MJO812 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GEFS is very snowy post 3/8 FWIW like a 6-8” mean for you guys for that 7 day stretch It's not really that snowy and it's concentrated in interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty cold going into mid-March but the period from like 3/5-3/8 or so looks torchy. Seriously ...I'm not trying to be anti-wintry here. You gotta know... since warmth is a fleeting commodity at this time of year, I'd be happy with blue bombs. 'Sides, my internal monologue often muses, 'it can rage in blizzards all it wants, ...July is still coming ' I'm not sure the EPS signal won't come into nearer terms less magnified. In other words, it may be over-amp relative to what actually transpires. I could see the CFS shit working out if the EPS modes arrive weaker, and the R/wave distribution down stream cools 100W ... we start SW releasing early with next weeks 'dirty' warm sector becoming repetitive tendencies at mid month. Between March ~ 10 and May 1st, I don't trust the operational GFS as a personal doctrine, for any late mid to extended range. Since they started ensemble-line churning out new FV's every 9 months starting 7 years ago ...that model's had a propensity in springs of always attempting to take the nearer term diabatic flux of solar/seasonal increases, and absorb it such that it's physics wends its way back to January 20th seemingly no matter what. It'll have no compunctions in wheeling up a 524 dm SPV over JB on May 15th when looking at May 2nt runs. A little snark there...but it really is the last of the guidance's to concede to warm heights in the mid latitudes. Sometimes its right ... but it's always the cooler member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Damn i was hoping for March snow. The ensembles looked good to me around the 14th but I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not really that snowy and it's concentrated in interior SNE That’s as snowy as it gets for a mean day 8-15, not for us though climo doesn’t favor us in march. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That’s as snowy as it gets for a mean day 8-15, not for us though climo doesn’t favor us in march. Hoping for an El Nino next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hoping for an El Nino next winter Meh.. La this El that...who cares. Just gimme some damn snow. This sucks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Interior definitely has snow chances in this pattern. Let’s see how much model variability there is over the next day or two and then we’ll have a better idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Damn. I am desperately trying to avoid my 7th below average snowfall year this century, but 11 inches to go and a so so pattern late winter early spring may not get it done. what type of efforts are you making to avoid the below average snowfall? prayer? re-location? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s an overrunning look. I was just referring to this week. I've heard that so many times this season. Overrunning is really just code for a coldish pattern with no blocking. They are often not very prolific. We've played that Wilton Felton elevator music, or whatever the hell his name is, like 10 times this season, but most locales have half of the snow. Here is a tall task....point to the discrete and viable winter storm threat on the maps....exactly. Wish we could end it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 GFS trying to make 3/5-6 interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've heard that so many times this season. Overrunning is really just code for a coldish pattern with no blocking. They are often not very prolific. We've played that Wilton Felton elevator music, or whatever the hell his name is, like 10 times this season, but most locales have half of the snow. Here is a tall task....point to the discrete and viable winter storm threat on the maps....exactly. Wish we could end it. Yeah wasn’t trying to imply a prolific look, just something that may offer some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 The long range looks nothing like ending it, so we may as well try to take our chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The long range looks nothing like ending it, so we may as well try to take our chances. Yep. Might as well get some threats in that pattern rather than talk about how nice the 47F faux warmth feels with -5C 850 temps….or actually freezing our balls off when the occasional -20c shot gets us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS trying to make 3/5-6 interesting Let’s lock it in now. Verbatim gives NE MASS a few inches while SWCT gets well into the 60s! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GEFS is very snowy post 3/8 FWIW like a 5-8” mean for you guys pike north for that 7 day stretch . This is just post 3/8 Hour 384 clown map...cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 12Z gfs is a parade of mostly inside runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 I will take 47° and sunny in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 52 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Hour 384 clown map...cool. so, even the clown maps show less than 6" until the ides, I'll pass and just take warmth if that's the case, season is getting long in the tooth for sustained cold, though it has happened, but prognosis don't look good, meh I'm not even half to climo, so at this point want to get on with spring activities if it ain't gonna march 56 us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah wasn’t trying to imply a prolific look, just something that may offer some chances. My worst fear...a cold pattern full of "chances".....god, gag me. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hoping for an El Nino next winter Hopefully a weak one. Moderate and stronger not good for my area (though in NYC they can be better). Weak west based ninos are where we get most of our truly epic winters. 77-78, 2014-2015, 2004-2005 all had weak west based ninos. It’s been a while since we had an epic region wide winter with well above normal snow in all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring. Early March is cooked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Early March is cooked Congrats Montreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 It’s pretty volatile so I think it’s tough to gauge one way or another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Torch ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 Great....plenty of cold, plenty of chances, but baseball or snow....not so much. I hate this season with a passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2022 Author Share Posted February 27, 2022 37 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 12Z gfs is a parade of mostly inside runners. At least that would need to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least that would need to be warm. You know they’ll end up becoming less amped and flatten enough to give us cold sleet/rain storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great....plenty of cold, plenty of chances, but baseball or snow....not so much. I hate this season with a passion. Purgatory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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