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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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Managed 2.7" without the visibility ever getting worse than 1 1/4SM last night. 

Also I really hate missing the snow forecast by that much. I had forecast 1.1" for PWM yesterday. Sure the difference is just over an inch, but something about double what I forecast always hurts. 

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Managed 2.7" without the visibility ever getting worse than 1 1/4SM last night. 

Also I really hate missing the snow forecast by that much. I had forecast 1.1" for PWM yesterday. Sure the difference is just over an inch, but something about double what I forecast always hurts. 

no shame in getting an over performer. 1.25" last night.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just busting…lol.

 

But they do differ from the on hour runs unfortunately more often than not. Don’t know why but they do. 
 

How’s the 10th on looking? 

Probably more mid month. Might be a cutter risk there 10-12. I'm kind of checking out. If there is nothing imminent it's not worth getting excited. You walk out now it's mild....could wear a t shirt. Just doesn't have the same feel or excitement it did even a month ago. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably more mid month. Might be a cutter risk there 10-12. I'm kind of checking out. If there is nothing imminent it's not worth getting excited. You walk out now it's mild....could wear a t shirt. Just doesn't have the same feel or excitement it did even a month ago. 

Same, which is why the MLB news was especially brutal. I wanted to immerse myself in the draft.

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heh ... no one was really paying much attention to the synoptics leading last night's "event" - if we want to distinguish it with that merit. 

Not to toot horns but I did know that was all possible.   In fact ...between 06z and 12z Thurs looks similar.  Affairs this week with repeating frontal passages... And also the loss of the front side mix ordeal over the weekend... blah blah. 

It's a 'penny pattern.'    C-3's from butterflies in the flow.

In theory ...there is a bigger event mid month.   The -EPO burst still appears on track.   Both the Euro and the GFS operational version carry the climate EPO cutter right on cue - albeit ...day 10 isn't exactly hugely deterministic lol.  

There are some aspects to me... 

1 ...the fast nature of the flow may tend to extended the R-wave climatology for -EPO onset more E.  Example, the blizzard back mid season was actually taking place in a stretched field.  The western ridge was actually west of typology.

2 ...the -EPO may collapse into and enforce a rise of the PNA.   It doesn't have to...  but that's not an unusual evolution.   The erstwhile -EPO loads cold.  The rising in the PNA ... viola.   

3 ...whether that happens more or less coherently, that is quite the cold anomaly settling into mid Canada out there D7-12.  It's hard to believe that won't play some kind of factor at least down to ORD-BOS latitudes, some how, some way.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is cold lurking, blah, blah, but I think odds are against anything major.

That's no that Ray we have come to know! Yes on MLB...sucks

Weather, 24 hrs ago you seemed more "upbeat", cold will be lurking, this week sucks, however, I still have faith of 2 more plowable storms, for me I'm talking 3"+, however, the end is near, after April 5th, not interested..

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3 minutes ago, 512high said:

That's no that Ray we have come to know! Yes on MLB...sucks

Weather, 24 hrs ago you seemed more "upbeat", cold will be lurking, this week sucks, however, I still have faith of 2 more plowable storms, for me I'm talking 3"+, however, the end is near, after April 5th, not interested..

I said pretty much the same thing 24 hours ago....I mean, it would be poetic justice to have an interior bomb, but pattern is not great, so odds are against it... bowling ball and fortuitous PNA spike not withstanding. There are certainly worse patterns for winter weather prospects, but at this point, I am so drained by the season that it will take something substantial that is virtually imminent to evoke much emotion from me.

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