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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What snow threat ?   ... cold shot, perhaps

Yeah we never had a distinct threat. We had a decent synoptic pattern for 3/31ish but big phasing in central US is going to make that a cutter. There’s still plenty of residual blocking though behind that system so I wouldn’t be surprised if a threat does materialize the first week of April. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall seeing Winterwerewolf hanging onto a threat and Mets had zoned in on the 03/27-04/01 period with a deep EC trough. Someone even posted all the op runs had it.. and George was posting images and very excitable. That threat vanished 

No the longwave pattern is still pretty similar. The storm is there it just cuts well west because of some phasing with the PV lobe in central Canada. 
 

It was a period of interest given the pattern but we never got a legit threat out of it. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we never had a distinct threat. We had a decent synoptic pattern for 3/31ish but big phasing in central US is going to make that a cutter. There’s still plenty of residual blocking though behind that system so I wouldn’t be surprised if a threat does materialize the first week of April. 

How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That happens all the time. If part of that PV phases in, boom. 

Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north.

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17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Slightly below avg snowfall, Below avg snow retention for 21-22, Slightly better results from 20-21 for here, F to a D-.

F, ratter here. Sure, it was cold with a plethora of penny events. It was forgettable. Looking forward for this slow bleed out to stop so we can to cut the limb off…and start real spring.

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north.

The block is too far north. You’d want something more in Quebec for a scenario like this, not in Greenland. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall seeing Winterwerewolf hanging onto a threat and Mets had zoned in on the 03/27-04/01 period with a deep EC trough. Someone even posted all the op runs had it.. and George was posting images and very excitable. That threat vanished 

I wasn’t hanging on, was just asking what they were seeing? They explained it, and said the pattern could certainly support a winter threat, that’s all.   
 

And as far as that phasing is concerned in the center of the country, it would not surprise me if that doesn’t phase as efficiently as it’s showing right now. All winter long nothing has really phased efficiently like models were showing early on, so that’s not a done deal yet either being a week out still.  
 

But honestly, I’m ready for consistent spring weather now, but we know that won’t really happen yet either. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I wasn’t hanging on, was just asking what they were seeing? They explained it, and said the pattern could certainly support a winter threat, that’s all.   
 

And as far as that phasing is concerned in the center of the country, it would not surprise me if that doesn’t phase as efficiently as it’s showing right now. All winter long nothing has really phased efficiently like models were showing early on, so that’s not a done deal yet either being a week out still.  
 

But honestly, I’m ready for consistent spring weather now, but we know that won’t really happen yet either. 

It’s different now though. The ‘all winter long nothing has…’ isn’t therefore applicable unfortunately. 

The limitations plaguing winter,   destructive spacing and velocity interference, are no longer as prevalent. 

Flow’s slower with shortened wave lengths … it’ll phase more proficiently - in the relative sense.

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EPS/GFS is BS for second half of next week. Yea sure that Wednesday shortwave could cut into Manitoba but it’s not eroding the confluence over the northeast US. What most likely happens is it does cut, but then cuts off quickly and fills and we still have a trough overhead with the BZ over the northern mid Atlantic, primed for a secondary. Snow threat is legit through the 1st. 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s break some record low maxes for Monday. 
 

ORH record is 28F and BOS record is 33F. 

29F in CON in 1966.

With bare ground idk if we do it. We're getting to the point where we have to tack on a couple on the 18z 2m temps wit sun and bare ground. 4/9/97 at CON was 29F but that had -20C 850s getting near the Lakes Region. On the 6z euro it's a good 4C warmer.

I'll say no records, but cold enough to be annoying. Gotta watch for an early, cheap 5z high as well if the CAA doesn't come in fast enough.

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