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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can't get any better than 12z EURO... about 2" QPF with perfectly placed thermals. Decent snow growth column.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-7162000.thumb.png.919fa7f852736b54eb3a4e15049930fa.png

What will skiing be like during day on Saturday at Stowe, freak?  I'll be there skiing friday and Saturday.  Take it they don't shut down unless winds are an issue?  

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's nice to see some models showing this. I was afraid of an all-out rainstorm for VT (which might still happen). I will likely be at Killington on Sunday but will change it to Whiteface if it trends NW. 

I want this to get as far east as possible right now.  I still think big early spring storm, convection in SE, could amp a bit on arrival.  Riding the line between big snow and big rain or mix.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I want this to get as far east as possible right now.  I still think big early spring storm, convection in SE, could amp a bit on arrival.  Riding the line between big snow and big rain or mix.

I hope you guys get in on this. 

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

What will skiing be like during day on Saturday at Stowe, freak?  I'll be there skiing friday and Saturday.  Take it they don't shut down unless winds are an issue?  

Provided the two-lane road to the ski area isn't completely screwed up on Harlow Hill from vehicles who can't climb it, it's fine.  Sunday looks very windy and regardless of P-Type on Saturday, I see significant lift operation issues on Sunday.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Provided the two-lane road to the ski area isn't completely screwed up on Harlow Hill from vehicles who can't climb it, it's fine.  Sunday looks very windy and regardless of P-Type on Saturday, I see significant lift operation issues on Sunday.

Every lift torn down in winds Saturday night?

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I want this to get as far east as possible right now.  I still think big early spring storm, convection in SE, could amp a bit on arrival.  Riding the line between big snow and big rain or mix.

No thanks...keep the QPF west. Stop trying to flood my chickens. lol

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Can't get any better than 12z GFS... about 2" QPF with perfectly placed thermals. Decent snow growth column.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-7162000.thumb.png.919fa7f852736b54eb3a4e15049930fa.png

Another map with a no/low snow arrowhead extending from IZG to southern NB while points N, S, W get more.  It's an odd dynamic, and almost never works out that way.

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lmao at the donut hole over central and southwestern Maine on the GFS. :axe: I'm now having a full blown melt. Let's get this POS winter out of here and hope that one of these years we can actually get a coastal that blows up in the Gulf. Enough of these gradient storms and endless warm sectors. The last three plus years here have just been brutal. We're badly overdue. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crush job for NNE on the 12z Euro....looked really good for many up there.

Much better look for Phin’s area than GFS/GGEM.  That spreads snows into far NW SNE and Backedge’s spot too.  Gives a bit of wiggle room up this way too.

6B8C8F24-C7FE-439A-853C-55D4620911BA.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Much better look for Phin’s area than GFS/GGEM.  That spreads snows into far NW SNE and Backedge’s spot too.  Gives a bit of wiggle room up this way too.

6B8C8F24-C7FE-439A-853C-55D4620911BA.png

I'm glad KALB is gonna get it good...that area has been an enormous snow hole. My outlook is going to really take it on the chin out there...and here.

What is KBTV at?

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I like the Euro's plan, personally... Season flips D6 ?  I'll take it!

Sunday bites balls with 35 mph gusts lingering under deep anomalies at 850 mb... figure mid 20s ( impressive cold for the date).  But it's shorter duration.   Wind relaxes ... yeah, it stays chilly Monday... but that's it.  

+15C recovery in 24 hours heading into Tuesday morning, with low ceiling RH values and WSW winds ...talking high 60 under pearl blue sun sear.  That's how you masseuse the napes.  

There is a more seasonal cool shot D7 ... but the ensemble mean from all three, GEF/GEP/EPS ... have warm 850 mb anomalies from D6 into noise on their respective runs.    It looks like the deep cold is cut off and relegating back to N Canada.   Which isn't to say April won't bust balls ..just that it's a nice look for spring enthusiasts.     ( caveat is always BD season )

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