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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You know they’ll end up becoming less amped and flatten enough to give us cold sleet/rain storms. 

Sfc usually CADs, so yeah…they’d be 37 degree rainstorms with maybe a spike to 50 for a few hours before the front passes. Rinse repeat. That’s why I’ll root for snow well into March unless it’s the rare pattern that can support a 2010 or 2012 where we get lots of 60s and 70s. I have no use for 38 and rain or 48 and sunny. Delay the spring misery as long as possible. 

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The -PNA is coherently moving from the CPC telecon numerical concept, into the operational models ...

Simultaneously, the GFS is doing what it typically does in early to mid spring... running out and finding any physical means its AI can imagine to ablate the implications of a warm up in a week... ( think this is a funny chain jerking aspect NCEP does to weiner nation)

The Euro ...sort of is more, but honestly neither are as warm as these conceptually would support happening:

image.png.e138d316ec1a243e527555d60c0b6c21.png

I am a little leery of doubting the mid range ( next weekend ) can't surge more - the "local climate range" hasn't shown any problems doing that ( 10 years..).  And this spread above would allow the ambient polar jet to climb above the Chicago -Boston latitude.   It doesn't have to.  These signals come and go and often enough only partially "fill in" so to speak.  So we'll see.  

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please , please no. It has all the looks of Rainers , doors and hell on Earth with no snow 

Yup. You’ll catch some events there though, kitchen sink type stuff, but all it does is delay the inevitable while causing most of us to drink or chew ourselves into a coma before we leaf out.

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I had a feeling the GFS might do that next weekend. 

We’re still in the stretch pattern … tending to squish the N-S  in lieu of spaghettification in the W-E

until the flow slows down …or the seasonal change gets under way, initial late mid range lakes cutters will tend to smear east and (probably) end up colder risks for our latitude. 

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