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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see that at all. Next week is chilly.

Agreed.
 

And It just snowed last Wednesday and Saturday…and was quite cold. A few warm days are nice…but hardly a March 2012. Be nice when the end of March and beginning of April starts, if these mild and warm days start becoming regular fare.  That almost never happens, and that’s where spring in SNE is grueling most years. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love these years with early spring. We tried to tell @40/70 Benchmarklast fall that Morch looked warm . This is turning into mini 2012 month . No cold or BN or snow in sight. Things greening and blooming. It’s so over 

Mixed indicators …

in one possible reality Will and Scott’s colder profile and possible event is actually in some models. 

in the other, CPC’s powerful MJO/La Niña climate warm washes everything by the last week of the month - emerging in the models given time. 

either scenario gives room for cold next week. You may want to clear your calendar for at least that much. By then we’ll have a handle on whether deep spring really arrives the last week. It may be that we conjure up an exit event type deal 24/25th

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Just because the weather has gotten milder lately doesn’t mean snow is done. Big ridge out west, trough in the east, and most importantly we have North Atlantic blocking! With the late March shortening wavelengths combined with a favorable western ridge placement and North Atlantic blocking in place, there is an incredibly strong signal for a BOWLING BALL!!!!
We go bowling every year in that early spring timeframe, but we kinda suck at it. The problem isn’t that we aren’t capable of throwing strikes, we have the strength to put enough juice on the ball to knock all the pins down. The problem is we have the command of the Red Sox bullpen last year, so absolute dogshit. That’s why most years when we bowl, we only knock down 1 or 2 pins at most. Often we will chuck a gutterball, and our worst bowling sessions (March 2012), we chuck that shit into someone else’s lane, they get pissed, complain and you get kicked out of the bowling alley. Other years, like April 1997, our wildly innaccurate arm somehow manages to chuck it right down the middle at full speed, a clean strike. This is very rare, but when it happens, it’s a thing of beauty. This year, we have whiffed and whiffed, and are on the last frame. We have chucked the bowling ball, and it hasn’t gone into the gutter or someone else’s lane, it actually looks like it’s going right down the middle. Will it stay the course, or sharply hook left/right, leading to a whiff? We will find out next week!image.png.78d6bab4c22d7e7c4e2a85244445144f.png

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Shocker….saw that coming a mile away. Shit box winter right to the end. Let’s Flush this F’n piece of trash.  Farewell and don’t let the door hit you in the ass.  

Meh only gfs showed it and it’s long range. Happens in any winter.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh only gfs showed it and it’s long range. Happens in any winter.

Meh it’s a shit winter period…and it wouldn’t have mattered if all modeling showed it, it would have failed anyway. I knew it wouldn’t and couldn’t pull it off, it’s been the same old crap since the very beginning of the season…ensemble looks that never pan out, and this was no different.  
 

One thing, at least it stayed consistently bad to the end, so it was easy to call that so called potential next week a fraud. 
 

God I hope it’s done now. Let’s get spring in here.  75 here is gonna be easy to do here today..we rocket. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just Messing with ta Wiz.  Hope you get some severe to track. It just falls apart more often than not, and especially early on like now. But have at it my friend. 

I know :) 

It is certainly very early for severe weather here, but this isn't a typical SNE severe setup. Anytime you get an elevated mixed-layer or steep mid-level lapse rates involved this raises the bar a bit. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Meh it’s a shit winter period…and it wouldn’t have mattered if all modeling showed it, it would have failed anyway. I knew it wouldn’t and couldn’t pull it off, it’s been the same old crap since the very beginning of the season…ensemble looks that never pan out, and this was no different.  
 

One thing, at least it stayed consistently bad to the end, so it was easy to call that so called potential next week a fraud. 
 

God I hope it’s done now. Let’s get spring in here.  75 here is gonna be easy to do here today..we rocket. 

This sounds like voodoo gibberish.

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