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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final day of full cover . I fear this may be the last snow OTG SNE sees this winter season . Always bittersweet 
 

 

I highly doubt it’s the last snow. I can think of only one year where our last snowfall of more than an inch was in February. 1994-1995. Even 2011-12 had a front ender in March that dropped several inches. Might have screwed your area though…can’t quite remember. 

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know about the mid month aspect anymore..   Not feelin' it on this one. 

The indicators are dubious at best, and the -EPO may not be enough to do it alone at this time of year.  We need the -EPO to relay/lag into a +PNA rise, and there is one but it is not very large... That doesn't send the best signal down stream...  Plus, when we are soaking 40 N with near equinox sun now, radiative forcing modulates more and more.  I'm seeing the models correcting some of the cold air mass cores a little already..

So you know we've had blizzards through April and we may very well... I'm not talking about bowling season and/or catching a break on a lucky stream sync.  Those are separate means for getting it done.  I'm speaking mainly to the "orderly H.A." idea.

The GEFs ensemble mean has two roll-out warm-ups if anything, between the 13th and the 20th, and this matches reasonably well with the operational version.   The whole American model system wants an oscillatory pattern in a progressive/longitudinal flow type.

There are a minority of members that have more commitment to something on the EC... They are mangled Miller Bs or smeared Miller As. Arriving from different means that appear to be more typical long lead noise.  

My previous optimism was based upon the +PNA emerging as the -EPO block subside ...not an atypical relay.  But the latter doesn't appear to be emerging robust enough to force the correction event.  I remember one year it stayed usually cold in Canad almost to the middle of April.  What year was that? End up with NP floods when it warmed finally in May. But not much cold anomaly really came south of the Dakotas that year.. You know, it's possible we load Canada with -EPO dump and don't get much going S of the 45 L other than what the GEFs is showing..

EPO kind of retrogrades back northwest a bit whereas on guidance earlier this week it was folding the block over eastward into a PNA burst….so I agree the pristine look has degraded. There’s still a western ridge spike but it’s not shooting up into NW territories now….it’s more constrained to the CONUS and maybe southern BC. That’s still enough for a potential system but it requires more shortwave cooperation than those rare synoptic beasts that are almost predestined to happen when you get long waves syncing up. 

 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I highly doubt it’s the last snow. I can think of only one year where our last snowfall of more than an inch was in February. 1994-1995. Even 2011-12 had a front ender in March that dropped several inches. Might have screwed your area though…can’t quite remember. 

Early April 1995 had a quick burst of snow where I lived in Central CT.

We got a good three inches of heavy wet snow on a Saturday morning if I recall correctly

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not snow. Just glare ice. Anyway, winter has effectively ended 

Definitely can tell the difference with solar Phil where people get lots of sun vs less sun. You go from 4-6” to tulips growing.  Even down in Duxbury they have coverage thanks to the woods.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely can tell the difference with solar Phil where people get lots of sun vs less sun. You go from 4-6” to tulips growing.  Even down in Duxbury they have coverage thanks to the woods.

Driving from here to Fitchburg and back it was very evident. Once you got north of ORH you could see it was all snow and actually had melted out more in sunny areas with no ice. More coverage on south facing areas south of Pike. But in the Fitchburg area in shaded spots or non exposed there was still 6-8” easily . That last SWFE was so typical. 

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

Early April 1995 had a quick burst of snow where I lived in Central CT.

We got a good three inches of heavy wet snow on a Saturday morning if I recall correctly

Yea I remember that. It missed us south. 4/8/95 I think. It was after that ridiculous cold outbreak we got on 4/5 and 4/6

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That was brutal.  Spring track ftl in that. 

We had a high of like 25F in full sun with zero pack in April during that cold outbreak. It’s really hard to beat that. It was brutally windy too. The only max temps on record colder than that in ORH were on snowy days or days with fresh snow cover. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

???

I just got back from soccer tourney in Fitchburg and took pic facing there from car. Here’s mine and pic from the field earlier . Enjoy the CAD up there

tFic2IG.jpg

VOo7rB8.jpg

Sorry...wasn't trying to trigger you like that. I just feel like from your pics over the years that your yard is the first to torch out. Your front yard just gets more afternoon sun I guess.

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

People with small kids of varying ability. Plus the conditions in the trees need to be timed. I ski five days a week so I go in the trees if conditions are good for it. Not too often in NH the last two winters, IMO. 

Like I said, when the conditions are right.

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Literally thousands of people 

Their loss.

I'm gonna go find some slushy, bumpy goodness on Monday B)

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Sorry...wasn't trying to trigger you like that. I just feel like from your pics over the years that your yard is the first to torch out. Your front yard just gets more afternoon sun I guess.

I have the torchiest yard in my hood. My front melts quicker than Ray in a cold coastal. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPO kind of retrogrades back northwest a bit whereas on guidance earlier this week it was folding the block over eastward into a PNA burst….so I agree the pristine look has degraded. There’s still a western ridge spike but it’s not shooting up into NW territories now….it’s more constrained to the CONUS and maybe southern BC. That’s still enough for a potential system but it requires more shortwave cooperation than those rare synoptic beasts that are almost predestined to happen when you get long waves syncing up. 

 

Yeah ... this is basically agreeing with my coverage.  Losing that PNA relay is frustrating.  Was really good before. It could return.  Obviously you know this but signals can 'pulse' as they approach in the guidance.  It's just hard to know if that is the case in March -

I still think there could be a system at the other side of the EPO ...  I mean, there will be cold near by and the flow may relax - that's more of a bowling frame-up probability so tfwiw. 

 

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On 3/4/2022 at 5:56 PM, DavisStraight said:

If only I saved my baseball cards, my friend/neighbor did and sold them for 5k, a few years later he could have had triple that but he did better than me.

I have a decent collection, a lot from my childhood (80s early 90s).  1,500 or so hard plastic and 10,000 sleeved, around 100 Jordans. :)

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had a high of like 25F in full sun with zero pack in April during that cold outbreak. It’s really hard to beat that. It was brutally windy too. The only max temps on record colder than that in ORH were on snowy days or days with fresh snow cover. 

I don't recall that one, but I remember 4/9/97...blustery and in the 20s all day.

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15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I have a decent collection, a lot from my childhood (80s early 90s).  1,500 or so hard plastic and 10,000 sleeved, around 100 Jordans. :)

Our basement has over 4000 vinyl records categorized in wooden racks.  I’ve been collecting LP’s since I was 12.  However, they take up a lot more space than sports cards and it will be a problem if we ever move.  :rolleyes:

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sorry...wasn't trying to trigger you like that. I just feel like from your pics over the years that your yard is the first to torch out. Your front yard just gets more afternoon sun I guess.

No trigger. Just all amped up over Uconn. Gonna be a deep tourney run this year. There’s a small area near the street that melts out first this time of year yes 

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