CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably won’t mean anything at all Comes right back. Means shit. At 10mb too. Congrats ISS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 It actually splits at 50mb too, but does not last long. I can’t see how that has any impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It actually splits at 50mb too, but does not last long. I can’t see how that has any impact. It’s Just More Voo-Doo BS. Just like not that long ago we were led to believe by some METS(not here) that the MJO drove the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Whether it snows again or not this year, there’s still the possibility, that last Wednesday, was the warmest temperatures many of us see for another six plus weeks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Whether it snows again or not this year, there’s still the possibility, that last Wednesday, was the warmest temperatures many of us see for another six plus weeks. Ya…that’s the scary part. That’ll really suck if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It actually splits at 50mb too, but does not last long. I can’t see how that has any impact. As you would say…voodoo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 March, while not 2012, is mainly fool's gold. Implications of Potential Stratospheric Warming in March It appears as though the European guidance will indeed prove correct with respect to the increased vulnerability of the polar vortex during the month of March, as there is currently agreement between both both the GFS and European suites that a split will occur. Upon a perfunctory examination, it would appear as though the Eastern Mass Weather forecast of a polar vortex split to occur by February 11 was simply a few weeks too late. However, this particular event is induced largely via tropospheric wave breaking, and is this not the product of a SSW. Thus this portion of the Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook will in fact be be wrong, and instead any impacts from this event via cold air outbreaks will be fleeting, as the vortex rapidly recovers the second week of the month. What this does mean is that the month of March is unlikely to be as severe as originally predicted last fall, as noted by the explicitly stated warm risks in the event that the SSW event did not occur. What this does NOT mean is that the month will be absolutely devoid of wintry weather. As evidenced by the month of February, the Pacific will play a role, as well as the overall shape and character of the polar vortex. Note in the image above that while it has indeed recovered and is no longer bifurcated, it is not extremely consolidated and is in fact elongated in the direction of the northeast US. This should allow for a cold source to be at least near by, which should provide winter precipitation throughout at least northern New England, and opportunities points further south. The Pacific will be fairly conducive to cold intrusions through the first week of the month, however, it is unlikely to remain as favorable throughout the duration of the month as February did. There is support for troughing to develop and encompass much of the western US during the second week of the month, perhaps somewhat like the month of December, which certainly implies that warmer risks in the absence of the originally forecast high latitude blocking will prove more viable than during the month of February. However, there will be periods with cold lurking nearby at least though mid month. Thus although the season is unlikely to go out as the lion it was advertised to last fall, there are also some signs that it may not exactly go out as a lamb, either. The month will like finish near average to slightly above average. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: As you would say…voodoo Exactly ... This is not the phenomenon that SSW blah blab b'blah blag. There is a warm intrusion at 5 and 10 mb that's just occurred but it most likely is of insufficient mass to force the sequence into motion. As is the case ...I can't find any guidance that projects that behavior - There are only two aspects from where I am sitting that have any hope in saving an otherwise unceremonious end to winter. 1 being the -EPO ... But frankly, I have my doubts how that will even effect the hemisphere as March solar/radiative forcing begins to normalize the hemisphere. There's time, but it's got to get moving sooner ... 2 proverbial "bowling season" ... this year ( experimental/supposition ) "seems" like a good year for that, to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 18z gfs offers a mid month miracle 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 18z GFS was really close to getting NNE through the torch period with a net gain in snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March, while not 2012, is mainly fool's gold. Implications of Potential Stratospheric Warming in March It appears as though the European guidance will indeed prove correct with respect to the increased vulnerability of the polar vortex during the month of March, as there is currently agreement between both both the GFS and European suites that a split will occur. Upon a perfunctory examination, it would appear as though the Eastern Mass Weather forecast of a polar vortex split to occur by February 11 was simply a few weeks too late. However, this particular event is induced largely via tropospheric wave breaking, and is this not the product of a SSW. Thus this portion of the Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook will in fact be be wrong, and instead any impacts from this event via cold air outbreaks will be fleeting, as the vortex rapidly recovers the second week of the month. What this does mean is that the month of March is unlikely to be as severe as originally predicted last fall, as noted by the explicitly stated warm risks in the event that the SSW event did not occur. What this does NOT mean is that the month will be absolutely devoid of wintry weather. As evidenced by the month of February, the Pacific will play a role, as well as the overall shape and character of the polar vortex. Note in the image above that while it has indeed recovered and is no longer bifurcated, it is not extremely consolidated and is in fact elongated in the direction of the northeast US. This should allow for a cold source to be at least near by, which should provide winter precipitation throughout at least northern New England, and opportunities points further south. The Pacific will be fairly conducive to cold intrusions through the first week of the month, however, it is unlikely to remain as favorable throughout the duration of the month as February did. There is support for troughing to develop and encompass much of the western US during the second week of the month, perhaps somewhat like the month of December, which certainly implies that warmer risks in the absence of the originally forecast high latitude blocking will prove more viable than during the month of February. However, there will be periods with cold lurking nearby at least though mid month. Thus although the season is unlikely to go out as the lion it was advertised to last fall, there are also some signs that it may not exactly go out as a lamb, either. The month will like finish near average to slightly above average. Raymie had a little lamb little lamb little lamb .. Raymie had a little lamb whose fleece did not have snow 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z gfs offers a mid month miracle Wrong sub 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wrong sub but it didn't anyway. it offered a Lakes cutter around the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wrong sub Who says it will not trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: but it didn't anyway. it offered a Lakes cutter around the 12th 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who says it will not trend north contradicting posts always provide confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: but it didn't anyway. it offered a Lakes cutter around the 12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: contradicting posts always provide confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 5 hours ago, tavwtby said: seriously dude, three times this season I had driveway glacier issues, I remember this happened I want to say 00-01? where it was just constantly chopping ice in driveway and walks Three times? More like 6 times here One hood thing is my driveway and walkway are pretty much clear to the pavement now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 the 12th is closer to mid month than the 10th. either way, who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That’s a week from Thursday…Op run and all at 10 days out, but that’s not mid month. Trend that north 150-200 or so miles and we in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: the 12th is closer to mid month than the 10th. either way, who cares He’s just posting what the model showed…nothing else happening currently, so why not. We all know it’s an Op run at 10 days..and it’ll be gone next run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Comes right back. Means shit. At 10mb too. Congrats ISS. The polar vortex reconsolidates over the North Pole? Ah damn it, I thought we were having a polar vortex split just in time for a big finish. We need the pacific to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: 18z GFS was really close to getting NNE through the torch period with a net gain in snow. We got some bread and butter coming over the next 72 hours. Would be nice to avoid some rain late weekend or early week but I think it'll happen at some point. Hopefully it's a net gain though. Next 72 hours should feature some snow across the mountains/ski country though. Southwest flow then northwest flow. WAA then CAA....the tide comes in and then the tide comes out, hopefully plenty of seaweed gets caught on the peaks. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 12/1 off a low of 9F. I am done with this if it’s not snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 12/1 off a low of 9F. I am done with this if it’s not snowing. Yup...4.5F here I'm ready for "just cold enough to snow" weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Hit 5 for a low, at our shop Davis is @ 10. Funny, that snow pack here seems to be holding on great, like a January Winter.....still hoping for two more plowable events before April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Baaaaaahhhhhhhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 This looks like we sheep for awhile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 We morch on Monday? Looks like it’s possible. Kind of ready for it. Looks boring AF going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We morch on Monday? Looks like it’s possible. Kind of ready for it. Looks boring AF going forward. We over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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