March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

Yeah that is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis, I’m rooting for the ridge to trend more amplified to give the storm more room to dig and get farther se areas in the game.

It's a strong S/W so this won't come SE much if at all. I'd rather be in NY state or VT into Nrn NH.

[PhineasC]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think SNE is required to get drenched for NNE to score here (well maybe southeast SNE would need to be)...this has a big longitude component to it. Could be the type of system where it's ripping snow in western MA and western CT right up into VT/NH/W ME while it's raining in eastern Maine

Yeah, that works too. I just think the NNE ski areas need to really get hammered here. Some 0.65" liquid fringe job at 15 degrees while SNE is getting 2" of water won't be a game changer here. It'll "feel" like a "region wide win" but you know what I am getting at here.

[CoastalWx]

We'll see what the rest of the 12z stuff does, but I don't know if this is a candidate for SE ticks from where it's modeled now.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see what the rest of the 12z stuff does, but I don't know if this is a candidate for SE ticks from where it's modeled now.

I know I’m grasping at straws a bit here, but it’s a strong storm and not that far NW. What are a couple of wild card factors that could change things so us in eastern mass are in the game for big snows as well? Something like the energy closing off maybe? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

I know I’m grasping at straws a bit here, but it’s a strong storm and not that far NW. What are a couple of wild card factors that could change things so us in eastern mass are in the game for big snows as well? Something like the energy closing off maybe? 

Might have to watch that low off the SE coast too. If that intensifies a bit, it might shift the baroclinic zone SE a tad. You'll also want to see if the heights across SE Canada are lower (aids in a bit more confluence). The 12z GEFS did do that compared to 00z.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see what the rest of the 12z stuff does, but I don't know if this is a candidate for SE ticks from where it's modeled now.

There is a big spread on the ensembles.  This is still worth watching. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

There is a big spread on the ensembles.  This is still worth watching. 

Words I never thought I would hear from you.     

[mahk_webstah]

WE listen to Scott and Will, and take if from there...

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

WE listen to Scott and Will, and take if from there...

I’d watch for sure where you are to Hippy.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see what the rest of the 12z stuff does, but I don't know if this is a candidate for SE ticks from where it's modeled now.

Yeah I'm selling any snow here except maybe a touch at the end...not even sure if it's enough to accumulate.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might have to watch that low off the SE coast too. If that intensifies a bit, it might shift the baroclinic zone SE a tad. You'll also want to see if the heights across SE Canada are lower (aids in a bit more confluence). The 12z GEFS did do that compared to 00z.

That second low off the SE coast is interesting. When there are 2 lows like that, weird shit can happen like one of the lows absorbing the other. Doesn’t happen often, but I do remember one storm where it did. I was forecast to get 4-8 inches of snow and ended up with 2 feet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/03/mid-week-light-snows-possible-prelude.html

 

[dryslot]

Rain to snow on the 12z Euro for the weekend system, That would be a mauler, Longitude would be key for this.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm selling any snow here except maybe a touch at the end...not even sure if it's enough to accumulate.

Lol...check out the euro.

[MJO812]

Weekend storm trending flatter and east

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weekend storm trending flatter and east

West is best with this one. Let’s do it WOR. 

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

Euro may have trended even a little more SE for Saturday from 00z, but pretty close. That would actually be interesting for many. But want to see a bit more support before really buying something like that.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good low location 

[dendrite]

That's a dynamic quick thump for the chooks.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Good low location 

That’s quite a storm here for this area on the Euro…975 mb…that’s no joke. 

[toller65]

Euro clown?

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s quite a storm here for this area on the Euro…975 mb…that’s no joke. 

It's sort of elongated though, not wrapped up to give the prolonged heavy rates and wind. But that's what you'll need to see if you want any chance. Like Will said, I'd like for other guidance to move that way.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, toller65 said:

Euro clown?

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

 

[dryslot]

Its timing waves along a FROPA, Not crazy about that scenario.

[EastonSN+]

Sooooo close.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's sort of elongated though, not wrapped up to give the prolonged heavy rates and wind. But that's what you'll need to see if you want any chance. Like Will said, I'd like for other guidance to move that way.

This may be on the verge ( future runs...) of converting into an even more open wave/ intense fropa, and this run catches the eyes mid way ... in other words, the low ends up more middling on a very intense cold front... 

Some notables that are pushing the climate tin on previous runs.   ROA to CAR motion of the cyclone in 10 or 12 hours, while bombing 30 mb.

It's a little odd ...impossible?  NO. But strange.   

I tend to be a fan of pathways of lesser resistance and that seems like a difficult logistic achievement there, but we'll see. 

Also, there is a ceiling event isollabaric wind potential if that happens.  Because we don't feel  the wind on the front side, where the motion of the cyclone is almost the same speed as the restoring acceleration, but when that house sucker low leaves the region, the full payload comes in the back side from a deep pressure well... you get the drill.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

I’d hit that. 

[PhineasC]

I don’t have a good feeling about this one. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this one. 

This has a huge upside up your way...   In fact, I'd say that is the case from about CON ...maaaybe MHT NH latitudes on up.

That's based on the GEFs ensemble mean and nuances in the operational run. 

In general:  I'd like to point out to folks the 101 rule of continuity:    you need it.

The 00z Euro looks one way.  Then, the 12z looks like a better (for winter enthusiasts).  That is reduced continuity.   I mean if getting it right is any goal, that's not inherently supporting the Euro.

That said, by the time we get to central NE and points N-E, the models are trying to max out dynamics - perhaps unrealistically so at that but cross the bridge.  it probably I could see it doing weird things near Fryeburg ME... where there is cat paw rains with giant partially refrozen gulf ball that are quasi hail, with lightning and thunder .. flashes over to S triple + for 2 hours then ending...    That's pretty wild stuff...

But, seeing these guidance en masse trying to really press this on a more E track - like I was saying to Scott, I wonder if all this is "model flux" en route to more of a whsiky wave on an extreme fropa.   If that happens ...this ends up a faux ANA