ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been moving NE all day . You can see it on vis. How fast is it moving? Like 1mph? It was almost to the pike around noontime…and at 6pm, BAF-ORH-BOS all socked in with northerly wind flags. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Elevated CAPE increasing. MUCAPE. That’s our focus…we were never getting any sfc based instability here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: How fast is it moving? Like 1mph? It was almost to the pike around noontime…and at 6pm, BAF-ORH-BOS all socked in with northerly wind flags. Here's what's going to happen... The broken line of convection will orient into a linear feature and propagate into western zones later this evening, pushing an outflow out ahead ...and that will scour out this shit ...or perhaps even ride over the top... but it will at least assist in doing so... Then, as the main cold front comes in the aft, it the brief gradient packing ahead will do the rest and there will be a mix-down T spike like 5 minutes before the front goes through neighborhoods ... .... at which time Kevin will either be already asleep, or ... posting how the models were right about the warm front busting in to NE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Now this is a bowling ball ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will fights me on this most times.. but this year he can’t. This is going down as warmest Morch since 2012. With at or above normal signaled right thru month end. I love the early green up. All lawns are just Instant spring this year. Especially if you take care of them and fertilize. The reason you get a lot of resistance is for posts like these. Do you look at any data or just decide to post and hope it’s not spectacularly inaccurate? 1. There’s a decent chance that this March is actually colder than 2020 and 2021. Throw in 2016 too if you want yet another year that this one won’t beat post-2012. 2. All guidance is signaling a return to colder weather the final week of the month. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter is over for NYC. See you in 9 months lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Now this is a bowling ball ! You know what that is... ...that is merely missing a S. stream zygote disturbance to fertilize, because if it had that... it would be historically competing with 1888 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The reason you get a lot of resistance is for posts like these. Do you look at any data or just decide to post and hope it’s not spectacularly inaccurate? 1. There’s a decent chance that this March is actually colder than 2020 and 2021. Throw in 2016 too if you want yet another year that this one won’t beat post-2012. 2. All guidance is signaling a return to colder weather the final week of the month. Dude you must have been so .. high. This Tool song .. which by the way is one of the top 5 best rock songs ever .. is for you. Have you looked at the month? Look at the numbers MTD and then look at the landscape.It tells the tale . Ensembles show a normal to slightly AN pattern thru end of month . Mild days and cool nights. I truly do not get what you’re looking at . Blues in late Morch don’t mean cold . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 6:33 PM, donsutherland1 said: With abundant sunshine, the temperature soared to near record and record levels in parts of the region. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy but still mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Showers and possible thundershowers are possible as a cold front moves across the region. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March remains underway. As a consequence, this month could rank among the 15 warmest March cases on record in much of the region. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° The longer-range guidance has turned cooler for the close of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.429 today. On March 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.013 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Lots of Breweries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Lots of Breweries. IPA bottles everywhere all over the coach and floor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 He is all cans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of Breweries. Can you believe he legit thinks it’s a cold pattern rest of month? I mean WTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 That warmth in Antarctica is out of this world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Even thru next weekend .. everyone sees normal to above . How does the month finish BN seeing we are all above now?Open to ideas here Friday and Saturday Dry and seasonable conditions forecast to start next weekend. Eyeing a coastal-low pressure system that may bring precipitation to southern New England late next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even thru next weekend .. everyone sees normal to above . How does the month finish BN seeing we are all above now?Open to ideas here You must be pounding beers to read Will’s post and think those written words mean that he thinks this month ends up below normal. Just nude on the couch spraying cheese wiz into your mouth like it’s 3am at a frat house. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You must be pounding beers to read Will’s post and think those written words mean that he thinks this month ends up below normal. Just nude on the couch spraying cheese wiz into your mouth like it’s 3am at a frat house. Or 8:10 pm at my house 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Tree house was buzzin today day 8-9 looked kinda interesting on GFS but obviously a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You must be pounding beers to read Will’s post and think those written words mean that he thinks this month ends up below normal. Just nude on the couch spraying cheese wiz into your mouth like it’s 3am at a frat house. Pull the ski pole out of your ass for a moment. Look up and post the numbers for SNE MTD temps 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: That’s just not right. The first day of spring. Haven’t had -NAO all frickin’ winter. Now it shows up. Again. This persistence has really sucked. It’s too damn expensive to live up here with climate this bad. Signs outside do make one want to say winter’s over. But it’s a damn trap. The teleconnections and major guidance are painting an ugly picture. Just like this time last year and each year before that… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s just not right. The first day of spring. Haven’t had -NAO all frickin’ winter. Now it shows up. Again. This persistence has really sucked. It’s too damn expensive to live up here with climate this bad. Signs outside do make one want to say winter’s over. But it’s a damn trap. The teleconnections and major guidance are painting an ugly picture. Just like this time last year and each year before that… Not the most convincing blocking signal. EPS goes warm quickly by 1st week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That’s just not right. The first day of spring. Haven’t had -NAO all frickin’ winter. Now it shows up. Again. This persistence has really sucked. It’s too damn expensive to live up here with climate this bad. Signs outside do make one want to say winter’s over. But it’s a damn trap. The teleconnections and major guidance are painting an ugly picture. Just like this time last year and each year before that… Nao always goes negative by spring time. Back door cold front season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pull the ski pole out of your ass for a moment. Look up and post the numbers for SNE MTD temps So to summarize the last hour... "Will can't argue with me on this one. It's iron clad. This Morch will be the hottest since 2012". "There’s a decent chance that this March is actually colder than 2020 and 2021. Throw in 2016 too if you want yet another year that this one won’t beat post-2012." "Will thinks this month will finish below normal, ha. How can someone think that with the current positive departures! My lawn whispers to me." "Will didn't say anything about the month finishing below normal." "Pull ski pole from ass. Show us the month-to-date departures this year because I didn't look them up, nor did I compare them to 2012." 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: So to summarize the last hour... "Will can't argue with me on this one. It's iron clad. This Morch will be the hottest since 2012". "There’s a decent chance that this March is actually colder than 2020 and 2021. Throw in 2016 too if you want yet another year that this one won’t beat post-2012." "Will thinks this month will finish below normal, ha. How can someone think that with the current positive departures! My lawn whispers to me." "Will didn't say that." "Pull ski pole from ass. Show us the month-to-date departures this year because I didn't look them up before making statements." As a well known philosopher once said, “Beer.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 Nice thunderstorm just went through Westfield. More impressive than I thought it would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know what that is... ...that is merely missing a S. stream zygote disturbance to fertilize, because if it had that... it would be historically competing with 1888 Nothing gets my attention more than mentioning 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know what that is... ...that is merely missing a S. stream zygote disturbance to fertilize, because if it had that... it would be historically competing with 1888 BUT…there is no S stream, and there won’t be…so it’s just a nothing burger. But I will say that you’re analysis is interesting nonetheless. Too dam bad it’s nothing as is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pull the ski pole out of your ass for a moment. Look up and post the numbers for SNE MTD temps You need a gummy… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: That warmth in Antarctica is out of this world. O K out of no where … 1 pandemic 2 nearly avoiding a nuke exchange 3 then a biblical cap failure sends a 20 foot sea level rise all over the world only that tsunamis doesn’t wash back … bring in the locusts I guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: That warmth in Antarctica is out of this world. Ya…but not one person lives there, so I hope the Penguins are catching some sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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