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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I smell a late season deal. I don’t know.....just my feel, along with some model help. 

You could have made this a real cool rhyme, with one last line. (ahh that rhymes too lol).
 

Let me show you.

 

I smell a late season deal. I don’t know..just my feel, along with some model help, that just might be real.    :D

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has a winter pattern

It does but it also stresses believability  too far when there are too few tools and metrics supporting those extreme cold intrusions at such continental scales for one. But at a canvased consideration … this isn’t exactly the Maunder Minimum world we’ve inherited here.   498 hydrostatic heights spanning the vastness of the NP and 504s to BUF should roll eyes first when considering after the Equinox  … nothing else.  not happenen James 

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Looking at 66°F today. Thousands upon thousands of canada and snow geese flooding north throughout the day. Should be down to just dirty snow piles after today. We’ve had full snow cover (of varying depths) since December 19th. That’s one of the things I e liked about moving up here. Last winter snow cover pic, from a moment ago:
0AE725F6-B787-40A4-AE3B-FE657C2DDB73.thumb.jpeg.70866960b8556ebafb3c2c8cb87d553e.jpeg

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Still gotta watch late next week/next weekend....guidance all over the place on that car crash in the north atlantic giving us a 50/50 low and a big trough ejecting from the central CONUS. Could get interesting....it could easily fail too, but worth keeping an eye on for now.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

AWT

You and me both warned of this day ...  I specifically posted, I'm not too keen on ( at the time... ) Thursday and Friday - as the vagaries of model and wind would have it, we'll salvage tomorrow+  ... most likely.  But today?     Some models at the time were suppressing this rhea wheel beneath a narrow ridge but that didn't fit the telecon for a neutral PNA positive NAO tapestry.   Usually the EOFs win one way or the other.

The question is how much of it -

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still gotta watch late next week/next weekend....guidance all over the place on that car crash in the north atlantic giving us a 50/50 low and a big trough ejecting from the central CONUS. Could get interesting....it could easily fail too, but worth keeping an eye on for now.

It’s certainly worth taking a peak every couple days as you said, but it will ultimately fail.  I know, persistent works only until it doesn’t, but I don’t think this winter/season can pull that off.  It’s a rat at its core. 

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