March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS might be interesting for 3/10

I suspect we're seeing the early formulation of an Ides bomb my self... - give or take a day or two.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly possible. That 10-20ish window is it so somewhere in that timeframe we hope for something.

 

Although EPS tries for a little +PNA and ridging poking into Greenland towards the end. 

Well if there’s a way for that window to pork us…it’ll find it for sure. That’s what this winter does well. So  I’m ready for it(the cutter) to happen, and I have zero expectations. 

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter.

Did you give up using the term 'blizzard' for lent?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Did you give up using the term 'blizzard' for lent?

C’mon, don’t encourage him. It was nice seeing a post or two without the words “huge blizzard.”

[George001]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Did you give up using the term 'blizzard' for lent?

I need to see a few more favorable changes  in the pattern before I start talking blizzards, right now the western ridge axis is west of ideal, so an inland runner is possible. However there are signs of weak North Atlantic blocking starting to form, which could turn it into a Miller B. If we see the blocking strengthen on the guidance, then I’m all in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well if there’s a way for that window to pork us…it’ll find it for sure. That’s what this winter does well. So  I’m ready for it(the cutter) to happen, and I have zero expectations. 

LOL You were so innocent and unassuming last fall into December....always ready with the white pompoms. My, how you have come of age this season lol

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL You were so innocent and unassuming last fall into December....always ready with the white pompoms. My, how you have come of age this season lol

Lol, that’s what repeated porking does to a guy.  Yes, I was optimistic early on, but the tenor became set and it’s continued on up until this current day.  I’m ready for the final porking around the 12-20 or so. 

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles look like a cutter during that 10-12 period.

Yeah I don't really like that storm very much for winter wx...could change, but it seems too early in the pattern shift for a good snow event. Our window of potential is more between 3/12-3/20 IMHO....prob centered in the 3/13-3/17 time range.

[Hazey]

That sneaky s/w that gave dryslot the surprise totals is crushing us here in Halifax. Very heavy snow falling. Easily 6” down and more to come. Big time overperformer. Forecast was for 4” lol.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

That sneaky s/w that gave dryslot the surprise totals is crushing us here in Halifax. Very heavy snow falling. Easily 6” down and more to come. Big time overperformer. Forecast was for 4” lol.


#NovaScotiaStrong

I was hoping you'd pop in, looks like you were getting it good, what do you think for a final 8-10?

[Hazey]

I was hoping you'd pop in, looks like you were getting it good, what do you think for a final 8-10?

I’m think 10 might be attainable. We are in the heaviest of the snow and it’s adding up quick. Took a snap out the window


#NovaScotiaStrong

[ineedsnow]

wow what a monster storm on the Euro gets down to 940mb in Quebec

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

That sneaky s/w that gave dryslot the surprise totals is crushing us here in Halifax. Very heavy snow falling. Easily 6” down and more to come. Big time overperformer. Forecast was for 4” lol.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Little critter that bites? 

although that looks a little more than innocuous on satellite -  ..actually, it looks like it's in a RI

[ineedsnow]

actually pivotal  goes down to 939mb

[ineedsnow]

Euro sinking south with the early week storm 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro sinking south with the early week storm 

Don’t do It.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro sinking south with the early week storm 

Euro sinking south while your weenie slinks due north

[George001]

Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro, this threat looks interesting. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro, this threat looks interesting. 

If you can shift that entire pattern 500 miles east, could be interesting. 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you can shift that entire pattern 500 miles east, could be interesting. 

This far out that’s doable, also you if the low deepens as much as the Euro says it will we don’t need a perfect track. The storm will create its own cold air, and the rain snow line would crash south. It can snow east of the low.

[George001]

Also despite the surface trending worse from 0z, the upper levels trended better, there was hardly any blocking at 0z. We need that to continue to get the storm to redevelop farther south.

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL You were so innocent and unassuming last fall into December....always ready with the white pompoms. My, how you have come of age this season lol

It will wear down the strongest of men

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

I’m think 10 might be attainable. We are in the heaviest of the snow and it’s adding up quick. Took a snap out the window


#NovaScotiaStrong

That band that's just to your west looks insane

[NW_of_GYX]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro sinking south with the early week storm 

And GFS went north. You know how this will end up....70 pages for a whole bunch of disappointed weenies. 

[weatherwiz]

I don't have and don't know is there is meteorological evidence to back this up, but I would have to say March is the toughest month to forecast for the medium-to-long range (I suppose you can throw one of the fall months into this). But with March you are fighting the seasonal transition, probably starting to see wavelengths shorten, you're introducing the potential for a greater degree of convection, and obviously big changes are occurring within the higher latitudes relating to increased sunlight, jet stream winds, and changes to both the TPV and SPV. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

And GFS went north. You know how this will end up....70 pages for a whole bunch of disappointed weenies. 

18z GFS way south now....lol.

 

[PhineasC]

Sweet, a rainer and then a whiff to the south. That's more like this winter.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Sweet, a rainer and then a whiff to the south. That's more like this winter.

You seriously still whining 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You seriously still whining 

Don't like the posts, don't read them. It's very simple.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS way south now....lol.

 

How far south? Lol.