March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. 

I’m at 45% of my yearly avg so unless Steve’s epic March call produces, the season is in big trouble being labeled as a ratter. 

[ineedsnow]

6z ICON was a good hit like the Ukie

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z ICON was a good hit like the Ukie

Well at least we have the icon…

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m at 45% of my yearly avg so unless Steve’s epic March call produces, the season is in big trouble being labeled as a ratter. 

Well, if you end up with 80% of average you consider that a ratter? To me less than 50% is a ratter.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Well, if you end up with 80% of average you consider that a ratter? To me less than 50% is a ratter.

There are more tangeable factors than just % of snowfall but no, 80% wouldn’t be a ratter. But if we hit 65% with just a few more penny events, I’ll give the rat a consideration given everything else that occurred. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Honestly rather just get on to spring activities and yard work at this point. Nothing worse than useless cold in March, unless we get some biggies in March, I really root for a good Morch. 
 

Unless we get a good March, that’s 3 out of 4 well below average winters in the western half of CT.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I like to ski in March at my local hill.  Mud isn’t fun to ski on.  

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There are more tangeable factors than just % of snowfall but no, 80% wouldn’t be a ratter. But if we hit 65% with just a few more penny events, I’ll give the rat a consideration given everything else that occurred. 

Agree with this. 

Im at 62% of normal…need a decent hit to bring the grade up for sure. It’s been a frustrating winter for us for the most part. 

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Well, if you end up with 80% of average you consider that a ratter? To me less than 50% is a ratter.

I think you need to use standard deviation to really determine ratter status. Some places hardly ever get under 50% of their average. ORH hasn’t had a winter below 50% of their average since 1999-2000 when they had 30.2”.
 

But years like 2001-2002, 2011-2012, and 2015-2016 all had in the 40s and I’d consider them ratters. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Honestly rather just get on to spring activities and yard work at this point. Nothing worse than useless cold in March, unless we get some biggies in March, I really root for a good Morch. 
 

Unless we get a good March, that’s 3 out of 4 well below average winters in the western half of CT.

I did well last year…two biggies(December and February), and the Super Bowl snow was fast and furious with close to 9” last Feb.  But unless it’s(March) way above average which is rare too, so I like to see at least the first 2/3 of March be wintry. After that bring some nice weather, but that usually doesn’t happen either, at least not anything consistent lol.  I’m Hoping we can score something over the next few weeks. 

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Well, if you end up with 80% of average you consider that a ratter? To me less than 50% is a ratter.

Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!  There is so much focus on "average".  All averages are normal, but normal does not mean "average" by any stretch.  Outside of few instances--baseball,e.g.--it tells you very little all by itself. 

That's why we look at the ensemble spread so closely--the 'avergage"/"mean' doesn't really tell us too much.

At minimum, I would look at +1/-1 SD as "normal".

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you need to use standard deviation to really determine ratter status. Some places hardly ever get under 50% of their average. ORH hasn’t had a winter below 50% of their average since 1999-2000 when they had 30.2”.
 

But years like 2001-2002, 2011-2012, and 2015-2016 all had in the 40s and I’d consider them ratters. 

 

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!  There is so much focus on "average".  All averages are normal, but normal does not mean "average" by any stretch.  Outside of few instances--baseball,e.g.--it tells you very little all by itself. 

That's why we look at the ensemble spread so closely--the 'avergage"/"mean' doesn't really tell us too much.

At minimum, I would look at +1/-1 SD as "normal".

 

Statisticians of the world unite.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you need to use standard deviation to really determine ratter status. Some places hardly ever get under 50% of their average. ORH hasn’t had a winter below 50% of their average since 1999-2000 when they had 30.2”.
 

But years like 2001-2002, 2011-2012, and 2015-2016 all had in the 40s and I’d consider them ratters. 

I’m a lil confused by your post Will. If Worcester hadn’t had a winter below 50% since 99-2000, then how come those other years you listed in the 40’s are after 99-2000? 

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m a lil confused by your post Will. If Worcester hadn’t had a winter below 50% since 99-2000, then how come those other years you listed in the 40’s are after 99-2000? 

Estimating ORH's annual being 70", 50% would be 35.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Estimating ORH's annual being 70", 50% would be 35.

I think he gets that . Will was just Saying bc it’s so hard for Worcester to get less than 50%, the bar for a ratter is a bit higher . Like 60%

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Estimating ORH's annual being 70", 50% would be 35.

 But he said below 50% since 99-2000, and then he listed 3 winters that were “after” that 99-2000 season, that’s what confused me.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I did well last year…two biggies(December and February), and the Super Bowl snow was fast and furious with close to 9” last Feb.  But unless it’s(March) way above average which is rare too, so I like to see at least the first 2/3 of March be wintry. After that bring some nice weather, but that usually doesn’t happen either, at least not anything consistent lol.  I’m Hoping we can score something over the next few weeks. 

Ya last year was the only good year almost 40 in February alone here.

[EastonSN+]

57 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Honestly rather just get on to spring activities and yard work at this point. Nothing worse than useless cold in March, unless we get some biggies in March, I really root for a good Morch. 
 

Unless we get a good March, that’s 3 out of 4 well below average winters in the western half of CT.

I am still holding out hope to reach average, however will need 11.

Ideally we get a biggie and torch, however more likely if I reach out will be from messy overrunning.

Thought the ensembles looked good but I could be miss interpreting them.

[Typhoon Tip]

Maybe helps qualify the experience ... maybe not?  But this winter has under performed relative to episodic patterns borne events with higher ceiling potential, that verified less.

When that happens ... I suspect that can magnify a person's negative take things.  For fun metaphor ... it's like Lucy, Charlie Browning the winter enthusiasts satisfaction.  

You know, the author of Charlie Brown was just finding a Walt Disney way to exposing the child to the the life lesson of the prick tease bitch

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe helps qualify the experience ... maybe not?  But this winter has under performed relative to episodic patterns borne events with higher ceiling potential, that verified less.

When that happens ... I suspect that can magnify a person's negative take things.  For fun metaphor ... it's like Lucy, Charlie Browning the winter enthusiasts satisfaction.  

You know, the author of Charlie Brown was just finding a Walt Disney way to exposing the child to the the life lesson of the prick tease bitch

Lol, yup.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya last year was the only good year almost 40 in February alone here.

The first 20days or so of Feb21 was awesome. Mundane winter otherwise though. The big Dec event porked us.

The good piece this winter had going for it was the relatively long snowpack during a cold Jan. The over-performer early in the month was nice beforehand so grading month would be:

Dec: 20

Jan: 75

Feb: 67

Mar: TBD

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 But he said below 50% since 99-2000, and then he listed 3 winters that were “after” that 99-2000 season, that’s what confused me.  

“40s” referred to seasonal total. Not percent of normal. A low 40s total in ORH is like 60% of average. 

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Honestly rather just get on to spring activities and yard work at this point. Nothing worse than useless cold in March, unless we get some biggies in March, I really root for a good Morch. 
 

Unless we get a good March, that’s 3 out of 4 well below average winters in the western half of CT.

I'm with you here, unless March delivers epicocity, get on with spring, I know the chickens certainly want spring to come, first year with them, lost one and had to give the rooster away, but they're producing all winter, ready for growing now too...

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

“40s” referred to seasonal total. Not percent of normal. A low 40s total in ORH is like 60% of average. 

Ok that makes sense..thanks. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The first 20days or so of Feb21 was awesome. Mundane winter otherwise though. The big Dec event porked us.

The good piece this winter had going for it was the relatively long snowpack during a cold Jan. The over-performer early in the month was nice beforehand so grading month would be:

Dec: 20

Jan: 75

Feb: 67

Mar: TBD

You didn’t do well in the Dec 20 event? That was 14+inches here.  I didn’t realize that Luke. 

[78Blizzard]

CMC, albeit weaker, has joined the Ukie on the Wed night clipper event.  It now has the low going underneath us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You didn’t do well in the Dec 20 event? That was 14+inches here.  I didn’t realize that Luke. 

For some reason I remember being underwhelmed because of the dryslot but also because once again we were close to something bigger but missed, yet again. So I thought it was worse then it was, I just checked my records on Kevin’s site and recorded 12.5”. Not bad. 

[moneypitmike]

Was doing some quick of sun angle now vs October.  Realized that in just 7  months, we'll be spending the weekends blowing leaves, watching football and looking for signs of a frost.  And so the world turns.....

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree with this. 

Im at 62% of normal…need a decent hit to bring the grade up for sure. It’s been a frustrating winter for us for the most part. 

Is 98% good? Asking for a friend  lol

[MJO812]

Clipper is back for SNE