March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[WinterWolf]

If that look verifies for after the 10th…there will be some chances.  Doesn’t mean it snows, could get unlucky as we have most of the season,  but it definitely won’t be spring like either. 

[ORH_wxman]

The pattern might bust, but that's probably got some solid cold shots in it if that look pans out. You don't load up Canada with huge negative anomalies like that and usually escape....sometimes you do, but most of the time you will not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Could def be the type of month that doesn't appease anyone....even the @Torch Tigerand @snowman21's of the world. The weenies don't get snow or notable cold, and those guys don't get appreciable warmth. 

Class spring month in New England....everyone is in the same boat, anchor in hand ready to plunge over board.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern might bust, but that's probably got some solid cold shots in it if that look pans out. You don't load up Canada with huge negative anomalies like that and usually escape....sometimes you do, but most of the time you will not.

Yup, just as I said above you…there will be some chances if that plays out. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pattern might bust, but that's probably got some solid cold shots in it if that look pans out. You don't load up Canada with huge negative anomalies like that and usually escape....sometimes you do, but most of the time you will not.

Also, that’s why we route for something…cuz that isn’t a mild/springtime look at all. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If that look verifies for after the 10th…there will be some chances.  Doesn’t mean it snows, could get unlucky as we have most of the season,  but it definitely won’t be spring like either. 

Right...but I think I speak for both of use when I don't consider a 2-4" front ender before some sleet and rain a win, at this stage. You hope for more, but I feel like those are the more likely path to climo this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This season desperately needs a major interior job that is not entirely elevation dependent.

[dryslot]

Back to back below 0 mornings to close Feb and open March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Back to back below 0 mornings to close Feb and open March.

I hit 1 degree this AM.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, just as I said above you…there will be some chances if that plays out. 

Nobody honestly knows about snow threats at this point anyway....people might pretend they do, but when you start shortening the wavelengths in March, it becomes even harder to see storms from more than a few days out. I mostly just look to see if there is a cold source that any potential system could tap into...and that ingredient seems to be there mid-month, so to me that says a legit storm could be possible. But can't say anything beyond that. It could just be a 42F day that warms your ass in the seat of the car too.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hit 1 degree this AM.

Not looking to be warm this week either until sunday, Two shots at some light snow, Tonight and again on Wednesday night, Temps low 30's for highs and on the clear nights looks to be in the low single digits.

[CoastalWx]

The op runs past day seven are clownish, but one thing they can do is sort of dictate a story. It’s sort of worked this winter too. You see the GFS has some pretty nasty cold shots during  that time that Will pointed out. So, I do think we’ll have chances. My point was nothing looks threatening  for the next week or so.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not looking to be warm this week either until sunday, Two shots at some light snow, Tonight and again on Wednesday night, Temps low 30's for highs and on the clear nights looks to be in the low single digits.

Could be decent tomorrow. 40s and some sun. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be decent tomorrow. 40s and some sun. 

If you can have sun with low wind this time of the year, it's usually pretty nice. Even when it's cold. It's those nasty CAA windy cold shots that are the worst....that and CAD cold rain. Not looking forward to Thursday's CAA cold shot.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be decent tomorrow. 40s and some sun. 

Mid 30's here it looks like.

[Torch Tiger]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could def be the type of month that doesn't appease anyone....even the @Torch Tigerand @snowman21's of the world. The weenies don't get snow or notable cold, and those guys don't get appreciable warmth. 

Class spring month in New England....everyone is in the same boat, anchor in hand ready to plunge over board.

  I don't mind 30's and 40's and clouds in March, as long as there are a few decent days with sun mixed in too.  my main enemy is arctic cold and snow and that ship sailed long ago, we're good

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

  I don't mind 30's and 40's and clouds in March, as long as there are a few decent days with sun mixed in too.  my main enemy is arctic cold and snow and that ship sailed long ago, we're good

I think we'll probably see some snow yet....

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I love the summer, can’t wait. Should be a warm one. 

I'm presently trying to formulate a vision on that... 

I realize folks are not as interested in 'big heat'.  It can be a tedious topic for many. 

However, I think in a CC era, one that is by all scientific interpolation ...no going to end well, monitoring becomes more important.  Moreover, it is being documented, these strange what have been denoted as "synergistic" heat explosion, never before measured ...  Pacific NW last June a one example in many, occurring all over the World with increasing frequency over recent decades.  

We are entering a new paradigm.  No need to run down the list ... but obviously, multi-fasted impacts they bring when you can slow bake bread over back decks and desiccate ponds down rotting fish stench, almost every year ... no matter what leading indicators have been.  They don't seem to be very predictable, either.  Large synoptic modeling may signal heat potential, but they haven't well predicted 2012, France, Australia, the Europe ...2021 in the Pac NW.  They are almost like thermal 'rogue wave' in a storm of warmth.

 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we'll probably see some snow yet....

Ya…don’t think it’s quite done either. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...but I think I speak for both of use when I don't consider a 2-4" front ender before some sleet and rain a win, at this stage. You hope for more, but I feel like those are the more likely path to climo this month.

Agree completely. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The overnight - to me - actually looked more winter threatening ( for lack of better phrase ...), from roughly D7-15

I almost imagine that being the last 'winter pattern' attributed risk period.   Proverbial "bowling season" can happen through April, as a separate synoptic loading.  

But the off and on EPS signal got a bit more coherent to me, and it appears all guidance/cross guidance fuller cluster reference signals loading a pretty goodly cold mass into Canada.  Meanwhile, the numerical telecon spread has shown a bit of a PNA disruption emerging heading into week 2 - one that I suspect my gain momentum heading forward.

Typical EPO gestation:   -EPO heights collapse into the -PNA, forces --> +PNA switch ...takes 6 day to play out ( or so...).  But that's what happens.  Cold loads, then the PNA rises into it...  Archembault earns her Master's thesis.  This almost looks text book out there to me, and the overnight CPC PNA disruption is probably just the GEF members responding to that exertion.   

So we'll see...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The overnight - to me - actually looked more winter threatening ( for lack of better phrase ...), from roughly D7-15

I almost imagine that being the last 'winter pattern' attributed risk period.   Proverbial "bowling season" can happen through April, as a separate synoptic loading.  

But the off and on EPS signal got a bit more coherent to me, and it appears all guidance/cross guidance fuller cluster reference to really load a pretty good cold mass into Canada.  Meanwhile, the numerical telecon spread has shown a bit of a PNA disruption emerging heading into week 2 - one that I suspect my gain momentum heading forward.

Typical EPO gestation:   -EPO heights collapse into the -PNA, forces --> +PNA switch ...takes 6 day to play out ( or so...).  But that's what happens.  Cold loads, then the PNA rises into it...  Archembault earns her Master's thesis.  This almost looks text book out there to me, and the overnight CPC PNA disruption is probably just the GEF members responding to that exertion.   

So we'll see...

 

Interesting....never thought of that, but it makes sense. The timing of the PNA flexes is what I really struggled with this season, aside from the SSW no-show. I still managed to get the general idea for the most part, but def. room for improvement.

[wx2fish]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Summers are just warm now. Almost a lock. Maybe at some point we’ll actually get cold fronts like we used to. 

Last year was pretty meh until the end of July and Aug. Noone wants 57F and drizzle on the 3rd of July again. Let's go wire to wire warm this summer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Last year was pretty meh until the end of July and Aug. Noone wants 57F and drizzle on the 3rd of July again. Let's go wire to wire warm this summer. 

I do.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do.

Same! give it to me all summer

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do.

thats awesome lol.  Someone posted stats about hot summers making snowy winters more likely though.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Same! give it to me all summer

Not a beach guy I take it lol

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do.

I used to be more in that camp, but over the last 5 years I've transitioned to the dark side of heat and dews

[IowaStorm05]

In shuffling myself to a doctor's appointment this morning, I negotiated the icy conditions on the ground. Most of the parking lot is under a thick glacier of ice. It is because of that sleet storm, which set up a very dense slab of ice. This slab is extremely robust. It is going to take more than one torch for it to melt and to some extent this is probably going to be there for the rest of the winter.

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The overnight - to me - actually looked more winter threatening ( for lack of better phrase ...), from roughly D7-15

I almost imagine that being the last 'winter pattern' attributed risk period.   Proverbial "bowling season" can happen through April, as a separate synoptic loading.  

But the off and on EPS signal got a bit more coherent to me, and it appears all guidance/cross guidance fuller cluster reference signals loading a pretty goodly cold mass into Canada.  Meanwhile, the numerical telecon spread has shown a bit of a PNA disruption emerging heading into week 2 - one that I suspect my gain momentum heading forward.

Typical EPO gestation:   -EPO heights collapse into the -PNA, forces --> +PNA switch ...takes 6 day to play out ( or so...).  But that's what happens.  Cold loads, then the PNA rises into it...  Archembault earns her Master's thesis.  This almost looks text book out there to me, and the overnight CPC PNA disruption is probably just the GEF members responding to that exertion.   

So we'll see...

 

Good post…easy to read and easy to understand…very refreshing.  Oh and, also informative.