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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

Its been since 1997 that there was an area wide event in very late March or April. I mean double digit( or at least 8 inches) snows to the valley floor. They have missed northern CT and much of southern mass to the south and north

How often do double digit events to the valley floor out in S MA and N CT happen in very late March or April? It’s prob like a 1 in 30 or 40 year return rate. The only ones I can think of that gave double digits to the valley floor there were April ‘97 and April ‘82. Might have to go all the way back to April 1924 to get the next one. 
 

All those post-3/24 events from 1996, 1987, 1984, 1970, 1958, 1956, 1967, etc did not bring widespread double digits to the valley floor there.  

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Temps should shoot up when that dry sector punches through. At least that’s how it’s been modeled…we’ll see. 
33° and RA right now

Yup ...good call.

61 and mostly sun here out of no where.   Like walked through a door into a Narnia world compared to 2 hours ago.

36 at dawn here, with murk and fog.  61 and sun and probably heading for 65 ( classic MOS bust)  ... 

So despite my warm bust' post a while ago, it appears warm front was more delayed .. It's funny how this happens though sometimes. The warm front comes through, and it goes from a delay/busty, to correcting actually warmer than guidance.  interesitng

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy sh*t... it's 69F in ROC, 68F in SYR and 62F in ART.

Very warm sliver of air moving in with that dry slot... we'll see what we can punch to in New England.

It's real... 
I'm singularly impressed with how abrupt this warm frontal intrusion has either thrust into the region... or just abruptly mixed out. Probably some of both.  It was 36 at 7am here. 

You know, I was looking at the hi res vis loop, ...pissed off and disgruntled at the delay of warm arrival this morning...  Yet, you could see that granular texture in the cleared areas of eastern NY... Crispy edges to cloud debris is very summer like.   In fact, when the fog lifted here actually about 2.5 hours ago, it revealed a sky that looked like a May tapestry under alto level elevated ceilings.  But it was still just 44 F at the time though.  A splash of sun came through about 11...and it was 51 very fast. The air started to smell like summer b.o. a little... 62 with mostly sun right now. 

sorry -   It's just I think these sudden seasonal exit-entrance scenarios in the spring are fascinating.   I mean, I've seen it go from 91 to 40 in 2 hours fro BDs.... I've seen it go from 36 to 66 in a warm frontal instrusion like today.  

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

70F ELM and 71F PEO and 69F at ITH….my old college stomping grounds would be enjoying the faux spring day. 

image.png.4420520501f4533c9d982bf829370da4.png

That's actually a recovery of the PNA there...  Remember yesterday(this morning ) discussing how the EPO didn't look like it would relay as well, but that is actually quite a bit better than the last 2 days prior - that "might" be enough to signal there.  

It does time for a 06z/12z GFS blend ...about 168 -190 hrs. 

Just sayn' but ...there's also been a remarkably persistent tendency have the next run go out of it's way to seemingly constructively interfere with one's optimism.. .LOL...  so there's that too -

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's real... 
I'm singularly impressed with how abrupt this warm frontal intrusion has either thrust into the region... or just abruptly mixed out. Probably some of both.  It was 36 at 7am here. 

You know, I was looking at the hi res vis loop, ...pissed off and disgruntled at the delay of warm arrival this morning...  Yet, you could see that granular texture in the cleared areas of eastern NY... Crispy edges to cloud debris is very summer like.   In fact, when the fog lifted here actually about 2.5 hours ago, it revealed a sky that looked like a May tapestry under alto level elevated ceilings.  But it was still just 44 F at the time though.  A splash of sun came through about 11...and it was 51 very fast. The air started to smell like summer b.o. a little... 62 with mostly sun right now. 

sorry -   It's just I think these sudden seasonal exit-entrance scenarios in the spring are fascinating.   I mean, I've seen it go from 91 to 40 in 2 hours fro BDs.... I've seen it go from 36 to 66 in a warm frontal instrusion like today.  

It kinda feels like one of those May mornings where we're rotting in fog ahead of the warm front until about 10am in the 50s and then it just blasts through with SW flow and continuous WAA through evening. 3pm it's mid 80s and still slowly climbing.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

How often do double digit events to the valley floor out in S MA and N CT happen in very late March or April? It’s prob like a 1 in 30 or 40 year return rate. The only ones I can think of that gave double digits to the valley floor there were April ‘97 and April ‘82. Might have to go all the way back to April 1924 to get the next one. 
 

All those post-3/24 events from 1996, 1987, 1984, 1970, 1958, 1956, 1967, etc did not bring widespread double digits to the valley floor there.  

I thought maybe it was less than that heck there's mention of events that have put down a foot of windblown snow in the NYC to DC corridor in April which missed New England 

.. see some of Ludlum's notes

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Just now, dendrite said:

It kinda feels like one of those May mornings where we're rotting in fog ahead of the warm front until about 10am in the 50s and then it just blasts through with SW flow and continuous WAA through evening. 3pm it's mid 80s and still slowly climbing.

Exactly!  ...only like 20 F down the scale but it's really quite analogous to that. yes -

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