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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s here. 

Agreed ...

For the general reader:   Recent guidance has been consistent with this being "possibly" the last "pattern cold" - which is weird sounding... But what I mean is, the tundra delivery circuitry gets cut off.   Yesterday's system if symbolically, it is as though it packed up winter, hugged good-bye today, and we watch it drive away.   

What we are left with in the wake is more seasonal anomalies.  

I'm a little leery of great expectations for this week's sensible weather, though.  Particularly Thurs into Friday.  There's a cold and unwhite middling/weak mid Atlantic low that appears to have no other functional purpose for existing other than solely to f-up the outlook during that time. I'm not sure it's fake. 

It would atone to a 30 F afternoon temperature correction from the Del Marva to eastern NE. If it suppresses south, no problem - we'll be under equinox sun. And with no other appreciable gradient/wind, 925 to 850 mb well above 0 C, we'd be really soaking in "nape balm" But turn the flow around to anything sniffing E component and forget it.  You're completely f'ed. 

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Ah yes...  That's really spring in New England, what it is all about.   It's about tip-toeing through a landmine field of reasons to offset the inevitability of the ensuing "warm" season.    

These recent/overnight charts continue to look that way.   To which the proverbial 'bowling season' is a part.. so, perhaps some entertainment too. But those are actually rare. We're far more likely to step on mines ... in the form of BDs, or like that wave moving off the MA...etc.   In between, we get a warm car seats, and protected deck nape out of the wind if the sun's shining. 

That's how I always remember springs around this region of the country.   Presently in the guidance it would seem we're heading into period that fits more with that lore.  I think the propensity of snow ( or atmosphere's supporting that ) in May has been extraordinary, because it is has happened with different leading indicators.  And counter-intuitive as it may seem, the 80s we saw in Febs and Mar might be related to the same disruptive forcing.  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Keep telling yourself that….maybe this time you’ll be right? I hope it is.  But there will be plenty of misery mist and overcast damp and raw weather to come. That’s the shittyvoart. 

He means winter is over. We’re ripe for dogshit easterly flow misery list until mid June some years. 
 

I don’t see any frigid winter wx conditions for the remainder of this season though. We lose the cold source in Canada after the next few days. We could still get snow though as bowling ball season happens during the final week of March into early April. The ensmebles are trying to show a potentially favorable period late month….but we know the caveats that come with ensembles. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

He means winter is over. We’re ripe for dogshit easterly flow misery list until mid June some years. 
 

I don’t see any frigid winter wx conditions for the remainder of this season though. We lose the cold source in Canada after the next few days. We could still get snow though as bowling ball season happens during the final week of March into early April. The ensmebles are trying to show a potentially favorable period late month….but we know the caveats that come with ensembles. 

Yes, I completely realize what he means. And my point was exactly what you just said…there could be another shot at some snow/wintry weather?
 

So imo, then it’s truly not over if that happens.  So by folks saying it’s over, that really isn’t all that accurate, if it actually snows again and accumulates.  
 

Im ready for spring…hope we get more spring like weather now than dogshit, so I hope he’s correct. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, I completely realize what he means. And my point was exactly what you just said…there could be another shot at some snow/wintry weather?
 

So imo, then it’s truly not over if that happens.  So by folks saying it’s over, that really isn’t all that accurate, if it actually snows again and accumulates.  
 

Im ready for spring…hope we get more spring like weather now than dogshit, so I hope he’s correct. 

There’s always the chance of something anomalous, but for all intents and purposes it’s over. That’s all. If you want to hold my ear to the fire then yeah....it’s not 0% I guess. 
 

I would love something anomalous, but I don’t have the same excitement looking at models like I usually do even a month ago.  
 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s always the chance of something anomalous, but for all intents and purposes it’s over. That’s all. If you want to hold my ear to the fire then yeah....it’s not 0% I guess. 
 

I would love something anomalous, but I don’t have the same excitement looking at models like I usually do even a month ago.  
 

I completely understand. And I agree with you.  That caveat that its not a 0% chance is always a good thing to keep in mind though.  That’s all I’m saying and thinking. 
 

And I know that you like to aggravate and  fire up the masses(Anthony) so I also get that too. I’m just hoping that we can get more nice weather than Not going forward, but we all know that’s another tall order. 

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s always the chance of something anomalous, but for all intents and purposes it’s over. That’s all. If you want to hold my ear to the fire then yeah....it’s not 0% I guess. 
 

I would love something anomalous, but I don’t have the same excitement looking at models like I usually do even a month ago.  
 

 

images.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

images.jpeg

Lmao…c’mon.  It’s all good.  I’m actually  Hoping we can go into spring and have some real nice weather.  I’m ready to put this sub-par winter season behind us..and get ready for the next season.  And hoping we fare better next winter here. 

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…c’mon.  It’s all good.  I’m actually  Hoping we can go into spring and have some real nice weather.  I’m ready to put this sub-par winter season behind us..and get ready for the next season.  And hoping we fare better next winter here. 

lol

Thats how i picture you staring at the computer screen typing furiously with those claw paws and sharp nails with blood dripping out of your mouth onto the keys from your last victim.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

He means winter is over. We’re ripe for dogshit easterly flow misery list until mid June some years. 
 

I don’t see any frigid winter wx conditions for the remainder of this season though. We lose the cold source in Canada after the next few days. We could still get snow though as bowling ball season happens during the final week of March into early April. The ensmebles are trying to show a potentially favorable period late month….but we know the caveats that come with ensembles. 

I am fortunate to live far enough west away from the coast that spring springs in April full force. No endless days of drizzle. This ain’t Westerly RI.

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Tomorrow's still a tricky day for diurnal.   On one hand ... we've entered the time of year when/where a west wind under a full sun is going to bust most machine -based numbers cold, however much or little.   On the other hand, tho day starts with a cold 925 to 850 mb and modest negative anomalies.  But it's not just those competing aspects.... The day actually ends warmer than normal in that level.   00z Tomorrow night,

image.png.16681a2675fc08d23286b822fc356496.png .... hm... Flips the script, within the daylight hours.  It's like it'll dawn 13 to 19 around the typical dungeon locales, and be mid 50s by 4pm ...that's some spectacular diurnal deltas if that happens - but that could be good for a nape stroll around 5 pm with the sun now setting later ( thus higher) and the wind light. 

 

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31 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I am fortunate to live far enough west away from the coast that spring springs in April full force. No endless days of drizzle. This ain’t Westerly RI.

You get plenty of trash in April and May in IJD. It’s better than where I am but you are easily east enough to get in on them fairly frequently. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Tomorrow's still a tricky day for diurnal.   On one hand ... we've entered the time of year when/where a west wind under a full sun is going to bust most machine -based numbers cold, however much or little.   On the other hand, tho day starts with a cold 925 to 850 mb and modest negative anomalies.  But it's not just those competing aspects.... The day actually ends warmer than normal in that level.   00z Tomorrow night,

image.png.16681a2675fc08d23286b822fc356496.png .... hm... Flips the script, within the daylight hours.  It's like it'll dawn 13 to 19 around the typical dungeon locales, and be mid 50s by 4pm ...that's some spectacular diurnal deltas if that happens - but that could be good for a nape stroll around 5 pm with the sun now setting later ( thus higher) and the wind light. 

 

Tip, I want to say thank you this past winter season for posting a lot of threads for storms and potential dates to keep an eye out for, same for Ray, Scott, Will and everyone else (whose real names I don't know etc). I am  not a hot/humid Summer person, Fall/Winter guy......life is short, enjoy all the seasons, before you know it we will all be talking about the upcoming Winter potential, and yes we will be a year older. Just wondering Tip, if this year you started to become a winter enthusiast as you say? Just don't recall years past, of you posting so many threads etc. Its all good....carry on.

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s pretty cool. Interestingly in CT East of river overall is higher in elevation than west of river .. caveat NW Hills have the highest elevation . Common misconception is there’s only a few small hills in E CT

if you zoom in, you can see the tolland peak!

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