CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Too bad we couldn't lock in the GGEM....like 2 feet of snow next weekend from 2 systems. What a clown model that is. I need to see this. I've thrown that model out ad the Ukie with the rest of my beer bottles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have differing versions of doing well. 12" with a max depth of 10" in a storm like that makes me want to vomit bile.....but I get it. I have to think it evens out....I don't have a period on record during which this area endured five consecutive clunkers. There is a reasonwhy I average what I do. I think given your record there, 12" probably was triggering. I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 no words with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 I'm pretty sick of this pattern we are in. Give me warmth or give me snow, and not this purgartorial bs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have differing versions of doing well. 12" with a max depth of 10" in a storm like that makes me want to vomit bile.....but I get it. I have to think it evens out....I don't have a period on record during which this area endured five consecutive clunkers. There is a reason why I average what I do. First time for everything....ORH hadn't seen even 3 consecutive winters without a 10"+ storm on record from 1892-1988....then with perfect precision after I move back to ORH from Texas as a little kid, we get not only 3 in a row, but FOUR in a row without a 10"+ storm. Maybe you get that in Methuen after moving there like I did with ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think given your record there, 12" probably was triggering. I get it. Even Boxing day I though was more impressive...that max drift I measured on 1/29 was like 14". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: First time for everything....ORH hadn't seen even 3 consecutive winters without a 10"+ storm on record from 1892-1988....then with perfect precision after I move back to ORH from Texas as a little kid, we get not only 3 in a row, but FOUR in a row without a 10"+ storm. Maybe you get that in Methuen after moving there like I did with ORH. And maybe I see a 4'er.....if we are entertaining the "first for everything" notion. At some point, it has to snap back, like ORH did. But I think the consecutive clunker total season record is tougher to achieve than the 10" storm observation...that is just more about unfortunate snowfall distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 They'll be a string of 495 winters soon enough. Can't believe I have to say this at my own peril. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: no words with that solution. That is the precise turn of events we are due for as far areas impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the precise turn of events we are due for as far areas impacted. I'll take scraps even if it pounds you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Too bad we couldn't lock in the GGEM....like 2 feet of snow next weekend from 2 systems. What a clown model that is. Looks like 3 systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll be a string of 495 winters soon enough. Can't believe I have to say this at my own peril. LOL. 2000-2001 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 2000-2001 incoming I could totally see a 1986-1987 type season next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could totally see a 1986-1987 type season next year. That was another big interior season....coast struggled (except the Cape got a private blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Too bad we couldn't lock in the GGEM....like 2 feet of snow next weekend from 2 systems. What a clown model that is. Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter. I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex. It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ... anyway, I think the GFS is too fast. Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro. They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion). But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli... The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really. The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles... Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours. It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was another big interior season....coast struggled (except the Cape got a private blizzard) Hyrbid, moderate el nino following consecutive cool ENSO during white snake reign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter. I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex. It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ... anyway, I think the GFS is too fast. Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro. They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion). But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli... The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really. The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles... Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours. It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows. I really need the GFS or GEM to be right....the EURO is just miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was another big interior season....coast struggled (except the Cape got a private blizzard) I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old: "L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort." This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC 'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old: "L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort." This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC 'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis. I remember it, sharp cutoff so I got bupkus, I remember watching it on the news, I think it was one of the Shelby Scott storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I remember it, sharp cutoff so I got bupkus, I remember watching it on the news, I think it was one of the Shelby Scott storms. Holy ****. Look at how much juice this had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Holy ****. Look at how much juice this had. 3 and a half inches of QPF with 28 inches of snow.....man pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 3 and a half inches of QPF with 28 inches of snow.....man pack. That would have been triggering here. It's funny the stereotypes for winter I had back then. It was either a "Cape Cod winter" or "interior winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3 and a half inches of QPF with 28 inches of snow.....man pack. That's April 1997. We are due for one of those high QPFers.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 The Cape got a few good ones in the 1980s....my PTSD storm in Feb 1989 smoked them too. They had over a foot in the Dec '82 storm too (the famous snow plow game at Foxborough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll be a string of 495 winters soon enough. Can't believe I have to say this at my own peril. LOL. Inside of 495 or outside of 495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Just now, Cold Miser said: Inside of 495 or outside of 495? 495 N&W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 495 N&W. Yeah. They are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really need the GFS or GEM to be right....the EURO is just miderable. ... it always is with that f'n model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 3 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old: "L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort." This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC 'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis. I probably read that in real time as I gazed at my burgeoning orange tree in my yard while vomiting my coffee..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I probably read that in real time as I gazed at my burgeoning orange tree in my yard while vomiting my coffee..... I think it missed where you are or were before you moved, if this is the one I'm thinking of Dick Albert predicted 15-20 with blizzard condition for most of Mass, Natalie asked him if it could slide out to sea and he said NO. It ended up further south and East and mainly got the cape and there was a sharp cutoff, I don't remember where the cutoff ended up but it was mainly a Cape storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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