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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phil, what are you confused about? Not used to seeing those from anyone but Kev lol

lol, just being funny! Kevin seems to always post those, I just think that emoji face is a riot!

Still hoping for a few more storms, I think my avg. is around 60-65" per year , maybe off, I'm just not a summer guy, already looking forward to Fall, like Tip said more or less, you can't stop the next season from arriving, this winter will soon pass....

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

lol, just being funny! Kevin seems to always post those, I just think that emoji face is a riot!

Still hoping for a few more storms, I think my avg. is around 60-65" per year , maybe off, I'm just not a summer guy, already looking forward to Fall, like Tip said more or less, you can't stop the next season from arriving, this winter will soon pass....

Same.

I think next season has a lot going for it right out of the gate.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love the summer, can’t wait. Should be a warm one. 

You know Scott, funny you say that, "should be a warm one", your a Met , others say in Fall should be a good winter, and then crap hits the fan, things don't line up climo etc

Cant the same apply to Summer or are the dynamics different then forecasting cold and snow?

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Just now, 512high said:

You know Scott, funny you say that, "should be a warm one", your a Met , others say in Fall should be a good winter, and then crap hits the fan, things don't line up climo etc

Cant the same apply to Summer or are the dynamics different then forecasting cold and snow?

Hopefully the heat waves develop tits.

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9 minutes ago, 512high said:

You know Scott, funny you say that, "should be a warm one", your a Met , others say in Fall should be a good winter, and then crap hits the fan, things don't line up climo etc

Cant the same apply to Summer or are the dynamics different then forecasting cold and snow?

Summers are just warm now. Almost a lock. Maybe at some point we’ll actually get cold fronts like we used to. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Can't call it on snow threats yet with the way the pattern looks after 3/10. Here's the 5 day mean for 00z 3/11 to 00z 3/16...way too much cold loading into the source region.

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean.png

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean850.png

Yea, I was on auto-pilot in season check-out mode literally writing that it should be done by mid March, and then I actually looked at the EPS image from 3/15 that I had posted, and said "shit"....then rewrote the paragraph.

Honest truth-

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can't call it on snow threats yet with the way the pattern looks after 3/10. Here's the 5 day mean for 00z 3/11 to 00z 3/16...way too much cold loading into the source region.

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean.png

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean850.png

Yeah that’s still in the cards. Hopefully something comes out of it. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Summers are just warm now. Almost a lock. Maybe at some point we’ll actually get cold fronts like we used to. 

New normals though....we got rid of a lot of the cold 1980s summers when they updated the normals last year.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Awful.   

I have to mentally prepare for Kevin and his H(3) talk.  All Dews, all Day, all Season long. 

He'll go out of his way to talk about it more if you post that you don't like it....its like a 4 year old sticking his tongue out at you....only its a big one without hair.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can't call it on snow threats yet with the way the pattern looks after 3/10. Here's the 5 day mean for 00z 3/11 to 00z 3/16...way too much cold loading into the source region.

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean.png

Mar1_00zEPS360_5daymean850.png

Oy I don't like that.  Is that a ridge bridge developing across the top?  displaced pv down into the US?  I want a warm spring.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Oy I don't like that.  Is that a ridge bridge developing across the top?  displaced pv down into the US?  I want a warm spring.

That's the thing...as Scott correctly pointed out, the PV recovers very rapidly after that fraudulent split, but it remains stretched out onto out side of the globe, as it has a lot of this season. It doesn't have the look of a toasty month.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember two weeks ago when Raymie , Ginx and others creamed in jeans over how snowy and cold the first two weeks of Morch looked? You can pretty much cancel that EPS look as well. Will not happen 

What's your prediction for the 3/10-3/17 period?

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember two weeks ago when Raymie , Ginx and others creamed in jeans over how snowy and cold the first two weeks of Morch looked? You can pretty much cancel that EPS look as well. Will not happen 

Well, all I can do is comment on the data in front of me....I was also quick to point out that my PV split idea, in the legitimate sense, was a bust. If you recall, March also looked a like a complete torch two weeks ago....its been very unstable.

 

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