March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see that at all. Next week is chilly.

This month doesn't look to end up particularly notable for any reason.

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold gin?

 

I think you mean this...
 

[SouthCoastMA]

Wolfie is a wounded animal.

if all models showed something we'd all interested. destined to fail is definitely not a good way to forecast

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This sounds like voodoo gibberish.

It’s late March, not the time of year for winter threats to trend better.

[MJO812]

I'm still in winter mode

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm still in winter mode

Winter is done. It's time for you to transition to Mets losing mode

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s late March, not the time of year for winter threats to trend better.

Yeah, it's just weird he's using the logic "this winter has been bad, so that means any late season threat will fall apart" in a non-joking manner.....lol.

I mean, we've had plenty of late season events in garbage winters (April 2020, April 2016 (2 events actually), late Mar and Apr 2007, late Mar 2002, Apr 1997, etc, etc)

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Will today be legit 74 in Boston? Or that early season 74 when we end up getting a wind off the water and it's 45?

Ha, this sentiment suggests you know this region all-to-well.

It's likely to happen ...but nailing the arrival timing is tricky.  

The total synopsis reveals today's balm is quite precarious.  The models are building surface pressure in rapidity throughout Quebec during the day-light hours today.   The surface pressure contouring in fact orients Brian and points north as though they are already behind the boundary, when no boundary hasn't actually gone through them - the mass field just rotates  ... 

But this sets up the classic mass discontinuity, where NYC is lower in pressure than PWM and down the boundary rolls. The NAM has been hitting that timing arrival ~ 4pm for Rt 2 and the N. Shore

Eastern New England's physical geography causes these pressure discontinuities to move SW. 

 

Because the elevation of NE PA to the Greens/White, produce a natural topographic barrier, and this causes an "implied" rolling motion to the the winds as that warm sector's wind motion you see here ( PA and southwest of there...), moves over then you get the eddy curl... It's similar to why there is east wind sometimes in the Plains ahead of a S/W nosing in from over the Rocky Mountains...only it does it at a smaller scale.  Anyway, because we are right next door to cold Quebec and Canadian Maritime waters...those then mesh in dense chilly air.  So you have constructive interference that really favors least excuse imagined to decouple the lower atmosphere from the mid levels.   Think of it as opening a freezer door, and watching the steam roll across the floor. It's 10 F in the thin layer at the bottom?   Well it's 38 in Boston and 72 in NYC.  ...The fact that it seems to always happen during the Red Sox home opener series is a separate and arguable supernatural phenomenon, altogether.

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This sounds like voodoo gibberish.

Lol..it is but it’s worked most of the winter. So we go with that to end the suffering. Winters have a tenor…and garbage is this years tenor. 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s late March, not the time of year for winter threats to trend better.

Nothing really has trended better all year…and that’s the point.  I’m obviously being sarcastic and joking about the gibberish, but it’s been the trend and tenor all season. 

[DavisStraight]

41 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Wolfie is a wounded animal.

if all models showed something we'd all interested. destined to fail is definitely not a good way to forecast

I think he caught rabies sometime this winter, left untreated it changes the animals personality.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just weird he's using the logic "this winter has been bad, so that means any late season threat will fall apart" in a non-joking manner.....lol.

I mean, we've had plenty of late season events in garbage winters (April 2020, April 2016 (2 events actually), late Mar and Apr 2007, late Mar 2002, Apr 1997, etc, etc)

 

Absolutely correct.  But not happening this year. Sometimes it does. And it is voo doo gibberish, but it’s been the vibe of this whole winter.   This season won’t have a season ending pick me up like those did, cuz it’s a rat at heart.  Yes, more voo Doo there but it fits the vibe perfectly. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely correct.  But not happening this year. Sometimes it does. And it is voo doo gibberish, but it’s been the vibe of this whole winter.   This season won’t have a season ending pick me up like those did, cuz it’s a rat at heart.  Yes, more voo Doo there but it fits the vibe perfectly. 

The other winters were rats too....so yeah, this is unserious voodoo.

[SouthCoastMA]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm still in winter mode

You are the Hiroo Onoda of Winter

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, dryslot said:

It was a little better then last winter here but my grades are weighted highly on snow retention so it will be another low one this year.

Retention is also a significant part of my winter opinions, and barring a major white surprise, we'll finish BN again this year.  However, SDDs are already 200"+ ahead of 20-21 and only 73 from the median of 1,444.  The current average of 1,774 will slide down by about 10 or so after the books close on 21-22.  Unless it turns cold with maybe some flakes, this morning's 16" pack won't last into April.  15 of 23 winters have lasted into that month and 2 others made it to 3/31.  Bad winter but already 14" more SN than last one's ratter (though also nearly 2' BN).  C'est la vie.

54 yesterday, going for 60+ today?  I'm guessing warmth and rain means the Sandy River sheds its ice Sunday or Monday, should be little (not zero) chance of jamming as it's being eaten away from below.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The other winters were rats too....so yeah, this is unserious voodoo.

And those winters were more region wide ratters. Been at least fortunate from about Kevin to you on SE. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

And those winters were more region wide ratters. Been at least fortunate from about Kevin to you on SE. 

My worst winter in the past 25 years actually had accumulating snowfall on 4/26.....April 26, 2000.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2000/us0426.php

 

[dendrite]

I always seem to get a 1-2” CAD deal every mid/late April. Crap winter or not. 

[Torch Tiger]

wolfie is an absolute buzzkill this AM

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This month doesn't look to end up particularly notable for any reason.

Yeah... I'm seeing the bowling season prospects "trying" to abolish in the runs...  for lack of better word.   I see radiative forcing is definitely screwing with the runs.  The 12z versions are always colder than the 00z, for now 7 days worth of runs.   And that's likely due to the grid initialization in situ to that time of day...  which is highly attributable to diurnal thermal loading. 

The GFS does something every year that I have been noticing over the last decade.  It takes that warmth, and then out in time it's like it scrubbing it from the run ...forgetting what season it is... It ends up regressing back some two week's worth of climo by the end of the extended - as a tendency mind you. It's more or less coherent. 

Anyway, more concisely I don't trust these cold looks as of this morning. I'm changing my opinion some - open to thing breaking warmer ...perhaps the models just cleansing it away every so often, sending out the 'we should keep and eye on x-y-z' vibes. 

I realize you have your own ideas on La Nina spring due to particulars in the layout out there in the Pacific, but the problems I have with any La Nina anything ...is that it has been stuttering to really stay coupled all year - which I have warning of that for 6 years now by the way... It's been doing that regardless of ENSOs.    We need to start putting caveat emptor statements that at least acknowledges that propensity in our seasonal outlooks, I feel, going forward.. .but whatever -

CPC is reporting a powerful MJO signature is possibly emerging, and it would be in constructive interference with the La Nina ... that might" be enough to recouple and then what?  If it is your version of La Nina's influence, ...that can't really happen, because Phase 3-6 is does not correlate to blocking anywhere - not very well.  That implies destructive interference, not constructive...   so there is a conflict there.  If it is CPC generic La Nina, than this could break warmer and the models are just doing typical seasonal grogginess

So hopefully this gave everyone a popsicle headache hahaha 

[WinterWolf]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The other winters were rats too....so yeah, this is unserious voodoo.

Of course it is Will…it’s just some venting that’s all.
 

This season has been one of the most annoying in decades.  Good blocking and pattern in December, but a horrific -PNA so  the combo shredding everything to nothing.  Boob lows, elongated pieces of trash, lows chasing convection, zero model agreement the day of most storms, everything trending worse as we close in…ensembles showing great patterns that never quite materialize, just garbage through and through. 
 

Yes some Rats sometimes have season ending snow storms. But this one won’t.  And that’s fine by me.

 

Got up north 3 times, had 3 great sledding trip so I got my fill. Just disappointed for around here in SNE. It’s over and I’m glad. We spring..at least for today lol. 
 

And I’ll go get my rabies shot on my lunch break..lmao. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wolfie is an absolute buzzkill this AM

Ya…I’m good. Just had to vent. Loving this day though. Gonna be a winner for sure. We take. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I'm seeing the bowling season prospects "trying" to abolish in the runs...  for lack of better word.   I see radiative forcing is definitely screwing with the runs.  The 12z versions are always colder than the 00z, for now 7 days worth of runs.   And that's likely due to the grid initialization in situ to that time of day...  which is highly attributable to diurnal thermal loading. 

The GFS does something every year that I have been noticing over the last decade.  It takes that warmth, and then out in time it's like it scrubbing it from the run ...forgetting what season it is... It ends up regressing back some two week's worth of climo by the end of the extended - as a tendency mind you. It's more or less coherent. 

Anyway, more concisely I don't trust these cold looks as of this morning. I'm changing my opinion some - open to thing breaking warmer ...perhaps the models just cleansing it away every so often, sending out the 'we should keep and eye on x-y-z' vibes. 

I realize you have your own ideas on La Nina spring due to particulars in the layout out there in the Pacific, but the problems I have with any La Nina anything ...is that it has been stuttering to really stay coupled all year - which I have warning of that for 6 years now by the way... It's been doing that regardless of ENSOs.    We need to start putting caveat emptor statements that at least acknowledges that propensity in our seasonal outlooks, I feel, going forward.. .but whatever -

CPC is reporting a powerful MJO signature is possibly emerging, and it would be in constructive interference with the La Nina ... that might" be enough to recouple and then what?  If it is your version of La Nina's influence, ...that can't really happen, because Phase 3-6 is does not correlate to blocking anywhere - not very well.  That implies destructive interference, not constructive...   so there there is a conflict there.  If it is CPC generic La Nina, than this could break warmer and the models are just doing typical seasonal grogginess

So hopefully this gave everyone a popsicle headache hahaha 

I'm checked out at this point.....I don't have any ideas RE anything. All I need to know is that no snow is imminent, so I'm off to baseball.

 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course it is Will…it’s just some venting that’s all.
 

This season has been one of the most annoying in decades.  Good blocking and pattern in December, but a horrific -PNA so  the combo shredding everything to nothing.  Boob lows, elongated pieces of trash, lows chasing convection, zero model agreement the day of most storms, everything trending worse as we close in…ensembles showing great patterns that never quite materialize, just garbage through and through. 
 

Yes some Rats sometimes have season ending snow storms. But this one won’t.  And that’s fine by me.

 

Got up north 3 times, had 3 great sledding trip so I got my fill. Just disappointed for around here in SNE. It’s over and I’m glad. We spring..at least for today lol. 
 

And I’ll go get my rabies shot on my lunch break..lmao. 

Yeah that's fine.....and I'm just telling you that you actually have no idea if we'll get another event or not....not that you will be wrong in your prediction. For your area, you are prob like 50/50 not to see any more accumulating snowfall....up where I am, I'm probably favored to see it again.

[radarman]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just weird he's using the logic "this winter has been bad, so that means any late season threat will fall apart" in a non-joking manner.....lol.

I mean, we've had plenty of late season events in garbage winters (April 2020, April 2016 (2 events actually), late Mar and Apr 2007, late Mar 2002, Apr 1997, etc, etc)

 

Last year even.  8.5" here on April 16th after zippo in March.  Don't recall how areas further east did.  Bigger than any event we had this year LOL

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

Last year even.  8.5" here on April 16th after zippo in March.  Don't recall how areas further east did.

We did worse, but I still had around 4" of paste or so. ORH had around 7".

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's fine.....and I'm just telling you that you actually have no idea if we'll get another event or not....not that you will be wrong in your prediction. For your area, you are prob like 50/50 not to see any more accumulating snowfall....up where I am, I'm probably favored to see it again.

I think the gap in y'alls perspectives here is clearly "trend"

Winterwolf probably had some snark internally as he was typing his/her original jest - sorry I have never met you.  But, tamber of voice and intent cannot really be affectingly conveyed...so that didn't help. 

But, he would have done much better if he kept the argument as "trend tends to beget trend," which is a completely valid and less cracked-logical approach.

The total manifold of causes and effects can remain imaginary, when discussing trend and persistence.   Leave otherwise out of the discussion.  Just ask the question, 'Is there any prominent reason of factor that indicates the persistence will not continue?'  ...

if the answer's no, his ending up at the statement, "I just knew it wouldn't -" has merit based upon that alone - which it does frankly ( to me).  

Oh, he/she could certainly caveat emptor with, "pending something that's yet to occur, intervening to break the trend"  ..which would also be true. 

Fact of the matter is, these cold solution events have either left lots on tables, or failed, with persistence... 

Why that is ?   I think it has something to do with the velocity saturation of the hemisphere. It's also something that's been going on a lot over recent winters, too - not just this one.  We're still doing okay in the snow vs climo comparison ( more or less...). But that could be PWAT loading being CC higher, offsetting the exploded ravioli patterns.  Just a personal hypothesis -

[Torch Tiger]

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course it is Will…it’s just some venting that’s all.
 

This season has been one of the most annoying in decades.  Good blocking and pattern in December, but a horrific -PNA so  the combo shredding everything to nothing.  Boob lows, elongated pieces of trash, lows chasing convection, zero model agreement the day of most storms, everything trending worse as we close in…ensembles showing great patterns that never quite materialize, just garbage through and through. 
 

Yes some Rats sometimes have season ending snow storms. But this one won’t.  And that’s fine by me.

 

Got up north 3 times, had 3 great sledding trip so I got my fill. Just disappointed for around here in SNE. It’s over and I’m glad. We spring..at least for today lol. 
 

And I’ll go get my rabies shot on my lunch break..lmao. 

You cannot be far from normal snowfall-wise though, right?  Do you average near 50"? and you've got over 40"?  I'm not sure.  Annoying winter yes but seems a bit harsh in retrospect

[Typhoon Tip]

That's different.. interesting. 

the NAM holds the back door from invading eastern zones on this 12z guidance  ...      in March

It had it that way for 4 cycles, and fits climate... So I guess we're sending a +24 2-meter high temp anomaly into eastern zones, unscathed.

By the way, yeah... I wasn't even paying attention but that looks unusually convective later tomorrow for also March.  I mean, regional LI's to -4 at this time of year, and not just spiking..but laid in as a slab of troposphere is interesting.

[Cyclone-68]

Impressive lightning from Knoxville TN all the way down into N.O.