ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 1:52 PM, WinterWolf said: It’s certainly worth taking a peak every couple days as you said, but it will ultimately fail. I know, persistent works only until it doesn’t, but I don’t think this winter/season can pull that off. It’s a rat at its core. Expand I'm not sure if missing out on a moderate event in late March is a defining feature of a rat season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 1:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure if missing out on a moderate event in late March is a defining feature of a rat season. Expand I think that period is interesting. I was sort of teasing it yesterday, but it’s not a bad look. Obviously caveats apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 1:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure if missing out on a moderate event in late March is a defining feature of a rat season. Expand No, my point is, it’s a rat season at heart, so that’s why it will miss. Season has done nothing interesting here all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:08 PM, WinterWolf said: No, my point is, it’s a rat season at heart, so that’s why it will miss. Season has done nothing interesting here all winter. Expand You never know....96-97 was the ultimate rat season until March 31-April 1. Obviously I agree its unlikely to happen...that is why I am so scare these days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Uhg, overcast and 40° here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 96-97 including the April blizzard was pretty bad in NNE. I did get a nice event in mid-December that rained in SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:35 PM, Torch Tiger said: 96-97 including the April blizzard was pretty bad in NNE. I did get a nice event in mid-December that rained in SNE. Expand I think NNE did very well. Like lakes region on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:35 PM, Torch Tiger said: 96-97 including the April blizzard was pretty bad in NNE. I did get a nice event in mid-December that rained in SNE. Expand The first December event was good where we are, but the second one was snow to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You never know....96-97 was the ultimate rat season until March 31-April 1. Obviously I agree its unlikely to happen...that is why I am so scare these days. Expand While it's nothing compared to 1997, April 2016 also had a very cold moderate snow event after a garbage season. 1944 also had a pretty large storm around the equinox after a pathetic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: I think NNE did very well. Like lakes region on north. Expand I can only remember 2 good snow events from that winter. and of course the blizzard completely missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: I think NNE did very well. Like lakes region on north. Expand I went to Sunday River that year....they got buried in late January and February 1997. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:46 PM, ORH_wxman said: While it's nothing compared to 1997, April 2016 also had a very cold moderate snow event after a garbage season. 1944 also had a pretty large storm around the equinox after a pathetic winter. Expand Caveat being its always pretty unlikely from late March onward....but I would argue that you have to toss the whole "tenor of the season" thing at that point, as well....everything just reshuffles as the wavelengths shorten and it really ceases to be relevant anymore. It just becomes a total crapshoot/lottery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Caveat being its always pretty unlikely from late March onward....but I would argue that you have to toss the whole "tenor of the season" thing at that point, as well....everything just reshuffles as the wavelengths shorten and it really ceases to be relevant anymore. It just becomes a total crapshoot/lottery. Expand Plinko 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:46 PM, ORH_wxman said: While it's nothing compared to 1997, April 2016 also had a very cold moderate snow event after a garbage season. 1944 also had a pretty large storm around the equinox after a pathetic winter. Expand April 2016 was the near-final kick in the teeth for that ratter, as we had cold clouds while SNE snowed. (And not as cold as ORH by a lot) Then in May another nudge as we were a bit too far south for the mid-month surprise. 96-97 in Gardiner had average snow but meh storms, none bigger than 8". Had the lesser northerly storm drop 7.5" on 3/31-4/1, worst homeward commute of my 2 years of Gardiner-Farmington drives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:57 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Plinko Expand This year it will be: "the Price is Wrong, bitch" 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:50 PM, Torch Tiger said: I can only remember 2 good snow events from that winter. and of course the blizzard completely missed Expand I was housesitting for my GF‘s aunt and uncle in Newton while they were in northern Vermont. They thought I was joking when I told them there had been a massive snowstorm. They came back on the 2nd and were flabbergasted, Their side street still had not been plowed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:57 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Plinko Expand Just an analogy. Getting everything to line up just right in late March is akin to getting your Plinko chip to fall into the $10,000 slot. I guess only The Price is Right fans got that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 3:49 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Just an analogy. Getting everything to line up just right in late March is akin to getting your Plinko chip to fall into the $10,000 slot. I guess only The Price is Right fans got that one. Expand Yea, I missed that one haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Who can forget The blizzard of 1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:02 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Who can forget The blizzard of 1982 Expand Yeah I was gonna mention that one but we were focusing on big late season storms in crappy winters....and '81-'82 was a good winter even before the April blizzard. At any rate, GFS is still interested in the threat late next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was gonna mention that one but we were focusing on big late season storms in crappy winters....and '81-'82 was a good winter even before the April blizzard. At any rate, GFS is still interested in the threat late next week. Expand We watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was gonna mention that one but we were focusing on big late season storms in crappy winters....and '81-'82 was a good winter even before the April blizzard. At any rate, GFS is still interested in the threat late next week. Expand Up here Franklin COOP had 50" going into the April 12-13, 1933 storm and then scored 35" in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:42 PM, CoastalWx said: We watch. Expand Yeah really convoluted blocky setup....could support something pretty big, but it would also be no surprise at all if we got nothing out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:52 PM, dendrite said: Up here Franklin COOP had 50" going into the April 12-13, 1933 storm and then scored 35" in that. Expand Wow that sounds almost like a carbon copy of ORH in 1996-1997 going into the blizzard....I think ORH had 54.5" going into the '97 storm. Then 33" from the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah really convoluted blocky setup....could support something pretty big, but it would also be no surprise at all if we got nothing out of it. Expand GEFS are interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 5:04 PM, CoastalWx said: GEFS are interesting. Expand Hmmm…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 56F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 5:09 PM, WinterWolf said: Hmmm…. Expand Hmmm Hmmm Hmmm Hmmm.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Yet this ... • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observationalRMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of themain convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean duringthe past week.• There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagationof the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next twoweeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitudeevent.• The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, isexpected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Oceanduring the next two weeks.• The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint wouldfavor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperaturesacross eastern North America later in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Summit is at 51F! Mixing down to 64F at MVL. It’s hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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