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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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Hey PF ...

Monday's a 'diurnal spread watch' from what I am seeing.    ...I mean it's one of my little dorkisms about spring(autumn) season(s), to test the extremeness of diurnals?     I think you mentioned sharing in this crushing tedium LOL

But, that looks like decoupling Sunday night to a pretty deep layer... going to an interesting correction Monday afternoon. 

I think up your way, mid summit up, SW winds overnight - tougher there.  The valleys may actually not mix out at all the following afternoon on Monday. 

Otherwise, we could be dead calm 19 at dawn around SNE Monday morning, and make 57F that afternoon.  WSW flow during the day under full equinoxian full sun?  Seeing 850 mb explode from -11C at dawn, all the way to +3 by evening ...whilst dry advection/ clear ceiling, which means the mixing depth may extend higher than one may think.  The gradient seems too week to force that much correction at that level, so it's gotta be mixing...

Pretty cool.  Winter coats to heavy nape.    

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By the way ...for our winter enthusiasts, the anticipated 'bowling season' is showing up in the guidance as increasingly more plausible. 

One thing I'm seeing is the 'spring flash' passing over the operational models.  It's not a fixed "effect" year to year, but it's when the pervasive veneer of colder availability/in situ across the N-tier and southern Canada, abruptly retreats and/or modulates up.

This even this weekend appears to herald that in.  It appears to coil winter up with it and trundles away as a deep pattern changing bomb- which is almost like a symbolic "seasonal Archembault" thing ... (that's interesting).  anyway, next week we are left with more minoring 850 mb plumes and general warm tapestry of hydrostatic heights have taken over.  

*BUT* ... that still offers winter hope - ironically.   Because the flow is relaxed, and it is curved in nature.  The slowing velocities in the ambience allows that latter to happen, and there is the risk of closing off these parcels of mechanics.  That's 1997 incarnate - not saying that's walking through the door.  Just that closing off systems over marginal thickness settings is how you go from 64 F to 33 F at 10" of blue bomb snow ... which melts away in 3 days and your back in the 60s ...but, that's bowling season.

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30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Next week looks great. <3

Winds gradually subside Sunday as gradient relaxes and high pressure
builds to our south. Dry weather then prevails most of next week as
flow aloft becomes more zonal, which will allow for temperatures to
quickly rebound to above average for mid March.

We take

image.png

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Next week looks great. <3

Winds gradually subside Sunday as gradient relaxes and high pressure
builds to our south. Dry weather then prevails most of next week as
flow aloft becomes more zonal, which will allow for temperatures to
quickly rebound to above average for mid March.

We will be talking Stein in no time! 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We will be talking Stein in no time! 

i took a walk out in my back 40 yesterday, and there is some major water ponding going on. I imagine some of it has to do with the ground being frozen, but there is still a ton of water. my first thought was, if that Stein guy mentions anything about it being abnormally dry, or mentions the word drought, I am going to report his twitter post lol. because it is complete BS, at least up my way

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20 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i took a walk out in my back 40 yesterday, and there is some major water ponding going on. I imagine some of it has to do with the ground being frozen, but there is still a ton of water. my first thought was, if that Stein guy mentions anything about it being abnormally dry, or mentions the word drought, I am going to report his twitter post lol. because it is complete BS, at least up my way

Oh I know but people just love to indulge in that nonsense.  I want nothing more than a warm, abnormally dry summer.

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible way to end winter. Mostly rain here.

Yeah it’s all rain here and 40 degrees. This storm was always a long shot for us closer to the coast. It’s too bad, it’s a strong storm too. If we had blocking this would have likely been a blizzard, hopefully next winter the polar vortex cooperates more. Can’t really complain about winter for my area though, left some on the table but regardless, slightly above average snow with 20 inches in the monster blizzard late Jan. 

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Pattern gets kind of slow and blocky…not really huge arctic blocking per say, but bowling ball season with pseudo blocks in Canada…Tip alluded to this the other day. But this is showing up pretty strong on all ensemble guidance is we head into the equinox and beyond during the final week of March. 
 

So while we prance in the tulips a couple times next week, there’s a reasonable chance we haven’t seen our last accumulating snow…esp for interior. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern gets kind of slow and blocky…not really huge arctic blocking per say, but bowling ball season with pseudo blocks in Canada…Tip alluded to this the other day. But this is showing up pretty strong on all ensemble guidance is we head into the equinox and beyond during the final week of March. 
 

So while we prance in the tulips a couple times next week, there’s a reasonable chance we haven’t seen our last accumulating snow…esp for interior. 

Is it possible to prance in the tulips, have a chill to the nape, and to have snow chances all at the same time?

...The questions that weenies ponder as spring approaches. 

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern gets kind of slow and blocky…not really huge arctic blocking per say, but bowling ball season with pseudo blocks in Canada…Tip alluded to this the other day. But this is showing up pretty strong on all ensemble guidance is we head into the equinox and beyond during the final week of March. 
 

So while we prance in the tulips a couple times next week, there’s a reasonable chance we haven’t seen our last accumulating snow…esp for interior. 

Yeah. Might even need to watch next weekend too.

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