mahk_webstah Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Models are hitting CNE/NNE with a mix to snow early next week. and looks like we get snow and ice to rain this weekend before the warmup. might be back to deep winter by tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Remember all of the hype and hysteria for early March Remember all of the hype around the March warmth a couple of weeks ago? Guidance has been pretty unstable. My original March forecast was pretty hyped, but that was issued four months ago and I have long since admitted its going to be wrong. I sill think it can be a snowy March if we capitalize on the mid month window, but it could easily suck if we don't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember all of the hype around the March warmth a couple of weeks ago? Guidance has been pretty unstable. My original forecast was pretty hyped, but that was issued four months ago and I have long since admitted its going to be wrong. I sill think it can be a snowy March if we capitalize on the mid month window, but it could easily suck if we don't. Oh yeah the tulip tweets in early February about winter being over. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh yeah the tulip tweets in early February about winter being over. LOL. I mean, the month still doesn't look like a raging inferno....its just not a great snow pattern, save for potentially a short window around mid month. Second half will likely be biased warmer, but this isn't March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: These clippers blow up just in time for here over the years, Its been quite a few years since we've had them but in the past we ended up with some decent over performers like this one did, But i was totally caught off guard as well as NWS and three other Mets from NBC,CBS and ABC that i emailed this morning ha ha. Missed the good band here but 1.5" hit the forecast bullseye - no complaints. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh yeah the tulip tweets in early February about winter being over. LOL. Yeah I remember the torch March talk a couple weeks back. This early March cold period is actually verifying pretty nicely, but we couldn't get anything to amplify into the cold.... We'll see if the reload mid-month bears fruit. Almost reminds me a little of how Mar 2007 unfolded. We started the month brutally cold (colder than this outbreak....it was breaking records). Then we had a big relaxation between the 10th and 15th or so. I even remember being near 70F a couple days before the big 3/16-17/07 storm. Then we went cold again for the storm and up until the final week when we torched again. We snuck in another small event on 3/24 before it torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember all of the hype around the March warmth a couple of weeks ago? Guidance has been pretty unstable. My original March forecast was pretty hyped, but that was issued four months ago and I have long since admitted its going to be wrong. I sill think it can be a snowy March if we capitalize on the mid month window, but it could easily suck if we don't. Nice post. He’s always pushing his agenda. Way to shut him down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: lol I gave up on pics everytime I take one it looks like a polaroid picture from the 80's Well if you’d get an iPhone instead of flip phone, that would be a start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I remember the torch March talk a couple weeks back. This early March cold period is actually verifying pretty nicely, but we couldn't get anything to amplify into the cold.... We'll see if the reload mid-month bears fruit. Almost reminds me a little of how Mar 2007 unfolded. We started the month brutally cold (colder than this outbreak....it was breaking records). Then we had a big relaxation between the 10th and 15th or so. I even remember being near 70F a couple days before the big 3/16-17/07 storm. Then we went cold again for the storm and up until the final week when we torched again. We snuck in another small event on 3/24 before it torched. Funny you mentioned 2006-2007....I mentioned a week or two ago that I just passed that season by a couple of inches snowfallwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nice post. He’s always pushing his agenda. Way to shut him down. I am more concerned with keeping it real, than shutting anyone down per se...guys like him, forky and snowman21 do a good job of keeping everyone in check because that is needed quite often, as much as people hate it, but it goes both ways. The warmer idea has panned out, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember all of the hype around the March warmth a couple of weeks ago? Guidance has been pretty unstable. My original March forecast was pretty hyped, but that was issued four months ago and I have long since admitted its going to be wrong. I sill think it can be a snowy March if we capitalize on the mid month window, but it could easily suck if we don't. I don't remember any torch talk, actually. Certainly not from me. My only argument was that deep winter was long over (which it was and is) Not sure why you are talking about your forecast, it was the furthest thing from my mind. In fact I have no idea what your thoughts were weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I have found that by pimping LR weeklies a bit too much, folks end up violently disappointed more often than not. That could also apply to torchy looks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Being a warm troll here is the easiest job. If it turns out warm, you look smart. If it turns out cold and snowy, people are too busy enjoying that to bump your bad calls. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I have found that by pimping LR weeklies a bit too much, folks end up violently disappointed more often than not. That could also apply to torchy looks as well. Yeah when they get posted I really don't even give them much thought. The d10-15 EPS is about as far as I go with worrying about the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 What a furnace coming Sunday and Monday. Hopefully with some sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I don't remember any torch talk, actually. Certainly not from me. My only argument was that deep winter was long over (which it was and is) Not sure why you are talking about your forecast, it was the furthest thing from my mind. In fact I have no idea what your thoughts were weeks ago. I was just being as transparent as possible because I'm sure at some point, I'll see a post to the effect of "weren't you gung ho on March"....maybe not necessarily from you. You have to be very careful about what you say on here these days lol The torch talk was certainly there, as was the guidance that supported it....but there could certainly be a few days of deep winter centered around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I have found that by pimping LR weeklies a bit too much, folks end up violently disappointed more often than not. That could also apply to torchy looks as well. Yea, weeklies have been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 GFS might be interesting for 3/10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS might be interesting for 3/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah when they get posted I really don't even give them much thought. The d10-15 EPS is about as far as I go with worrying about the LR. 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, weeklies have been awful. Right. And when they've got the right idea, the pattern may still not produce what you'd expect from those early looks. What we've had (and what appears to be coming) is a pretty ordinary February/ March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just 8 days to hold this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Definitely some promise from the 10th on, no doubt. For my own sanity, my shades remain shut until next week before I flip up one of the blinders and take a squinty peak at the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Right. And when they've got the right idea, the pattern may still not produce what you'd expect from those early looks. What we've had (and what appears to be coming) is a pretty ordinary February/ March. Totally with you on this....I said last week that March looked very climo like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 GFSGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Ensembles look like a cutter during that 10-12 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ensembles look like a cutter during that 10-12 period. Not the eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not the eps It's certainly possible. That 10-20ish window is it so somewhere in that timeframe we hope for something. Although EPS tries for a little +PNA and ridging poking into Greenland towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not the eps Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Remember all of the hype and hysteria for early March Hey... it snowed twice at my house this month...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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