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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah not sure where the confusion came from other than they’d had too much weed on a Saturday afternoon it shows a cold next 2 months 

I think it's because you posted a map of the next 45 days being well below normal a few hours you said looks like the calls for mild to warm march may verify...

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13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think it's because you posted a map of the next 45 days being well below normal a few hours you said looks like the calls for mild to warm march may verify...

Do you think it’s possible that there was some weed affecting a few posters interpretations of the map we posted yesterday afternoon and now apparently this morning ?

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think it might be over. The models look like trash moving forward.

If so then I will finish about 5 inches below normal here ( 22 inches )

Boston has 51 inches which is above normal .

There’s not really even overrunning look any longer. Not much to look forward to the next 2 months with no baseball other than college hoops 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s not really even overrunning look any longer. Not much to look forward to the next 2 months with no baseball other than college hoops 

UCONN making a deep run could help entertain us or win it all, was just watching(introducing) all the championship runs with my son, trying to pump him up. 

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11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

UCONN making a deep run could help entertain us or win it all, was just watching(introducing) all the championship runs with my son, trying to pump him up. 

Yeah.. I love this team . They’ve got everything in place for a deep run this year .  My oldest daughter has been to a couple games the least few weeks including the big win vs Nova last week .

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here’s what Kevin posted yesterday .. what’s the difference? I honestly don’t know. 

6306D71C-9D1D-435A-8C06-07D69427A058.jpeg

Well ... for a 'minor' start, the time ranges don't align. 

March is 30 days ( roughly...) in the first product in that comparison. The latter is 45.   "Maybe" there's some big climate-based signal for a dramatic cold in the first half of April that pulls that back...

But right - we doubt it. 

We are out here in shimmering example of disciplined source vetting, with citation, found amid the Internet vitriol ( LOL ) So ... who knows where these charts get lifted and/or how/why they were there, at their sources. They could be taken out of context, where the puller wasn't even bothering to look.  OR did... we don't know.  They might not even represent the same input parameters therein.. blah b'blah etc... 

Before even figuring out that morass ... my problem is that I cannot ignore the last 10 years of spring behaviors. They have been inconsistent with climate correlation most years.  ENSO warm?  didn't matter.  ENSO cool.  didn't matter. 

I think an entirely separate phenomenon has been happening to cripple these types of outlooks, ... or at least, impeding.   It's caused the atmospheric circulation modes to decouple from the ENSO warm(cool) modes that predated, and coexist in time while that is happening. The frequency of the decoupled states has been increasing in the last 20 ...particularly the last 10 years of observed winter-time hemispheres.  

The circulation modes are not always going to be all neatly tucked and coupled up. Obviously.. but that's why frequency is key metric.

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if this truly was the last significant measurable snow, then below 30" here for the second time in 10 years, and below 40 for the third, there was a few AN and about avg, winters sprinkled in, but damn... first two winters after moving up here were epic, 90+", had one that came close since, this is a 9 year span now

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8 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

if this truly was the last significant measurable snow, then below 30" here for the second time in 10 years, and below 40 for the third, there was a few AN and about avg, winters sprinkled in, but damn... first two winters after moving up here were epic, 90+", had one that came close since, this is a 9 year span now

The last two seasons of have weird + anomalies in small areas. Although I should say the areas in the northeast that had positive anomalies last year were much larger. 

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