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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I hope there’s something. We all know very well this is a tease. So if this can’t last, I hope the region can get something. 

It's all good...Ray can settle for cleaning 3" off his car Thursday morning.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope there’s something. We all know very well this is a tease. So if this can’t last, I hope the region can get something. 

Yes, I said this same thing yesterday afternoon.  
 

This is the equivalent to an inch or two in October…here and gone and then you’re back to normal autumnal weather.  This is no different.  A couple mild days, and then back to dung.  Would be nice to get something substantial this March, since this is all a dream soon. 

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Dunno what this optimism is for a light snow event on Wed. The whole thing looks like trash. Winds out of the south. Timing is very early afternoon Wed--no help there. And even if you get the best synoptic look as advertised on the euro/rgem, surface temps are cooked, and rates are too low to overcome. Flakes and wet surfaces, at best. NEXT.

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Dunno what this optimism is for a light snow event on Wed. The whole thing looks like trash. Winds out of the south. Timing is very early afternoon Wed--no help there. And even if you get the best synoptic look as advertised on the euro/rgem, surface temps are cooked, and rates are too low to overcome. Flakes and wet surfaces, at best. NEXT.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It smelled like a rat all season. We tried to flood it again and again with poison but it kept staying alive. Now he’s laughing at us…suckers.

Going back to the fall it had the feel of a ratastic winter incoming and it lived up to the advanced billing lol

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40 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Dunno what this optimism is for a light snow event on Wed. The whole thing looks like trash. Winds out of the south. Timing is very early afternoon Wed--no help there. And even if you get the best synoptic look as advertised on the euro/rgem, surface temps are cooked, and rates are too low to overcome. Flakes and wet surfaces, at best. NEXT.

Ah let 'em have their solace man.  We could very well be writing the mortem pages of this winter's tortured novel, anyway .. Lol. 

I mean it's snark humor, but it's kinda of true.  If what I am seeing overnight is any signal of worth .. that critter may be a last hope to resuscitate this palliative 10 days remaining.

You know ...I've come to sense over the years, there really is like a post mortem angst at this time of year in some folk.  But, the crucible of time purifies this the engagement, in this particular social media platform, to be a concentration of those heads.  It's a real S.A.D. experiment by accident of it's existence.  

There's a semblance here of "negative S.A.D." ... It's real condition -seriously.  It afflicts some 10 to 15% of the background population ... Those of that minority are equally "jilted" by the loss of 'darkness', colder stormier times - essentially the opposite of the majority S.A.D. types that get pissy in the autumn.  

When I first muse-read of that I was intrigued ... Intrigued because the description was so spot on matching the tamber of posting content. The music that happens around here when either, storms miss, season begins to exhibit migration toward spring, ...or just any warm look overall.   

But ... this isn't intended to gas-light anyone.   I have shared in this in my personal head-space when in my youth - or some variant of it.  I did not like thinking or facing the prospect of dwindling snow pack and escaping storm chances, or how the sun became undeniable more illuminating in mid February -->  ... It's just that as I've gotten older my wiring has changed on all that.  I just have become someone that can change geek gears on a dime, equally dorking out on heat waves( cold waves) respectively... 

Except Aprils - .. never can for some reason forgive Satan's rectum month 

 

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14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Winter's over huh? Now that all of the snow is melted. All I can see if the sticks that fell all winter. Got an email from my golf league today. It's over. Let's go!

Not as though to be taken seriously ..per se ( eh hm), but did you see the 00z Euro operational 10 day layout...  That's a full on SW heat expulsion/release - or in the minimum, an analog behavior.  

Centered on the 15th -17th, that's what has become of the original Ides signal from a week ago.  LOL  ... Pretty much polar opposite.

Thing is,... the EPO was supposed to behave differently.  It was even modeled to - sort of - do so, enough that it might go ahead and punch up the +PNA ... With erstwhile -EPO having loaded cold over Canada and near-by, boom...   right?

Wrong

That migration in the mass-field hasn't since improved coherency in the models.  It has in fact... decayed.  Now, the EPO blizzum blazzum retros back to Kamchatka...and the Pac punches through with a zonal flow that's bottling the cold JB or above latitude, and flooding the mid lat continent S pretty much in spring.  Even the GFS operational has a couple of huge warm thickness plumes -

Unfortunately for the winter-lorn, without that EPO relay into the PNA ... I don't see anything out there that renders us back to a March winter. In fact, the opposite when looking a that standard PNA/AO/NAO metrics.  That, plus the last 10 years of proving that we can 80 at this time of year...

As an aside, that's gotta be CC related. Sorry... Too often, regardless of any seasonal telecon, air ocean or coupled, that has happened...  I have no eye-rollin' inhibition in adding that factor to this too.    

Euro likely doesn't verify? But I don't say that because of climate, any more.   Only by virtue of D 10 uncertainty, alone.   The former proves it certainly can and will happen if given the synoptics.  

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah let 'em have their solace man.  We could very well be writing the mortem pages of this winter's tortured novel, anyway .. Lol. 

I mean it's snark humor, but it's kinda of true.  If what I am seeing overnight is any signal of worth .. that critter may be a last hope to resuscitate this palliative 10 days remaining.

You know ...I've come to sense over the years, there really is like a post mortem angst at this time of year in some folk.  But, the crucible of time purifies this the engagement, in this particular social media platform, to be a concentration of those heads.  It's a real S.A.D. experiment by accident of it's existence.  

There's a semblance here of "negative S.A.D." ... It's real condition -seriously.  It afflicts some 10 to 15% of the background population ... Those of that minority are equally "jilted" by the loss of 'darkness', colder stormier times - essentially the opposite of the majority S.A.D. types that get pissy in the autumn.  

When I first muse-read of that I was intrigued ... Intrigued because the description was so spot on matching the tamber of posting content. The music that happens around here when either, storms miss, season begins to exhibit migration toward spring, ...or just any warm look overall.   

But ... this isn't intended to gas-light anyone.   I have shared in this in my personal head-space when in my youth - or some variant of it.  I did not like thinking or facing the prospect of dwindling snow pack and escaping storm chances, or how the sun became undeniable more illuminating in mid February -->  ... It's just that as I've gotten older my wiring has changed on all that.  I just have become someone that can change geek gears on a dime, equally dorking out on heat waves( cold waves) respectively... 

Except Aprils - .. never can for some reason forgive Satan's rectum month 

 

Oh I get it.

 

BUT 1002 mb low in southern ontario and 1007 mb low south of LI - March 9. Antecedent airmass is AN. Maybe if lived in the carolinas I'd get excite about stuff like this. Seriously. The H5 vort essentiality evaporates. Looks more like a weak fropa than anything else. QPF has clowns clownin'. Fast forward to 18z Wed, when it's 42 at BDL with precip moving in on a south wind, and weenies waiting for sunset.

 

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