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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Reminds me of some snooze-fest of a work meeting.  Upper management piling on the charts and graphs, while the rest of the room is desperately trying hard not to fall asleep.   We just need a few pie charts to complete the picture. 

You realize the charts are derived from model output. Sounds like you have a boring job though.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d look at two periods…first one is maybe 3/11 where a front running wave tries to get us. Not super excited about that one but it’s been on and off guidance for a few cycles now. 
 

The better window is prob like 3/14-3/17. There’s a western ridge that spikes a bit around then (see below EPS)….no guarantees for anything but that is synoptically the best window if we have one more good one in us

 

C2DD4FC6-A660-4FFF-8D61-C65859A84C06.png

 

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see. Right now there’s no threats for NNE and the 3/12 system looks cutter-ish. Can still change though. A couple high-QPF snowers for NNE mid-month would really help. 

 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh you don't ski the woods anyways. The groomers will be fine and I fully expect ski areas to rack it up after this thaw. That's my opinion and has zero to do with what I want to see. You doubted me last week then got 20 or so. I will get back to you March 21st and see how the skiing is.

Who doesn't ski trees? If the conditions are sufficient that's the only place I want to be.

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1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Who doesn't ski trees? If the conditions are sufficient that's the only place I want to be.

A lot of people who like cruisers don’t ski trees. I love trees usually but there are days I don’t want to deal with them or if my legs are shot after a bunch of tough runs, I’ll want to relax on some cruisers. 

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3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Who doesn't ski trees? If the conditions are sufficient that's the only place I want to be.

People with small kids of varying ability. Plus the conditions in the trees need to be timed. I ski five days a week so I go in the trees if conditions are good for it. Not too often in NH the last two winters, IMO. 

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15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The snow in NNE over the last week is the kind where it piles up to six inches but then you step on it and it’s now half an inch. 

The best powder out there.  Champagne blower billowing behind every turn.  Luckily we got enough of it to get the trees back fully for the week.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

For sure. Just doesn’t hold up well here when the downsloping off Madison and Adams starts. It is obliterated within like 10 mins. LOL

Oh for sure lol.  It's real fun when it falls.  Looking at most of the numbers around it seems like about 1" of QPF was good for about 20" of snow during this last pattern.  Probably like 1.5" in the mountains where 30" totals came in 7 days.  It took a few events but it did add at least some QPF to the pack and that fluff in the mountains can absorb some water now vs. the lower stuff that's the texture/hardness of a concrete driveway :lol:.

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I don't know about the mid month aspect anymore..   Not feelin' it on this one. 

The indicators are dubious at best, and the -EPO may not be enough to do it alone at this time of year.  We need the -EPO to relay/lag into a +PNA rise, and there is one but it is not very large... That doesn't send the best signal down stream...  Plus, when we are soaking 40 N with near equinox sun now, radiative forcing modulates more and more.  I'm seeing the models correcting some of the cold air mass cores a little already..

So you know we've had blizzards through April and we may very well... I'm not talking about bowling season and/or catching a break on a lucky stream sync.  Those are separate means for getting it done.  I'm speaking mainly to the "orderly H.A." idea.

The GEFs ensemble mean has two roll-out warm-ups if anything, between the 13th and the 20th, and this matches reasonably well with the operational version.   The whole American model system wants an oscillatory pattern in a progressive/longitudinal flow type.

There are a minority of members that have more commitment to something on the EC... They are mangled Miller Bs or smeared Miller As. Arriving from different means that appear to be more typical long lead noise.  

My previous optimism was based upon the +PNA emerging as the -EPO block subside ...not an atypical relay.  But the latter doesn't appear to be emerging robust enough to force the correction event.  I remember one year it stayed usually cold in Canad almost to the middle of April.  What year was that? End up with NP floods when it warmed finally in May. But not much cold anomaly really came south of the Dakotas that year.. You know, it's possible we load Canada with -EPO dump and don't get much going S of the 45 L other than what the GEFs is showing..

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final day of full cover . I fear this may be the last snow OTG SNE sees this winter season . Always bittersweet 
 

36xImMk.jpg

It’s always way more wintry looking in your neighbor’s yard. Must drive you crazy.

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