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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Euro looks decent for NNE for the weekend/early week mess. A net gain for sure. 

You think so?  I didn’t get that decent vibe.

Looked more like run if the mill -SN/-IP, freezing rain/drizzle then mild showers.  Strong south flow rips through the warm sector for about 12 hours.

98BBE08D-AEF9-4AC9-B4DB-29AB04E43E0A.thumb.png.a9965ac39ae343a8f4ba666b1076bbda.png

A251EA3A-B91E-494D-B69D-7487D9EC8E99.thumb.png.c33c86808b29d269e44658a90cf0bab5.png
 

925mb torches hard when that flow goes south.

CD0FE644-3E9D-477A-9930-DF96F366E98B.thumb.png.e697dd388577006ef2f6daf0dfd18217.png

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I am not a big fan of severe yet it’s the one thing that W MA does pretty well with.  Once you’ve watched your life flash before your eyes you’re not really looking for a repeat.

You aren't kidding

I don't ever want to hear that kind of thunder or have it be pitch black at 4 pm in early June..

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You think so?  I didn’t get that decent vibe.

Looked more like run if the mill -SN/-IP, freezing rain/drizzle then mild showers.  Strong south flow rips through the warm sector for about 12 hours.

98BBE08D-AEF9-4AC9-B4DB-29AB04E43E0A.thumb.png.a9965ac39ae343a8f4ba666b1076bbda.png

A251EA3A-B91E-494D-B69D-7487D9EC8E99.thumb.png.c33c86808b29d269e44658a90cf0bab5.png
 

925mb torches hard when that flow goes south.

CD0FE644-3E9D-477A-9930-DF96F366E98B.thumb.png.e697dd388577006ef2f6daf0dfd18217.png

He’ll be sipping Mai Tais again.

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I didn’t realize Significant Tornadoes was updated to 2019 and is now in two volumes supposedly?  I can’t find any record of it being re released however?

I bought volume 1 several months back and they accidentally shipped me volume 2. I could have also bought volume 2 but I shipped it back. I was planning on getting volume 2 at some point soon. 

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You think so?  I didn’t get that decent vibe.

Looked more like run if the mill -SN/-IP, freezing rain/drizzle then mild showers.  Strong south flow rips through the warm sector for about 12 hours.

98BBE08D-AEF9-4AC9-B4DB-29AB04E43E0A.thumb.png.a9965ac39ae343a8f4ba666b1076bbda.png

A251EA3A-B91E-494D-B69D-7487D9EC8E99.thumb.png.c33c86808b29d269e44658a90cf0bab5.png
 

925mb torches hard when that flow goes south.

CD0FE644-3E9D-477A-9930-DF96F366E98B.thumb.png.e697dd388577006ef2f6daf0dfd18217.png

It looked drier to me than the prior two cutters and then appeared to have a follow up wave that went south. Maybe optimism goggles on my part. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It looked drier to me than the prior two cutters and then appeared to have a follow up wave that went south. Maybe optimism goggles on my part. 

Ah for sure, no deep tropical stream. No joke, it is a type of season when just hitting 50F is a win without 1-2” of rainfall.

Most NNE snowpack is low water content so it won’t put up a fight like a pack of 4-6” of water.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I’ve given up on snowpack this season. The pack I have now is mostly fake snow type consistency which will be easily obliterated. Just hoping to book end the shit sandwich with 6-8. 

I’m just kidding. I’d close the shades until later next week. You’ve got winter left for sure.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like the blocking goes nuclear after the 9th or 10th though. I think we'll have chances mid-month...but I agree. If we could have kept this weekend south and added to the snow pack, it would have added to the wintry appeal...but when you are dealing with a White Snake winter, you take what you can get. Deal with the meltouts.

Oh boy more big blocking….it killed us in December(I know the combo of the -PNA was most likely the culprit at that time), does it look like we may have some +PNA to work with along with this blocking this time around? 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy more big blocking….it killed us in December(I know the combo of the -PNA was most likely the culprit at that time), does it look like we may have some +PNA to work with along with this blocking this time around? 

The atl is overrated anyway. Yea it can help but I’d rather have a pac driven pattern. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The atl is overrated anyway. Yea it can help but I’d rather have a pac driven pattern. 

I agree, if the NAO is raging positive, it’s not ideal but it can work (like 2014-2015). If there is a trough out west it is a lot harder to get big storms. 

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Same thing with severe weather. With tornadohistoryproject gone bye-bye there really is no place to quickly access tornado data...or to break it down as easily as you could on tornadohistoryproject...that place was a bible. You can download an Excel File from the SPC site but I've gone through it and there are even inconsistencies on there and you gotta be super careful with how you use it b/c I'm not sure how it works with multi-state tornadoes and it even has the same tornadoes listed multiple times and there's even numbers missing...it's ridiculous. 

I feel your pain man, that's why a few years ago I dug deep to find records from the closest station to me, and had to go month to month from 1932 onward to collect seasonal snow totals, now I want to elaborate on that, with rain, and LE of the snow, and I had to put in an order for the dataset, but it never opens, just get an error... this was the NCEI database, I just gave up and am glad I did what I did so I have some historical record for the area, part of my job is to reduce and organize data from qual testing and it's really not that difficult to maintain it, fact that it was once there is even more frustrating

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1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

I feel your pain man, that's why a few years ago I dug deep to find records from the closest station to me, and had to go month to month from 1932 onward to collect seasonal snow totals, now I want to elaborate on that, with rain, and LE of the snow, and I had to put in an order for the dataset, but it never opens, just get an error... this was the NCEI database, I just gave up and am glad I did what I did so I have some historical record for the area, part of my job is to reduce and organize data from qual testing and it's really not that difficult to maintain it, fact that it was once there is even more frustrating

It's frustrating beyond belief. I was going back to a notebook I made back in 2012 which I wrote down yearly snowfall data for ALB, BDL, BOS, BTV, BWI, DCA, NYC, ORF, ORH, PVD, PWM, and RIC. The links I had for these sites are no longer active. So I figured I'd go to the NRCC but the data they have there for these stations doesn't match at all for the most part from what I wrote down and data doesn't seem to go as far back For example, on the NRCC ALB only goes back to the 1930's but on the NWS page they have records back to the 1880's. BDL they only have back to like 1948 but I had it back to 1904-1905. Now I know some stations moved locations and not sure if that's why but this is ridiculous. 

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's frustrating beyond belief. I was going back to a notebook I made back in 2012 which I wrote down yearly snowfall data for ALB, BDL, BOS, BTV, BWI, DCA, NYC, ORF, ORH, PVD, PWM, and RIC. The links I had for these sites are no longer active. So I figured I'd go to the NRCC but the data they have there for these stations doesn't match at all for the most part from what I wrote down and data doesn't seem to go as far back For example, on the NRCC ALB only goes back to the 1930's but on the NWS page they have records back to the 1880's. BDL they only have back to like 1948 but I had it back to 1904-1905. Now I know some stations moved locations and not sure if that's why but this is ridiculous. 

 

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy more big blocking….it killed us in December(I know the combo of the -PNA was most likely the culprit at that time), does it look like we may have some +PNA to work with along with this blocking this time around? 

There isn’t any Atlantic blocking forecast. Just pacific. 

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6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like the blocking goes nuclear after the 9th or 10th though. I think we'll have chances mid-month...but I agree. If we could have kept this weekend south and added to the snow pack, it would have added to the wintry appeal...but when you are dealing with a White Snake winter, you take what you can get. Deal with the meltouts.

Seems like the -EPO starts to break down post the 9/10th? Peaks more the 9th/10th? Looking at EPS and GEFS

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