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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

WTF else is new.  
 

But They can have the 2” Lol. 

Actually gave your 'hood 3-4" but SE MA had like 5"...might be too aggressive, but it's a nice fronto band.

Sfc wil be warm at the start, but it would wetbulb quickly. This isn't one of those spring isothermal soundings. 925mb is quite cold actually (like -4 to -5C)

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually gave your 'hood 3-4" but SE MA had like 5"...might be too aggressive, but it's a nice fronto band.

Sfc wil be warm at the start, but it would wetbulb quickly. This isn't one of those spring isothermal soundings. 925mb is quite cold actually (like -4 to -5C)

We’ll if that’s the case… ok lol.  But it’s most likely overdone…that’s been the trend all winter unfortunately. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ll if that’s the case… ok lol.  But it’s most likely overdone…that’s been the trend all winter unfortunately. 

Yeah it could easily be garbage...if it's too weak, then it'll just be light snow with a coating to maybe a couple inches in the higher terrain or could even still be mostly a whiff if it trends back much weaker....but if it trends a little stronger, then it's a real system. There's still a couple days to go and it's been steadily trending a bit stronger each run the past few cycles which is why it is now getting some snow in here instead of completely whiffing like previously.

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Ukie and GGEM are trying to give NNE a lot of snow for the weekend system. They are flattening it out just a bit and pushing it east before it amplifies. The Ukie even gets decent snow into the northwest parts of SNE. Not really biting on those solutions yet, but something to watch. Hopefully NNE can get this colder to help with the March skiing.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie and GGEM are trying to give NNE a lot of snow for the weekend system. They are flattening it out just a bit and pushing it east before it amplifies. The Ukie even gets decent snow into the northwest parts of SNE. Not really biting on those solutions yet, but something to watch. Hopefully NNE can get this colder to help with the March skiing.

I did notice the GFS was attempting to do it to.  I mean we'll need something.  If next weekend rains and torches, might be joining Kev on the bring the early heat train, ha.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I did notice the GFS was attempting to do it to.  I mean we'll need something.  If next weekend rains and torches, might be joining Kev on the bring the early heat train, ha.

 

Where does the mountain stand in terms of snow anomaly for the season?    I think you have a graph of that IIRC. 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I did notice the GFS was attempting to do it to.  I mean we'll need something.  If next weekend rains and torches, might be joining Kev on the bring the early heat train, ha.

Way to early for it ... buuut, it does remind me.  I'm interested in whether NW NE and Southern Ontario/Quebec host late April thru early June heat waves again.

I've noticed that tendency over recent years, to go along with a lot of other subtle/under the radar CC -related likeliness ... strongly suspect to be so.

What happens is residual fast flow curls around high pressure nodes in that area, with any SW/W heat expulsion getting caught in side... The Mid Atlantic to coastal New England doesn't fair so "hot" because said curl wraps around and pulls a tongue of cooler 850 mb air from the Maritimes .. all the way down to where it turns NW and comes in on a SSE flow mash up dimmed warming.    Like PHL-BOS will be 84/55, but 96/48 at BTV so to speak

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather keep it 60 and showers Saturday, then trend it to a steadier rain and 45.

It's March....you know where it's going to trend. Bury powderfreak while we get 42F and heavy rain for most of the storm.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just because its March doesn't mean a storm has to trend east. I would expect more than that from you.

Well it's already trending east....

But aside from just an upper level east trend, specifically in March, you have colder SSTs plus a cryo-generated cold source to the north which acts as an inhibitor to LL WAA versus a month like December....it acts to strengthen Tip's PPT configuration coming down the coast of Maine. It's why so many "modeled" nice days in spring turn into 40F and dogshit.

So yeah, I'd expect it to trend more into a 40s and rain instead of 60F unless we can really wind this up to our west and have the low track over western NY. Still possible, but right now I'm betting against the prolonged warm sector.

 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it's already trending east....

But aside from just an upper level east trend, specifically in March, you have colder SSTs plus a cryo-generated cold source to the north which acts as an inhibitor to LL WAA versus a month like December....it acts to strengthen Tip's PPT configuration coming down the coast of Maine. It's why so many "modeled" nice days in spring turn into 40F and dogshit.

So yeah, I'd expect it to trend more into a 40s and rain instead of 60F unless we can really wind this up to our west and have the low track over western NY. Still possible, but right now I'm betting against the prolonged warm sector.

 

All of that will probably matter now, since it would mean cold rain, after an entire season of finding least excuse imaginable to pork the majority.

I don't really care what it does, but if I could choose, it would be warm.

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The way this winter went ?   Winter won't die if it means drillin one last tortured blue baller BD ...seemingly on life support just so's it gets to do that.  Everywhere SW-W-NW of us, we are surrounded by a rampart of 80F 

39 in still air under slate gray skies east of the Berks

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

marginal temps - daytime, 925 cold as Will has said.. but it drops a quarter to a half inch of qpf over CT.. 

Marginal's fine at this time of year.   10 minutes in marginal with fall rates into moderate density will have golf balls side carring cozy rain drops.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

why do so many on Twitter seemed surprised about this snow potential Wednesday? Signal was there since last Thursday/Friday.

um... the previous 4 months of persistent experience ?  

just a guess -

In fact, it's still highly probable, based upon the paranoid persecution complex model (the PPCM), that we'll spend the next day and a half gettin all lubed up and ready to go and then she'll pull up panties and run for the Atlantic door on us

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