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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My kid (almost 11) has a small fortune worth of original Star Wars toys, Matchbox cars and comic books.   I don’t really care, he enjoys them so let it be.  For the most part he’s treated everything gentle except for a few cringe worthy comic book losses.

If only I saved my baseball cards, my friend/neighbor did and sold them for 5k, a few years later he could have had triple that but he did better than me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't give until April 2nd, my birthday, we all know what happened on April 1st, even then the suns so warm you can only enjoy it for a day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

15/6  It has been a cold first week of March.   I still have snow on my driveway from the early week snow showers and full snow pack from last Friday's storm.

Of course it’s been, it’s still winter…despite what some might say or think.  And it may get colder and more winters like before it gets better.  This ain’t Maryland, it’s SNE in early March!

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course it’s been, it’s still winter…despite what some might say or think.  And it may get colder and more winters like before it gets better.  This ain’t Maryland, it’s SNE in early March!

Long range looks BN for much of NE, just need to get a potent low to roll under SNE, because the cold will be there.  The 10th through 20th is our best window me thinks.

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12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Long range looks BN for much of NE, just need to get a potent low to roll under SNE, because the cold will be there.  The 10th through 20th is our best window me thinks.

Absolutely Hippy. BN looks like it’s in the cards for the most part going forward. So why not root for a nice low to roll underneath us all. 

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On 3/3/2022 at 8:12 AM, dryslot said:

Hope @OceanStWxthis one wasn't your forecast............:yikes:

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It was not.

I was long term that day, but obviously had one eye on the short term. I saw the 06z GFS rip almost 5 for PWM and thought WTF. So I checked around on Bufkit and there were a couple sneaky crosshair type signatures. 

These are the sneaky events that I wish we had more time to do internal reviews of. 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which days are you looking at later this coming week?

I’d look at two periods…first one is maybe 3/11 where a front running wave tries to get us. Not super excited about that one but it’s been on and off guidance for a few cycles now. 
 

The better window is prob like 3/14-3/17. There’s a western ridge that spikes a bit around then (see below EPS)….no guarantees for anything but that is synoptically the best window if we have one more good one in us

 

C2DD4FC6-A660-4FFF-8D61-C65859A84C06.png

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14 hours ago, dendrite said:

A few of these?

image.jpegimage.jpeg

A T-206 Wagner card graded in fair to poor condition is coming up for auction later this month. The card was once owned by Charlie Sheen. During the mid 90's Sheen lent the card to the Official All Star Cafe in NYC. While the card was on display there it was stolen by an employee of the cafe and replace with a fake Wagner card. The FBI was able to recover the card. Sheen sold the card in the early 2000's. I'm sure he regrets selling the card.

The card is part of a set that was released during the years 1909-1911. It is often referred to as the "White Border" set. It is considered the Holy Grail of baseball card sets. Tens of thousands of cards were printed for most of the  players included in the set with the exception of the Wagner card. No one can say for certain how many of the Wagner cards were printed. Estimates range from 75 -275.  And it is estimated that less than 75 authentic Wagner cards are known to still exist.

Fakes of both the Wagner card and Mantle card have been known to circulate in the collecting world.  Fakes are generally easy to spot by a collector with a trained eye BUT some scammers go to great lengths to make a card appear to be authentic and from the time period the card was issued in. 

 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d look at two periods…first one is maybe 3/11 where a front running wave tries to get us. Not super excited about that one but it’s been on and off guidance for a few cycles now. 
 

The better window is prob like 3/14-3/17. There’s a western ridge that spikes a bit around then (see below EPS)….no guarantees for anything but that is synoptically the best window if we have one more good one in us

 

C2DD4FC6-A660-4FFF-8D61-C65859A84C06.png

Yep. Gfs has been showing some opportunities so potential is there. 
 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing wrong with 60.

Sucks up there in March…that’s supposed be prime skiing time in NNE.   Maybe 60 is ok on reggaefest weekend at the end of March if it’s sunny/dry with the slopes covered in feet of snow. 
 

NNE has been pretty unlucky the past couple Marches and this one isn’t starting good either. I would’ve figured they’d do well with the look the past week and upcoming week but it hasn’t really happened. Phin’s area is probably due for one of those 50-60 inch months in March. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sucks up there in March…that’s supposed be prime skiing time in NNE.   Maybe 60 is ok on reggaefest weekend at the end of March if it’s sunny/dry with the slopes covered in feet of snow. 
 

NNE has been pretty unlucky the past couple Marches and this one isn’t starting good either. I would’ve figured they’d do well with the look the past week and upcoming week but it hasn’t really happened. Phin’s area is probably due for one of those 50-60 inch months in March. 

I think he overstated though. 50s at the end of the day, sporadic rain then multiple opportunities for snow especially at ski areas. The upcoming period is prime March for them. It will be perfect for spring skiing end of March and April 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think he overstated though. 60 at the end of the day, sporadic rain then multiple opportunities for snow especially at ski areas. The upcoming period is prime March for them. It will be perfect for spring skiing end of March and April 

We’ll see. Right now there’s no threats for NNE and the 3/12 system looks cutter-ish. Can still change though. A couple high-QPF snowers for NNE mid-month would really help. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sucks up there in March…that’s supposed be prime skiing time in NNE.   Maybe 60 is ok on reggaefest weekend at the end of March if it’s sunny/dry with the slopes covered in feet of snow. 
 

NNE has been pretty unlucky the past couple Marches and this one isn’t starting good either. I would’ve figured they’d do well with the look the past week and upcoming week but it hasn’t really happened. Phin’s area is probably due for one of those 50-60 inch months in March. 

Yeah true. Even here last couple March’s have sucked. We’ll see what happens.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see. Right now there’s no threats for NNE and the 3/12 system looks cutter-ish. Can still change though. A couple high-QPF snowers for NNE mid-month would really help. 

Some just see what they want to see.

Nothing is pointing to a perfect or great spring right now. Groomed manmade stuff will be available, of course. Will need some solid base building events for anything beyond that.

The fluff that NNE received over the last week will be decimated by these upcoming rainers. It's not man-snow by any stretch.

There is no way to sugarcoat warm temps and rain for three days straight followed by air that isn't cold at all.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true. Even here last couple March’s have sucked. We’ll see what happens.

We had some really good Marches since the big 2013 March….2017, 2018, and 2019 were all big (2014 in NNE was huge…we got boned down here except for the Cape peeps in the 3/26/14 blizzard and 2015 was big on the south coast)

I guess we were due for a couple March clunkers in a row. Hopefully this one can start producing. 

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had some really good Marches since the big 2013 March….2017, 2018, and 2019 were all big (2014 in NNE was huge…we got boned down here except for the Cape peeps in the 3/26/14 blizzard and 2015 was big on the south coast)

I guess we were due for a couple March clunkers in a row. Hopefully this one can start producing. 

Yeah we’ve had some big March storms… 2017 and 2018 I think both had like 40”+ systems for the ski areas when combining synoptic and upslope.

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had some really good Marches since the big 2013 March….2017, 2018, and 2019 were all big (2014 in NNE was huge…we got boned down here except for the Cape peeps in the 3/26/14 blizzard and 2015 was big on the south coast)

I guess we were due for a couple March clunkers in a row. Hopefully this one can start producing. 

I think it was '18 (maybe '19) that nailed my spot good. Almost a jack zone.

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Ugh...seeing everything through a neg-head lens.  

I hate the pal sun under milk sky days in the 30s with corn snow on the ground you get at this time of year.   It just is too uninspired, nor comfortable. 

I don't think this warm up Tomorrow and Monday is all that great either, not if leaning against 30 to 40 mph wind gusts ... Even if it's 60 that's going to be A-nnoying.  

One little interesting aspect, the LI drops to -2 regionally on Monday.

 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Some just see what they want to see.

Nothing is pointing to a perfect or great spring right now. Groomed manmade stuff will be available, of course. Will need some solid base building events for anything beyond that.

The fluff that NNE received over the last week will be decimated by these upcoming rainers. It's not man-snow by any stretch.

There is no way to sugarcoat warm temps and rain for three days straight followed by air that isn't cold at all.

Meh you don't ski the woods anyways. The groomers will be fine and I fully expect ski areas to rack it up after this thaw. That's my opinion and has zero to do with what I want to see. You doubted me last week then got 20 or so. I will get back to you March 21st and see how the skiing is.

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