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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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Looking closer at the Euro that's likely flashing to heavy snow ORH-Monads ...collapsing E 18 thru 21 z on Saturday early afternoon...  It would prooobably be like 1.5 hours of it, then moderate for 3 or 4 shredding out to flurries and also very strong backside wind pulse

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looking closer at the Euro that's likely flashing to heavy snow ORH-Monads ...collapsing E 18 thru 21 z on Saturday early afternoon...  It would prooobably be like 1.5 hours of it, then moderate for 3 or 4 shredding out to flurries and also very strong backside wind pulse

Damaging wind signal on all models Sat nite 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just like tomorrow it would favor elevations for Maximum amounts which is what we mentioned 

Lol…no. Tomorrow will be elevation dependent outside of the banding. Saturday elevation is a non factor, longitude is. You know this.  
 

But if the NAM’s are correct for tomorrow, elevation won’t matter much either. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…no. Tomorrow will be elevation dependent outside of the banding. Saturday elevation is a non factor, longitude is. You know this.  
 

But if the NAM’s are correct for tomorrow, elevation won’t matter much either. 

There is no cold source Saturday. There’s no cold High to the north so you’re relying on cold air to rush in and dynamics . That all favors elevations . Assuming it even is cold enough for snow there 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no cold source Saturday. There’s no cold High to the north so you’re relying on cold air to rush in and dynamics . That all favors elevations . Assuming it even is cold enough for snow there 

The cold rushes in behind it. It's not elevation dependent.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no cold source Saturday. There’s no cold High to the north so you’re relying on cold air to rush in and dynamics . That all favors elevations . Assuming it even is cold enough for snow there 

Uh?  It all depends on the track 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?  It all depends on the track 

Yep track and strength of the low. If the low is to our se and is as strong as depicted on guidance (eps mean in the 980s) this could get really interesting even for the coast. Even your area in NYC is in the game of the euro has the right idea with the low location.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It would be for maximum amounts.. again assuming it even happens 

I feel like when you jack due to elevation dependency..it's usually the storms like Wednesday, where you see a spot 4" or 5" vs 1"-3" in the low lands. Never in the bigger storms

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I feel like when you jack due to elevation dependency..it's usually the storms like Wednesday, where you see a spot 4" or 5" vs 1"-3" in the low lands. Never in the bigger storms

Exactly.  Tomorrow he will have the advantage if the warmer guidance is correct.(NAM’s are very cold at surface now).   In the bigger more substantial systems, or where boundary layer warmth isn’t a factor, it doesn’t matter.    

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Any torchier than it has been relentlessly since early-Feb

Maybe ....  This look (blw) is shared in essentials by the GEFs and GEPs for D9 ... It may be wet though. But plenty of time to adjust the boundary draped from DTX to BTV more NW of that axis, in which case we'd dry out and sore.   The only difference between this sort of look now compared to a month ago, is solar - add that to it and we start to synergize the warm days

eps-fast_T850a_us_10.png

One thing I'm noticing as a "hint" in the longer range ( beyond this weekend) is that the whole hemisphere appears to "flash" - it's when the cold suddenly bites less. The hydrostatic thicknessess rise sort of unilaterally all at once, and the colder mass ebbs back into higher latitudes of Canada.   This ... that may be how this season really ends it.  I've seen this other years, too... it's kind of interesting phenomenon for apparently no one else but me lol.  I mean it varies year to year.  Anyway, this weekend ordeal seems to coil up the cold around it and spins it away and continent below 55 N behind rapidly warms.  

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