40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Here were my thoughts with respect to March from last November: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement. The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. This March forecast, again, is contingent upon the development of high latitude blocking, and the risk is for a warmer outcome should that not occur. or be delayed, as the European guidance hints at. Obviously the glaring error is with respect to the polar domain, as it appears as though the uptick in solar activity was enough to derail that. However, clearly the poleward Pacific ridging still holds the potential to deliver during that originally highlighted March 1-15 window. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Ray, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: Ray, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile. I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days. Eps looks really interesting. Still needs a few tweaks but this far out it’s a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Small disturbance showing on the GFS (1-2") and Euro (lower amounts offshore) for next Thurs Prob won't be anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so. Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so. Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post) Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible? The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so. Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post) Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Looking at the pattern going forward hard not to envision Boston getting over 60 for the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now. Yeah you’d prob need like a moderate storm of 6-10” and then cash in on a big dog of 12-18”+. Maybe another smaller nuisance event or two mixed in there somewhere before mid-April and there’s your 30”+ to get you to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Even the ops runs have been active in long range for our neck of the woods… along with ensembles there’s some potential there… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looking at the pattern going forward hard not to envision Boston getting over 60 for the season. The pattern could get NYC to normal for the year if it verifies. Crazy what a 200 mile difference does with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Ukie has a couple of little clippers next Wed, Thur which should whiten up the dirty snow from the plows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 is the 3rd off the table now? I'm having issues loading model data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: is the 3rd off the table now? I'm having issues loading model data GFS still has a week clipper-ish system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Euro sorta does as well, but less organized. Not that the GFS is the second coming of ‘78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 would be nice if we can get a replay of march 56, or when was it 2018?, where we had like 3 noreasters within the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 The first week of March looks normal to slightly below. Pretty tame and dry weather wise until end of the week. We'll see if the flow flattens a bit or the cutter screams North into the Great Lakes. Maybe some light accumulation for someone in SNE mid-week? In any case it will look wintery for a bit after today's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Nice hit in SNE on Ukie on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Nice hit in SNE on Ukie on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 45 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GFS says what clipper, and CMC says it goes north and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now. 36" where do you come up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: 36" where do you come up with that? My measured total on the season. 36.5" now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. I don’t see anything wrong. Next week is questionable and has been. Still looks like an overrunning look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. It's just after storm hangover / need to get a threat closer. I'd be surprised if March goes by quietly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t see anything wrong. Next week is questionable and has been. Still looks like an overrunning look. Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 10 hours ago, tavwtby said: would be nice if we can get a replay of march 56, or when was it 2018?, where we had like 3 noreasters within the month I'd go for another March 2001, 55.5" and closing with a 19" dump on 30-31 that brought the pack to 48". The big dog on 3/5-6 was only the 3rd biggest storm that month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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