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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:lol:  O        K

out of no where … 

1 pandemic

2 nearly avoiding a nuke exchange 

3 then a biblical cap failure sends a 20 foot sea level rise all over the world only that tsunamis doesn’t wash back

… bring in the locusts I guess

Meh' just part of the pole shift catastrophe cycle, consider yourself fortunate if you are actually able to witness it.  :o:lol:;)

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

That’s just not right. The first day of spring.

Haven’t had -NAO all frickin’ winter. Now it shows up. Again. This persistence has really sucked. It’s too damn expensive to live up here with climate this bad. 

Signs outside do make one want to say winter’s over. But it’s a damn trap. The teleconnections and major guidance are painting an ugly picture. Just like this time last year and each year before that…

23C900C8-0A77-4502-891F-101ACA6AFE8F.png

IMHO the NAO might be partial but the mor important change is the PNA bouncing around positive every three to five days aft of the recent -EPO that’s long gone, but residually, having loaded cold in Canada, this could lead to trouble  

That could mean bowling trouble … pretty much hitting climo too. 

18z almost parroted the 12z Euro in the fantasy range … Not a testament to possibility … yet,  but a testament to the vulnerability in the physics right now for these possible deep pinch lows

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8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

IMHO the NAO might be partial but the mor important change is the PNA bouncing around positive every three to five days aft of the recent -EPO that’s long gone, but residually, having loaded cold in Canada, this could lead to trouble  

That could mean bowling trouble … pretty much hitting climo too. 

18z almost parroted the 12z Euro in the fantasy range … Not a testament to possibility … yet,  but a testament to the vulnerability in the physics right now for these possible deep pinch lows

We really don’t have to wait long at all. We can table the theory. The first bowling ball starts rolling in 48hrs; at hr120 is trending towards validating the worst this time of year has to offer in the northern mid Atlantic and SNE. Whatever NNE ski country that hasn’t tossed in the towel should be happy. 
 

 

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can fart 60° with west flow and 850s near 0C. Yeah, maybe over a week before the chance again, but 50° and sun isn’t horrible. Thursday looks wretched though.

I agree on the temps IF we get the sun. Problem is this pattern looks very active too.


I’ve been out with the bike and longboard plenty times in sub freezing temps this year so yea, I’ll take 50 and dry any time in early spring. Just no more snow please, unless it’s a doozie.
 

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It looks to me like we have an emerging signal from the mid Atlantic to coastal New England, ~ D7.5 thru 9.5, but of what?  

There is likely to be L/W amplitude positioning thru the eastern continent during the time frame; that much is actually above confidence for me. But there is all kind of destructive interference ...that really begins much sooner in the individuals operational versions, and blends of all.

The trouble is, the models are bunching a lot of noise on the front side of that more important period of time.  The D4.5 - 6.5 period features a sort of typical spring climate, half commitment bag of trough that in itself is tussling with internal mechanics. That whole mess then advects stage right, cleansing away the thermodynamics  Better player mechanics then arrive into a dearth of baroclinic instability ... ends up less.

Not for not, ~ 1/3 of the GEF individual ( 00z ) members, manage to engineer at least a middling low that strafes the MA to NE region thru the above time range - slow mover.  Spring blue judging by the marginal appeal/540 < hydrostatic height coverage while that is happening.   The others don't do this/ keep destructively interfering.   

 

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It looks to me like we have an emerging signal from the mid Atlantic to coastal New England, ~ D7.5 thru 9.5, but of what?  

There is likely to be L/W amplitude positioning thru the eastern continent during the time frame; that much is actually above confidence for me. But there is all kind of destructive interference ...that really begins much sooner in the individuals operational versions, and blends of all.

The trouble is, the models are bunching a lot of noise on the front side of that more important period of time.  The D4.5 - 6.5 period features a sort of typical spring climate, half commitment bag of trough that in itself is tussling with internal mechanics. That whole mess then advects stage right, cleansing away the thermodynamics  Better player mechanics then arrive into a dearth of baroclinic instability ... ends up less.

Not for not, ~ 1/3 of the GEF individual ( 00z ) members, manage to engineer at least a middling low that strafes the MA to NE region thru the above time range - slow mover.  Spring blue judging by the marginal appeal/540 < hydrostatic height coverage while that is happening.   The others don't do this/ keep destructively interfering.   

 

As Scott would say…It’s over. 

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