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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw my neighbor planting a variety of plants veggies last week and asked him if it was too early to which he stated, “it’s 70 degrees, spring is here.” I’m not an expert on veggies by any means but I’m not planting a row of evergreens until late April, myself, just to be safe. 

 The only place anyone should be planting this early is in a hoop house.

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41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I saw my neighbor planting a variety of plants veggies last week and asked him if it was too early to which he stated, “it’s 70 degrees, spring is here.” I’m not an expert on veggies by any means but I’m not planting a row of evergreens until late April, myself, just to be safe. 

His veggies are done…what a silly neighbor.   Mid March and he’s planting stuff that can be killed by frost.  Does he realize he lives in SNE, and not Georgia?  

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I would wager this airmass has some legit legs. I know sometimes we get this late into the season and we'll see models very aggressive with such airmasses only to modify as we get closer, however, this one looks to come straight from the polar region. Not like these other airmasses (more Arctic) which come at us from central Canada and then traverse the upper-Midwest and sort of lose steam.

184467_trj001.gif

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3 hours ago, BrianW said:

Danbury +8.0

New Haven +5.6

Groton +4.3

Bridgeport +3.6

Have they recently changed the setup at DXR? Not doubting that it's been way above normal, but I've noticed that DXR temps have been consistently higher this winter than previously when compared to surrounding temperatures (including my own).

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8 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Have they recently changed the setup at DXR? Not doubting that it's been way above normal, but I've noticed that DXR temps have been consistently higher this winter than previously when compared to surrounding temperatures (including my own).

Looks like a big shift in temps at DXR beginning last Mar/Apr. 

image.png

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13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not many people live up there, hence the lack of interest.

Good luck.

I count exactly one from New England at present, the fellow from Monson (Maine) who occasionally chips in on snowmobile discussions.

Northern NNE may bag a foot of paste between now and Monday, but I anticipate mostly cold rain with catpaws for here.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Models are painting an extended period of sleet and ZR here. My limited history in this spot is that this will be snow or rain. We don’t seem to get a lot of sleet and ZR here. If winds are W/NW it might be wet snow. 

The CAD is pretty deep....so you may get some sleet....the sfc winds are not strong and out of the E or NE. It will be interesting to see your obs.

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Depending on how deep the temperature anomaly is I would be worried about fruit trees in SNE.   I don’t remember what year it was (2018?) but we hit single digit lows in late March and the peach, plumb and cherry trees did not produce that summer. 

Here it was 2010.  Jan 1 thru May 5 averaged +6.2, capped by those first 5 May days with highs averaging 78°.  Leaf out was at least 3 weeks ahead of usual, then May 11-13 had lows of 22/26/25.  I'd not planted anything yet, so the garden was safe, but new growth on ash, oak, apple and some maples was fried - trees had to set new buds and start over.  It was the 2nd year in 3 that we had about zero from our 3 apple trees.  (In 2008 a cedar harvest across the road had attracted dozens of deer. When that cafeteria closed in late Feb, all the critters came to my place and with 40"+ of solid pack to elevate them, they trimmed essentially every bud.)

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29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I will be Ray for just a moment and Pat myself on the back .. I nailed the Morch forecast of warm and little snow . That signal was strong last fall 

The next 9 days are hopefully warm but they appear AOB.  Too early to spike.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw the gfs and want to puke. Meteorological stomach bug. Wheel of Rhea. Better get snow out of that lol.

Maybe at least some high wind gusts to take out a few deck chairs or maybe blow over a grill or 2?

Anything, and I mean anything remotely exciting to take the pain off of April. 

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw the gfs and want to puke. Meteorological stomach bug. Wheel of Rhea. Better get snow out of that lol.

That's been signaled for a a few cycles now...as soon as I saw that westward NAO block slowly decaying on ensemble guidance, i was thinking "here comes the wheel o 'rhea".....hopefully there's enough cold to make it snow instead of 37F rain and drizzle like would happen 2+ week later in the spring.

April '96 had a similar look with that ULL spinning in place that managed to produce 2 storms out of the same trough....so you never know.

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