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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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The MJO completely dissipated despite the GEF/GFS' momentum for days, projecting through the phase 3-6 side of the RMM.

It should be noted, the Euro cluster was not ever as robust with that signal - the PDF publications by CPC did not delineate between the Euro vs GFS in their write up last week - since they were discussing the correlative nature of the 3-6 as being La Nina constructively interfering, we can infer from that they were more intrigued by the GFS.

oops -

MJO is a pattern enhancer.  Not a pattern inducer.    When it is in a phase that is constructively(destructively) interfering, it augments(attenuates), but does not make the patterns happen.  I feel like this concept doesn't get factored in enough but whatever.

Anyway, the publication was citing that the MJO being in constructive interference, the La Nina circulation mode would become more coherent over the next two weeks.  As of last night, there is no MJO.

If that was their plan, ...what now? 
The La Nina prior to this ... was more uncoupled from the circulation mode ( last 6 weeks of the intra cold season )...

What is interesting ... the MJO collapses in the guidance and almost immediately the Euro operational pops the -EPO signature in lock step - not sure that's a coincidence.  

Meanwhile, the numerical telecons at CPC are all warm and have gotten warmer over night.   So directly competing indicators. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Latitude overall will matter in this pattern I think, but perhaps not in all cases. Even seems wintry here to start. 

You were talking about over running the other day ... as the favored event type.  Well, the weekend is that incarnate. AT least in that early aspect.

I commented on that late yesterday, too -

We are still in W-E correction tendency, squishing the N-S.

The GFS, being that it tends to a slight speed bias anyway, would be the first to see these types of risks.

Sometimes its right though - particularly during/because the flow is in fact still fast.   Whenever we have < 520 no-hydrostatic heights in mid Canada, and 590 heights over the GOM, the total integral is going to send commercial flights to London at near record pace. ...along with everything else that is the flow, including storms entering that maelstrom.

This time the GFS may be more right because the Euro nods.    We had one of these a couple weeks ago.  We had a light snow and sleet and ice for 12 hours, and then the next night ... it launched to 60+ F with air the smelled of summer.   Welcome to CC ... but maybe the whole thing succumbs and ends up south...

At some point, one who is is spring/warm enthusiast might get frustrated and snarky with a -PNA/+NAO/+AO spread and nothing to show for it.  It's kind of comical.  Every angle is a competing indicator -

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15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I already know I will CAD for hours here, with cold rain and then end up with an ice glacier yard yet again.   I am so done with the ice patches this year.

seriously dude, three times this season I had driveway glacier issues, I remember this happened I want to say 00-01? where it was just constantly chopping ice in driveway and walks

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trough out west gets super deep....so the 3/5-3/8 period looks mostly like trash....maybe some brief 'bouts of winter wx on the front end, but I think mid-month (beyond 3/10) is a lot more likely for the next real winter threat.

Yea, I commented earlier that it reminded me a bit of December.

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15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid March still looks good for a storm

Yep. Still have a month left of threats, possibly a bit longer if the pattern looks great in early April. It’s going to get mild but the mild stretch looks to be short lived, with the rapid weakening of polar vortex and MJO wave dying off in the COD. Way to early to give up on winter.

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