March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A shit winter season all around…for most.  
 

And That 4/1 deal will not materialize in any positive way for SNE, you can bet on that. It’ll be a 35 degree rainy raw deal, you can feel it already setting up for that outcome. 

I know you’re bumming about this winter, but a 35 degree rain is easy to do this time of year vs a 32F snow.

It sucks, but I can’t be as upset about it vs this occurring in January or February.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Years ago, maybe 2013(?) Greenfield got over 2” sleet in a storm the first week of April. 

You ain’t getting that this year…it barely precipitates there in your snowhole anymore. Cold and dry here we come…until 4/1, then it’s 35 and rain here, 32.5 and rain there.  

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know you’re bumming about this winter, but a 35 degree rain is easy to do this time of year vs a 32F snow.

It sucks, but I can’t be as upset about it vs this occurring in January or February.

I have Good reason to be bumming. And yes you’re right about the 35 degree rain…I’m ready for it. So it’ll happen, I can feel it. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know you’re bumming about this winter, but a 35 degree rain is easy to do this time of year vs a 32F snow.

It sucks, but I can’t be as upset about it vs this occurring in January or February.

He's been trying the Kevin reverse psych angle for like a week-plus now. If he keeps saying it will never happen, maybe it will?

 

But yeah, even though this is a pretty good pattern coming up for a late season snow threat, you still need a lot to go right...esp down there. Not as hard for a place like ORH county or NW MA.

 

Most will at least see flakes this weekend though under that ULL for Saturday/Sunday.

[PhineasC]

Models are printing out a truckload of ZR and sleet here.

We'll see. I am always really skeptical of major ice events. They bust more than 2 foot snowstorms, IMO.

Rain at 31.5 will not be a major ice deal here even if the models are insisting it will be. Solar input is really strong right now.

Hopefully by some miracle it's more snow here than progged. Sleet is useless.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's been trying the Kevin reverse psych angle for like a week-plus now. If he keeps saying it will never happen, maybe it will?

 

But yeah, even though this is a pretty good pattern coming up for a late season snow threat, you still need a lot to go right...esp down there. Not as hard for a place like ORH county or NW MA.

 

Most will at least see flakes this weekend though under that ULL for Saturday/Sunday.

Ya need a lot to go right anywhere in SNE in April.  I don’t live in NYC or Newark for god sakes lol. It snows in interior CT In early April.
 

But this year is a weird year. It will find a way not to. And I’m seriously not pulling a Kevin a here…I’m honestly speaking my mind/gut in this.   I’ve been ready to put this season behind us for a while now. So I hope it just doesn’t do anything, and gets mild. 

[ORH_wxman]

If you're trying to get a good late season snow event, best window on the EPS is for 3/31ish......the synoptic pieces are all there (big Davis Strait block, 50/50 low, and trough moving into the OH Valley)

 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you're trying to get a good late season snow event, best window on the EPS is for 3/31ish......the synoptic pieces are all there (big Davis Strait block, 50/50 low, and trough moving into the OH Valley)

 

 

Yeah that’s the period. Hopefully temps cooperate.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s the period. Hopefully temps cooperate.

Wouldn't surprise me if we had a threat well into April too....like the first week-plus of the month looks ripe too. I'm bracing for mostly dogshit, but hopefully we can get the stars to line up on one of them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know you’re bumming about this winter, but a 35 degree rain is easy to do this time of year vs a 32F snow.

It sucks, but I can’t be as upset about it because I have had above average snowfall 8 of the past 10 seasons.

Good point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wouldn't surprise me if we had a threat well into April too....like the first week-plus of the month looks ripe too. I'm bracing for mostly dogshit, but hopefully we can get the stars to line up on one of them.

An April elevation event would not surprise me in the slightest...I still have an unviolated orifice that needs tending from ma nature.

[Ginx snewx]

My man! @Damage In Tolland

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My man! @Damage In Tolland

The wind direction probably netted perfectly for enhanced upslope from his roof. 

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

An April elevation event would not surprise me in the slightest...I still have an unviolated orifice that needs tending from ma nature.

Love that….we need one more porking. 

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you're trying to get a good late season snow event, best window on the EPS is for 3/31ish......the synoptic pieces are all there (big Davis Strait block, 50/50 low, and trough moving into the OH Valley)

 

 

That’s a nice look. Thanks for posting. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Not sure about the frustration at this point regarding having any more options of snow ( especially for SNE ). Is there a slight chance around the 3/31-4/3 time frame... Yeah. But I have moved past this back in early March. Just the way this year went. The good news is we have a new season next year ( and the year after that...ect ). We will see our snows and fulfill our wishes again. I dont care what any of you say.. We are all weather weenies ( otherwise we wouldnt be on here ).

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

25.9F. Very much ready to move on

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

That's about your average low for the date, maybe even 1-2° AN.  We've gotten used to milder mornings after a week of 10-15° AN minima.  Be glad it's not a 3/2014 repeat; on 24-25 that month I had lows of -15/-17.  Farmington co-op hit -12 on the 25th, tied with 3/24/1906 for coldest they've recorded after the equinox.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not prepared to aver we can't get so cold in the last week of March of any given year - CC hasn't evolved quite that far gone ..

However, in this particular series of runs, I'm thinking this modulates less egregious in time.   Model correction trends over recent months (which I'm not sure that isn't still quasi dependable...) has done that too often. 

There's two factors, that, and because models do this in the spring as a longer term aspect.  Those may be mutually exclusive reasons to doubt that excessive appeal verifies quite so harshly.   Yesterday was +5 at 980 mb, -4 at 900 mb and -5 at 800 mb at those levels over Logan at sun up...and we still managed low to mid 50s in a sparkling afternoon. We only missed "higher nape ranking" by factor of annoying wind.   That's the sun embarrassing a snow atmosphere's ability to compete. 

It's gonna be cold... annoying... yup.  But I suspect as we get near the models back off ...I dunno, some 20 or 30% of that annoyance.  The 00z runs seems to hint that already, with the -20 C's less inserting/residential once that happens. If it ended up more a typical late March pedestrian cold wave, wouldn't shock me. 

As an aside, for muse it seems like the models "forget" the season is changing at this time of year, while rushing matters in autumns - in fact, the GFS usually starts threatening lake graupel  air masses by an August 20th, 300 hour CAA - can't wait to end summer. I've actually seen the GFS try to start porking summer in by mid July.   I think they have problems budgeting radiate forcing. In the spring, it's like they start at a given initialization, and as each day goes by in that given model run, they cleanse away the heat, while not adding the daily forcing out in time.  In the early autumns they over assess the loss.  At this time of year, a D7 to 10 they are all the way back to January.  There's an air of sarcasm there; it's an exaggeration - but something like that.  

Different phenomenon entirely, to bowling season antics however...   

1997 was 64F on March 29th ... 48 hours later?  Historic blue bomb.  Although that was uniquely extreme.  It was +3 C and 850 mb - if memory is right - on that Saturday. NW dry down slope breeze, still enough to mix super adiabats and swell the BL to tall heights. Basically, perfect d-slope thermodynamics exaggerated the high temp.  In fact, I remember having left the Weather Lab's morning of remnant hang-over, coffee and nerd charting ... around 11:45 am.  En route to brunch at Fox Hall, ...walking across University Ave Bridge spanning over the Merrimack there ...the CU fractals seemed unusually high based.  Their meager vertical extensions leaning over into Kelvin- Hemholtz eddies.. I mused the abstract artistry - the natural hand painted schooners dappled across a vast bay in some kind of regatta, as they leaned over amid white caps.  The moment was nape on roids!  Tho was but 60, it may as well been 80 under the blaze of March 30 sun ... I've often enough nostalgia over the eruption in spring energy and vitality over the University life as it spilled out of doors across commons... 

Meanwhile, the hinted model runs of the aft week were as of that morning really designing that storm. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya need a lot to go right anywhere in SNE in April.  I don’t live in NYC or Newark for god sakes lol. It snows in interior CT In early April.
 

But this year is a weird year. It will find a way not to. And I’m seriously not pulling a Kevin a here…I’m honestly speaking my mind/gut in this.   I’ve been ready to put this season behind us for a while now. So I hope it just doesn’t do anything, and gets mild. 

Weird in many ways.  However, during the past 10 years SNE has done better in April, 120% of long-term April average, than my area (plus PWM) with 69% of the April L-T.  Still clearly recall the final kick in the gut of 2015-16 when SNE was getting 5-10" of April powder while we rotted in useless cloudy cold.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good point.

I don't control the weather. But the point about this time of year is valid.

[jbenedet]

Friday and Saturday look pretty damn decent. Friday especially- that has low 60's written all over it for the NH seacoast. 

Huge win before we see the worst weather next week.

Next week we winter in spring. Out with a bang.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

My man! @Damage In Tolland

That one was magical . Pure upslope magical. I bet that never happens again like that . 1 in a hundred year type thing 

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Friday and Saturday look pretty damn decent. Friday especially- that has low 60's written all over it for the NH seacoast. 

Huge win before we see the worst weather next week.

Next week we winter in spring. Out with a bang.

 

We definitely might sneak in a nape-tanner on Friday if we can clear out well.

Saturday is a little more iffy to me.....classic self-destructive sunshine day where it might start decent in the morning, but then by early afternoon, we're popping showers....some prob graupel or snow showers in high terrain. Maybe eastern areas near the coast might hold that off until later in the afternoon as the deep ULL affects the western zones sooner.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Friday and Saturday look pretty damn decent. Friday especially- that has low 60's written all over it for the NH seacoast. 

Huge win before we see the worst weather next week.

Next week we winter in spring. Out with a bang.

 

I see that more so on Friday...  I mentioned this myself yesterday or the day before.   

The day may dawn murky and drippy and nasty ...but then the sky gets bright at 9 am and by 10:30 ...11 o'clock, sky lights are expanding to vaster tracts of openness to sun dumping radiative forcing in... the temp probably jumps pretty good.   Mex is 57 ..58 along the KFIT-KASH-KBED arc ... which is still 3 days away as of 00z .. some modest climate weighting there. It may actually be dimming that some.  Plus the WNW flow may be too pessimistic in the sky coverage .. Basically, the correction vector for those temps circa 21Z Friday afternoon is pointed on the plus side of MOS. 

While we extol the losses of spring prospects in the various guidance 'general appeals,' meanwhile sneaky balm afternoons happen.   Saturday is tricky...Pretty potent S/W and strengthening CAA doesn't carry the same vibe for me

[brooklynwx99]

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough

obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if there's one pattern to get a late season event, this would be it: highly anomalous, decaying WB -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and a strong OH Valley trough

obviously, climo is unfavorable, but there's the potential for another winter storm if this pattern verifies. if we saw this even a couple of weeks ago we'd be talking KU

Let’s see if we can pull it off…Climo was unfavorable for the October bomb of 2011, but it happened.  So if it isn’t gonna be 65 and sunny, let’s try and get something exciting happening. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not prepared to aver we can't get so cold in the last week of March of any given year - CC hasn't evolved quite that far gone ..

However, in this particular series of runs, I'm thinking this modulates less egregious in time.   Model correction trends over recent months (which I'm not sure that isn't still quasi dependable...) has done that too often. 

There's two factors, that, and because models do this in the spring as a longer term aspect.  Those may be mutually exclusive reasons to doubt that excessive appeal verifies quite so harshly.   Yesterday was +5 at 980 mb, -4 at 900 mb and -5 at 800 mb at those levels over Logan at sun up...and we still managed low to mid 50s in a sparkling afternoon. We only missed "higher nape ranking" by factor of annoying wind.   That's the sun embarrassing a snow atmosphere's ability to compete. 

It's gonna be cold... annoying... yup.  But I suspect as we get near the models back off ...I dunno, some 20 or 30% of that annoyance.  The 00z runs seems to hint that already, with the -20 C's less inserting/residential once that happens. If it ended up more a typical late March pedestrian cold wave, wouldn't shock me. 

As an aside, for muse it seems like the models "forget" the season is changing at this time of year, while rushing matters in autumns - in fact, the GFS usually starts threatening lake graupel  air masses by an August 20th, 300 hour CAA - can't wait to end summer. I've actually seen the GFS try to start porking summer in by mid July.   I think they have problems budgeting radiate forcing. In the spring, it's like they start at a given initialization, and as each day goes by in that given model run, they cleanse away the heat, while not adding the daily forcing out in time.  In the early autumns they over assess the loss.  At this time of year, a D7 to 10 they are all the way back to January.  There's an air of sarcasm there; it's an exaggeration - but something like that.  

Different phenomenon entirely, to bowling season antics however...   

1997 was 64F on March 29th ... 48 hours later?  Historic blue bomb.  Although that was uniquely extreme.  It was +3 C and 850 mb - if memory is right - on that Saturday. NW dry down slope breeze, still enough to mix super adiabats and swell the BL to tall heights. Basically, perfect d-slope thermodynamics exaggerated the high temp.  In fact, I remember having left the Weather Lab's morning of remnant hang-over, coffee and nerd charting ... around 11:45 am.  En route to brunch at Fox Hall, ...walking across University Ave Bridge spanning over the Merrimack there ...the CU fractals seemed unusually high based.  Their meager vertical extensions leaning over into Kelvin- Hemholtz eddies.. I mused the abstract artistry - the natural hand painted schooners dappled across a vast bay in some kind of regatta, as they leaned over amid white caps.  The moment was nape on roids!  Tho was but 60, it may as well been 80 under the blaze of March 30 sun ... I've often enough nostalgia over the eruption in spring energy and vitality over the University life as it spilled out of doors across commons... 

Meanwhile, the hinted model runs of the aft week were as of that morning really designing that storm. 

Honestly, I'd rather have the -20C 850s if the alternative is "mundane" -15C 850 temps. Might as well try and go for a daily record if it's going to be cold....it's not like getting a high of 35F with wind is going to salvage this dogshit from being any less annoying....might as well be 25F and tag 2022 as the daily record for that date.

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Honestly, I'd rather have the -20C 850s if the alternative is "mundane" -15C 850 temps. Might as well try and go for a daily record if it's going to be cold....it's not like getting a high of 35F with wind is going to salvage this dogshit from being any less annoying....might as well be 25F and tag 2022 as the daily record for that date.

Why do you hate my fruit trees?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Why do you hate my fruit trees?

They were dumb enough to start getting buds early....they deserve my wrath of anger during useless late season cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think a lot of fruiting floras seem to stress out more in recent years, and do what Will just snarked ... try to flower at their earliest convenience and then get zapped by a late freezing snaps.

We have to consider the recent seasonal lag effects of blocking in springs...  That "might" just be an example of how climate is changing faster than adaptation rates.  It's a crisis, too, in some areas of the world, where the stress triggers both species migrations, and extinction.   It may not be so critical for our local orchard species, because they are surviving, but are they as "fruitful" ?   It used to be more dependably too cold prior to ~ Easter ..thus not triggering.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Look at that Euro D7.5 to 9 ...  sneaks a 70 F day in there out of nowhere ...

actually, this run ends any contention for winter after that...  It doesn't speak to "day 14" per se, but is definitely another seasonal flash that times for next Thursday.  

probably just transition season identity crisis.