ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: What snow threat ? ... cold shot, perhaps Yeah we never had a distinct threat. We had a decent synoptic pattern for 3/31ish but big phasing in central US is going to make that a cutter. There’s still plenty of residual blocking though behind that system so I wouldn’t be surprised if a threat does materialize the first week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 I recall seeing Winterwerewolf hanging onto a threat and Mets had zoned in on the 03/27-04/01 period with a deep EC trough. Someone even posted all the op runs had it.. and George was posting images and very excitable. That threat vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I recall seeing Winterwerewolf hanging onto a threat and Mets had zoned in on the 03/27-04/01 period with a deep EC trough. Someone even posted all the op runs had it.. and George was posting images and very excitable. That threat vanished No the longwave pattern is still pretty similar. The storm is there it just cuts well west because of some phasing with the PV lobe in central Canada. It was a period of interest given the pattern but we never got a legit threat out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Stupid 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we never had a distinct threat. We had a decent synoptic pattern for 3/31ish but big phasing in central US is going to make that a cutter. There’s still plenty of residual blocking though behind that system so I wouldn’t be surprised if a threat does materialize the first week of April. How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, George001 said: How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block. That happens all the time. If part of that PV phases in, boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, George001 said: How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block. Cigars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cigars? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: That depends how you define ram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That happens all the time. If part of that PV phases in, boom. Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 hours ago, tamarack said: Winter 21-22: "Not as horrible as 20-21, as D+ beats F." Slightly below avg snowfall, Below avg snow retention for 21-22, Slightly better results from 20-21 for here, F to a D-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: You and Runnaway would be definitely bitching about the 24 to 36 from ECT east It’s easy calling us weenies out who consistently have missed out on historical and/or once in a lifetime events when they themselves are smilin’ and jackin’…off, to them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Slightly below avg snowfall, Below avg snow retention for 21-22, Slightly better results from 20-21 for here, F to a D-. F, ratter here. Sure, it was cold with a plethora of penny events. It was forgettable. Looking forward for this slow bleed out to stop so we can to cut the limb off…and start real spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, George001 said: Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north. The block is too far north. You’d want something more in Quebec for a scenario like this, not in Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Radar is lighting up upstream….should be a rainy night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I recall seeing Winterwerewolf hanging onto a threat and Mets had zoned in on the 03/27-04/01 period with a deep EC trough. Someone even posted all the op runs had it.. and George was posting images and very excitable. That threat vanished I wasn’t hanging on, was just asking what they were seeing? They explained it, and said the pattern could certainly support a winter threat, that’s all. And as far as that phasing is concerned in the center of the country, it would not surprise me if that doesn’t phase as efficiently as it’s showing right now. All winter long nothing has really phased efficiently like models were showing early on, so that’s not a done deal yet either being a week out still. But honestly, I’m ready for consistent spring weather now, but we know that won’t really happen yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I wasn’t hanging on, was just asking what they were seeing? They explained it, and said the pattern could certainly support a winter threat, that’s all. And as far as that phasing is concerned in the center of the country, it would not surprise me if that doesn’t phase as efficiently as it’s showing right now. All winter long nothing has really phased efficiently like models were showing early on, so that’s not a done deal yet either being a week out still. But honestly, I’m ready for consistent spring weather now, but we know that won’t really happen yet either. It’s different now though. The ‘all winter long nothing has…’ isn’t therefore applicable unfortunately. The limitations plaguing winter, destructive spacing and velocity interference, are no longer as prevalent. Flow’s slower with shortened wave lengths … it’ll phase more proficiently - in the relative sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 I would love to fast forward to Father’s Day at this point vs enduring New England spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 One bite everyone knows the rule. Closed sub 520 ULL passing underneath brings surprises. Squall city. Grauple to snow? This sounding is in the Berks 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: One bite everyone knows the rule. Closed sub 520 ULL passing underneath brings surprises. Squall city. Grauple to snow? This sounding is in the Berks Hold me 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hold me Then Kevs hood. Potential is there for some winter. Then a day of deep winter in spring. Hold your side piece tightly to keep warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Then Kevs hood. Potential is there for some winter. Then a day of deep winter in spring. Hold your side piece tightly to keep warm. Love guns straight and rigid? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 EPS/GFS is BS for second half of next week. Yea sure that Wednesday shortwave could cut into Manitoba but it’s not eroding the confluence over the northeast US. What most likely happens is it does cut, but then cuts off quickly and fills and we still have a trough overhead with the BZ over the northern mid Atlantic, primed for a secondary. Snow threat is legit through the 1st. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 hours ago, weathafella said: I would love to fast forward to Father’s Day at this point vs enduring New England spring. I’ll even take mother’s day. Skipping cutoff wheel o rhea Hapril’s will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Then Kevs hood. Potential is there for some winter. Then a day of deep winter in spring. Hold your side piece tightly to keep warm. Riveting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Let’s break some record low maxes for Monday. ORH record is 28F and BOS record is 33F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 It's easier to root for record cold when it isn't below zero. Hope for some damaging cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Can’t wait or record low maxes and dry weather. Sweet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Let’s break some record low maxes for Monday. ORH record is 28F and BOS record is 33F. 29F in CON in 1966. With bare ground idk if we do it. We're getting to the point where we have to tack on a couple on the 18z 2m temps wit sun and bare ground. 4/9/97 at CON was 29F but that had -20C 850s getting near the Lakes Region. On the 6z euro it's a good 4C warmer. I'll say no records, but cold enough to be annoying. Gotta watch for an early, cheap 5z high as well if the CAA doesn't come in fast enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can’t wait or record low maxes and dry weather. Sweet. “Gather around grandchildren, let me tell you about March 2022…” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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