north, coming into better agreement with
the GFS/GEFS. The EPS/CMC have also trended in this direction as
well, with many more members now showing the potential for
widespread precipitation Friday/Saturday.

Therefore, upon coordination with neighboring offices we did make
some major changes to the forecast for Friday/Saturday. Chances
for precipitation have increased dramatically, with gusty
northeast to north winds developing as the system passed by to our
south. These gusty northeast winds and cooler conditions on the
north side of the surface low will result in a fairly raw day
compared to our mid-week warmth, with wind chills looking to
remain in the 20s on Friday inland from Lake Michigan. As for
precipitation, there remains uncertainty in regards to the onset
timing as it will take time for dry mid-level air to saturate
down. Once precipitation starts there does appear to be a sharp
transition from snow to rain along a southwest to northeast
oriented line. The questions that remain are: 1) how far
west/east will this line move and 2) where temperatures profiles
remain cold enough to support all snow, how much snow will
accumulate.

Now that deterministic and ensemble guidance seems to be merging
towards one common solution, expect the precipitation details to
become refined over the upcoming days. There remains a very large
spread in the potential for snowfall amongst the various ensemble
data sets. The only thing that really can be noted at this time is
that snow that does fall will be of the wet and heavy variety.

Sunday through next week Wednesday:

As the late week system exits the region, expect a dry end to the
weekend with a gradual warming trend as upper-level ridging builds
into the region and return flow develops. Another Panhandle Low is
progged to develop and lift northeast towards the region next
week. Depending on the track of the system, we could stay on the
active side with additional chances for precipitation next week.
Stay tuned!

Love it. This is spring. Not this dry and boring crap we have had most of the last few years.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Overnight low of 37. Lots of ponding water on the frozen ground. Airport is reporting 1” snow depth, so the streak lives another day. Backyard glacier is quickly becoming more dog turd then snow. 

[Baum]

^

at this juncture I prefer my climo better.

[Hoosier]

ORD managed to tag 70.

[Torchageddon]

Today's forecast here busted horribly, 13C for a high with 5 hours sunlight - instead got to 9C with less than 2 hours of sun. Somehow after this my point for tomorrow was raised to 18C, mainly sunny (after showing rain and 14C) . I took a screengrab of that this time, can't wait.

[Chambana]

Tagged 72, it’s rare to have virtually no breeze this early into spring and be this warm, today was top shelf. 
 

bring on green grass, and thunderstorms. 
 

side note, used the Blackstone and made Philly cheesesteaks, these things are awesome!

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Tagged 72, it’s rare to have virtually no breeze this early into spring and be this warm, today was top shelf. 
 

bring on green grass, and thunderstorms. 
 

side note, used the Blackstone and made Philly cheesesteaks, these things are awesome!

On that subject, I remember February 2017 being near 70 with little wind.  That was extraordinary.

[thomp2mp]

66° for a high this afternoon, broke out the disc golf basket for some throws

too bad the weekend looks like wet

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Really foggy in Toronto this evening. Almost pea soup fog. Very Dickensian feel outside.

[SchaumburgStormer]

14 hours ago, Chambana said:

Tagged 72, it’s rare to have virtually no breeze this early into spring and be this warm, today was top shelf. 
 

bring on green grass, and thunderstorms. 
 

side note, used the Blackstone and made Philly cheesesteaks, these things are awesome!

Been thinking of pulling the trigger on one to compliment the traeger and weber charcoal. This may have been the recommendation i needed, haha. 

[Brian D]

Boring, but nice weather. Temp's have been running in the 40's, with 30's for lows the last couple days. Melting is happening slowly but steady. With morning lows staying at or above freezing, the days warmth can work the snowpack much easier than if it had to put energy into warming it up first. Dirty snow banks are really shrinking now.

[CheeselandSkies]

Been so focused on the forecasts for the nice weather yesterday and the wintry mix/potential snow for tomorrow, I completely forgot it was supposed to rain today.

[Hoosier]

10 years ago, we were in the midst of Morch.  Not quite a repeat this month, but have been enjoying the warmer days like today.

[Chambana]

Today was a carbon copy of yesterday, with a tad more clouds. Just top shelf weather for mid March. Rain moves in tomorrow, should green up the grass, which has taken off the last 24-36 hours. 

[Torchageddon]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

10 years ago, we were in the midst of Morch.  Not quite a repeat this month, but have been enjoying the warmer days like today.

The key 10 days of the Great March Heatwave were some of the happiest days I've had.

[weatherbo]

9 hours ago, Brian D said:

Boring, but nice weather. Temp's have been running in the 40's, with 30's for lows the last couple days. Melting is happening slowly but steady. With morning lows staying at or above freezing, the days warmth can work the snowpack much easier than if it had to put energy into warming it up first. Dirty snow banks are really shrinking now.

Yes.  Boring but very nice.  It was 52 yesterday with lots of sun and 50 today with a bit more clouds.  The melt has been slow to get going... I've lost around 7 inches of snow depth the past few days.  There is still a very dense 28-30 inches otg and a thaw refreeze pattern will only reinforce its staying power.

With a colder and possibly snowier pattern later next week, this is fake spring #1.

[WestMichigan]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

10 years ago, we were in the midst of Morch.  Not quite a repeat this month, but have been enjoying the warmer days like today.

We don't need to do this again that is for sure.

[Torchageddon]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

We don't need to do this again that is for sure.

Why not? It was the freeze in April that caused the damage. It brings an interesting point up whether its possible to have Morch and then a April/May that are also above normal or even avg in temps - I asked a met this and the answer was simply no. You can predict a monthly avg just based on the magnitude departure of a month before it?

Yesterday did actually reach 18C but it was mostly filtered sunlight and then cloudy by evening. Waterloo ON got to 19C, Windsor and likely other towns in extreme SON got their first 20. Its very dark this morning.