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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you can shift that entire pattern 500 miles east, could be interesting. 

really ... it's been a problem all season. The entire dial of the hemisphere's been slipping back into that base-state where the ridge in western N/A is really more lapsing into the east Pacific ...sort of a west-based +PNA,  or east-based -PNA, which ever way one chooses to identify it. 

But it's stressed systems ejected E, during the "perceived +PNA"  episode, because the flow is caused to split coming down the Rockies, with some mechanics meandering through the SW - not being entirely sure it will reunite with the more N branch as it tunnels east through the Lakes.  The blizzard mid season was about as close to reconnection/phase as we've gotten.  Usually... there's been more destructive interference however.  

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mm... the 18z run is clearly being exerted by seasonal change there.    The run is having difficulty sustaining a cold look, despite the -EPO/.. loading in the D6-12 range. There are three cold inserts that are brief ( < 36 hours), that roll-out synoptically, replaced with warm bulges to almost 40 N.  

Not sure it's right - in fact, any 18z GFS run on an island is low confidence to put it nicely... However ... recent springs over the last 10 years tell you not to doubt a warm bulge just the same.  And, at some point we will seasonally flash over the hemisphere with dullard the gradients.  I thought that would be on the other side of the EPO...?    This run seems to just be an oscillatory look - event reduces the need for a correction event at the Ides. 

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4 year anny of one of the most damaging nor’easters we’ve seen in recent times. It didn’t have much snow in New England,  it buried the Catskills.  However it had some of the most intense winds I’ve seen, and really tore into SE MA, especially Plymouth county. Many homes raised and rebuilt after the no name storm had damage for the first time. Power out for days. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

4 year anny of one of the most damaging nor’easters we’ve seen in recent times. It didn’t have much snow in New England,  it buried the Catskills.  However it had some of the most intense winds I’ve seen, and really tore into SE MA, especially Plymouth county. Many homes raised and rebuilt after the no name storm had damage for the first time. Power out for days. 

Yes that was the impetus for me to take down the 7 trees in my yard after a branch punctured my roof. Great storm

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