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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be a great day tomorrow.

I don't know why this made me laugh - ...maybe because that "putrocity" out the window right now, limps us into conceding that today pretty much doesn't exist.   ho man -

I kinda warned of this... You know, yesterday was as toxic as it was an amazing as a high.  I guess it was one too many gin and tonics, because reality the next morning?  We may not see 75 again until mid April looking at the meaningless, no winter gain cold catastrophe that is that weirdly on-purpose piece of shit suite of model runs over night - 'how to get it as miserably cold relative to not snowing.'     Sometimes I wonder if psyches would be better off if it stayed head-jammed up ass bad weather until it really breaks for real. 

I doubt it will improve much here in the Nashoba/Merrimack Valley region of NE Mass as far as today goes. We've back doored and it appears to have at least a little real momentum.  The models were hem hawing over this boundary the last couple of days, and then backed off - which I thought was odd against climate, but also because there is unbalanced +PP up in Maine.   The NAM even backed off, and kept Logan's wind S through the overnight and this morning, which they're 43 with ENEasties - yuck.   Subtle tree sway and taut flags pointing SW here reveals this thing isn't done - my experience is that if there is any of these observable aspects in the environment at dawn, the warm air WILL FAIL to come back.  Having suffered the vagaries of this anus climate that is this time of year, for so many years ... I have never seen actual cold momentum, reverse.  

So yeah...   should be great  ....                                                                                             some other day.

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HFD 54, S wind

BOS 43, NE wind

ORH is also 45 NE wind...

There's a BD between ORH and HFD, and given to the fact that the wind is still blowing actively at the surface, inland in the cold air, it is still moving SW.   I wonder if just as the sky brightens and it's looking good for CT, that is when they also get bent over by this pos front.  Maybe maybe not...

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know why this made me laugh - ...maybe because that "putrocity" out the window right now, limps us into conceding that today pretty much doesn't exist.   ho man -

I kinda warned of this... You know, yesterday was as toxic as it was an amazing as a high.  I guess it was one too many gin and tonics, because reality the next morning?  We may not see 75 again until mid April looking at the meaningless, no winter gain cold catastrophe that is that weirdly on-purpose piece of shit suite of model runs over night - 'how to get it as miserably cold relative to not snowing.'     Sometimes I wonder if psyches would be better off if it stayed head-jammed up ass bad weather until it really breaks for real. 

I doubt it will improve much here in the Nashoba/Merrimack Valley region of NE Mass as far as today goes. We've back doored and it appears to have at least a little real momentum.  The models were hem hawing over this boundary the last couple of days, and then backed off - which I thought was odd against climate, but also because there is unbalanced +PP up in Maine.   The NAM even backed off, and kept Logan's wind S through the overnight and this morning, which they're 43 with ENEasties - yuck.   Subtle tree sway and taut flags pointing SW here reveals this thing isn't done - my experience is that if there is any of these observable aspects in the environment at dawn, the warm air WILL FAIL to come back.  Having suffered the vagaries of this anus climate that is this time of year, for so many years ... I have never seen actual cold momentum, reverse.  

So yeah...   should be great  ....                                                                                             some other day.

Yeah maybe warmest for awhile,  but even those blues at 850 translate to 60+ with good mixing this time of year. I’m cool with that. 

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17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

summer-like downpour... winter's definitely done

Keep telling yourself that…

 

I mean most everybody knows winters over, but Holy sh*t I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poster that constantly says winters over like you do?  

Bro move to Phoenix already. 

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe warmest for awhile,  but even those blues at 850 translate to 60+ with good mixing this time of year. I’m cool with that. 

I am too - not doubt. Sure.  But it also depends how deep the blue gets  ... ;)   

I mean I'm not trying to be a condescending dick with the wink there, but I'm sort of put off by shit this morning. 

CPC was selling us this momentum in the MJO stuff this week, and that it'd likely couple with the La Nina footprint , to yield at warmer anomaly over eastern N/A moving toward the later phases of the month. Frankly, what print - I find that recurring turn of phrase of theirs to be increasingly bullshitty. They either don't know what the f they are looking at ... even as mid-aged Master's holders with years of experience, or they are lying in a 'marketing of significance' campaign ultimately to keep funding their jobs!

Because for the 15th time....what happens, the opposite. 

MJO is dying in the progs now not even making it to phase 5.  Weee... momentum - right?   Same deal different devil... That has been a leitmotif the last 10 f years and counting, where that technology can't seem to stay coupled with the ENSO, or proves utterly unstable and unreliable.   Why are they continuing to sell that coverage/monitoring?  That's why I wonder if some of these PDFs are on-going PR to keep their value and salaries going. 

Heh... okay okay. I'm p.o.ed and exaggerating and being a-hole here ...just bear with me while I vent.  LOL ... I'm sure they're all great guys and gals and geniuses... fine -

So, the MJO dies... and we just end up back sloshing into blocking after all?  It just more than seems we've been here and done this, ...over and over and over ...nth times.

It just seems we've also been dealt reverses - I'm almost willing to bet that the moment I click send, the 12z will come out and show it going warm after all.   And around and around we go.  

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Keep telling yourself that…

 

I mean most everybody knows winters over, but Holy sh*t I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poster that constantly says winters over like you do?  

Bro move to Phoenix already. 

we just had the first torrential downpour of the warm season.  Is that better?

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Happy first severe weather day of the season 

Depends where one is in this murk today.  I realize you got a thread going but we ain't gettin shit NE of HFD in this ... and it's not clear this BD won't make it that far, either.  Might be safe..not sure.  It's 57 there, with modest DP support and S wind... But it's 45 in ORH with NE satan's rhea...

This is busting SW as BD's typically do for us up here - as far as I can tell at this hour.   I guess we'll see how far it gets.  

I suppose 'elevate' activity could orange lightning here and there... sure. 

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