Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d watch the weekend. Looks wintry to start at least. Sure we can watch it snow up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 10 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Who are the big boys? So we are not included in that? We’re temper tantrum toddlers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 16 hours ago, Cold Miser said: What was significant about April 96? I was not living in New England then. You missed Kevin Mitchell attempting to play RF.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sure we can watch it snow up north Sleet for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pissah evolution for the mid range club. But he’s still smiling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But he’s still smiling? That look next week reminds me of December a bit on the EPS...not as bad, though with more ridging by AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That look next week reminds me of December a bit on the EPS...not as bad, though with more ridging by AK. That could be all we need to have that pay off a lil more than it did in December though…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’d watch the weekend. Looks wintry to start at least. Looks like something that could get under NNE at least. CMC shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Looks like something that could get under NNE at least. CMC shows that. Latitude overall will matter in this pattern I think, but perhaps not in all cases. Even seems wintry here to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 March has 1 more trick up its sleeve. I can just feel it. I'm thinking mid month. Other than that.... Nada for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: March has 1 more trick up its sleeve. I can just feel it. I'm thinking mid month. Other than that.... Nada for now Things can pop at short lead…and/or change with short notice. Let’s hope we’re on the righ side of the gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The MJO completely dissipated despite the GEF/GFS' momentum for days, projecting through the phase 3-6 side of the RMM. It should be noted, the Euro cluster was not ever as robust with that signal - the PDF publications by CPC did not delineate between the Euro vs GFS in their write up last week - since they were discussing the correlative nature of the 3-6 as being La Nina constructively interfering, we can infer from that they were more intrigued by the GFS. oops - MJO is a pattern enhancer. Not a pattern inducer. When it is in a phase that is constructively(destructively) interfering, it augments(attenuates), but does not make the patterns happen. I feel like this concept doesn't get factored in enough but whatever. Anyway, the publication was citing that the MJO being in constructive interference, the La Nina circulation mode would become more coherent over the next two weeks. As of last night, there is no MJO. If that was their plan, ...what now? The La Nina prior to this ... was more uncoupled from the circulation mode ( last 6 weeks of the intra cold season )... What is interesting ... the MJO collapses in the guidance and almost immediately the Euro operational pops the -EPO signature in lock step - not sure that's a coincidence. Meanwhile, the numerical telecons at CPC are all warm and have gotten warmer over night. So directly competing indicators. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Latitude overall will matter in this pattern I think, but perhaps not in all cases. Even seems wintry here to start. You were talking about over running the other day ... as the favored event type. Well, the weekend is that incarnate. AT least in that early aspect. I commented on that late yesterday, too - We are still in W-E correction tendency, squishing the N-S. The GFS, being that it tends to a slight speed bias anyway, would be the first to see these types of risks. Sometimes its right though - particularly during/because the flow is in fact still fast. Whenever we have < 520 no-hydrostatic heights in mid Canada, and 590 heights over the GOM, the total integral is going to send commercial flights to London at near record pace. ...along with everything else that is the flow, including storms entering that maelstrom. This time the GFS may be more right because the Euro nods. We had one of these a couple weeks ago. We had a light snow and sleet and ice for 12 hours, and then the next night ... it launched to 60+ F with air the smelled of summer. Welcome to CC ... but maybe the whole thing succumbs and ends up south... At some point, one who is is spring/warm enthusiast might get frustrated and snarky with a -PNA/+NAO/+AO spread and nothing to show for it. It's kind of comical. Every angle is a competing indicator - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Latitude overall will matter in this pattern I think, but perhaps not in all cases. Even seems wintry here to start. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Well, people here do laugh but it doesn't seem to stop them from going insane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Trough out west gets super deep....so the 3/5-3/8 period looks mostly like trash....maybe some brief 'bouts of winter wx on the front end, but I think mid-month (beyond 3/10) is a lot more likely for the next real winter threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Rainy mild weekend in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rainy mild weekend in SNE Unless we get CAD'd at the surface which is very possible. Then it's complete trash with maybe a little icing and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rainy mild weekend in SNE Saturday looks pretty cold. Sunday looks like rain holds off until afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unless we get CAD'd at the surface which is very possible. Then it's complete trash with maybe a little icing and cold rain. Scoots seemed all about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unless we get CAD'd at the surface which is very possible. Then it's complete trash with maybe a little icing and cold rain. I already know I will CAD for hours here, with cold rain and then end up with an ice glacier yard yet again. I am so done with the ice patches this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I already know I will CAD for hours here, with cold rain and then end up with an ice glacier yard yet again. I am so done with the ice patches this year. seriously dude, three times this season I had driveway glacier issues, I remember this happened I want to say 00-01? where it was just constantly chopping ice in driveway and walks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Mid March still looks good for a storm 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scoots seemed all about it Looks warmer at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mid March still looks good for a storm That’s a two weeks out…could be in the70’s by then lol. But ya, that may be the last shot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Trough out west gets super deep....so the 3/5-3/8 period looks mostly like trash....maybe some brief 'bouts of winter wx on the front end, but I think mid-month (beyond 3/10) is a lot more likely for the next real winter threat. Yea, I commented earlier that it reminded me a bit of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mid March still looks good for a storm Yep. Still have a month left of threats, possibly a bit longer if the pattern looks great in early April. It’s going to get mild but the mild stretch looks to be short lived, with the rapid weakening of polar vortex and MJO wave dying off in the COD. Way to early to give up on winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Possible PV split, there is some lag so we won’t feel the effects until mid to late March and early April. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, George001 said: Possible PV split, there is some lag so we won’t feel the effects until mid to late March and early April. Probably won’t mean anything at all 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 24 today with light wind feels like 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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