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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Hazey
Hazey

I’m think 10 might be attainable. We are in the heaviest of the snow and it’s adding up quick. Took a snap out the window #NovaScotiaStrong

dendrite
dendrite
dendrite
dendrite

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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  On 3/4/2022 at 2:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have differing versions of doing well. 12" with a max depth of 10" in a storm like that makes me want to vomit bile.....but I get it.

I have to think it evens out....I don't have a period on record during which this area endured five consecutive clunkers. There is a reasonwhy I average what I do.

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I think given your record there, 12" probably was triggering. I get it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 3/4/2022 at 2:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have differing versions of doing well. 12" with a max depth of 10" in a storm like that makes me want to vomit bile.....but I get it.

I have to think it evens out....I don't have a period on record during which this area endured five consecutive clunkers. There is a reason why I average what I do.

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First time for everything....ORH hadn't seen even 3 consecutive winters without a 10"+ storm on record from 1892-1988....then with perfect precision after I move back to ORH from Texas as a little kid, we get not only 3 in a row, but FOUR in a row without a 10"+ storm.

Maybe you get that in Methuen after moving there like I did with ORH.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 3/4/2022 at 2:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

First time for everything....ORH hadn't seen even 3 consecutive winters without a 10"+ storm on record from 1892-1988....then with perfect precision after I move back to ORH from Texas as a little kid, we get not only 3 in a row, but FOUR in a row without a 10"+ storm.

Maybe you get that in Methuen after moving there like I did with ORH.

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And maybe I see a 4'er.....if we are entertaining the "first for everything" notion. At some point, it has to snap back, like ORH did.

But I think the consecutive clunker total season record is tougher to achieve than the 10" storm observation...that is just more about unfortunate snowfall distribution.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/4/2022 at 2:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad we couldn't lock in the GGEM....like 2 feet of snow next weekend from 2 systems. What a clown model that is.

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Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter.  

I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex.  It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ...  anyway, I think the GFS is too fast.

Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro.   They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion).   But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli...  

The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really.   The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles...

Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours.  It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows.   

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 3/4/2022 at 3:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah wrote about this an hour ago ...not that run, per se, but the fact that the GFS is smearing/interfering a D7-ish Miller A with what appears to be a half-assed attempt at a -EPO Lake cutter.  

I think the GFS is suffering from a speed bias ...one that it has at all times, but by virtue of operating in a speeding field...it hides that propensity - it's little complex.  It's like the fast gradient soaked hemisphere "enables" the GFS ...  anyway, I think the GFS is too fast.

Conversely, the GGEM tend to curve surfaces too much in that range... so to does the Euro.   They both seem to get to that subtle bias, different ways though... (different discussion).   But the take away is that a decimal-slower look would keep these features into their own identities, so we end up with a glob Miller A of minoring impact in the Euro and GGEM... with the GFS just one big exploited ravioli...  

The GGEM has a much more H.A. correction event look, after any would-be Miller A. That's essentially the Ides bomb I mused yesterday, really.   The Euro opts for a just a big intense polar front with unending cold implied, with not much else resulting from these index wiggles...

Meanwhile, the GFS' dailies seem to hearken seasonal change ... It's not "sustaining" warmth - I agree there. But it is bulging more hydrostatic thickness and then residually leaving them at higher latitudes post fronts out through 360 hours.  It's an aspect it started doing yesterday and still is...It "might" be seasonal stressing/radiative forcing ...who knows.   

 

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I really need the GFS or GEM to be right....the EURO is just miserable.

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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  On 3/4/2022 at 3:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That was another big interior season....coast struggled (except the Cape got a private blizzard)

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I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old:

"L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES

FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT
FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort."

This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC

'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

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  On 3/4/2022 at 3:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old:

"L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES

FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT
FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort."

This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC

'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis.

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I remember it, sharp cutoff so I got bupkus, I remember watching it on the news, I think it was one of the Shelby Scott storms.

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weathafella

weathafella

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  On 3/4/2022 at 3:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I wish I remembered this one as a 3 year old:

"L.A. TIMES ARCHIVES

FEB. 10, 1987 12 AM PT
FROM UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

A blustery storm that battered the Northeast and buried Cape Cod under 2 feet of snow and drifts 10 feet high swept farther off the Eastern Seaboard today as the National Guard moved in to aid in the cleanup effort."

This quote would trigger a young PF or PhineasC

'I should open a ski resort down here,' said Jeff Grant, 25, owner of Spinnaker Records in Hyannis.

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I probably read that in real time as I gazed at my burgeoning orange tree in my yard while vomiting my coffee.....

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

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  On 3/4/2022 at 6:23 PM, weathafella said:

I probably read that in real time as I gazed at my burgeoning orange tree in my yard while vomiting my coffee.....

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I think it missed where you are or were before you moved, if this is the one I'm thinking of Dick Albert predicted 15-20 with blizzard condition for most of Mass, Natalie asked him if it could slide out to sea and he said NO. It ended up further south and East and mainly got the cape and there was a sharp cutoff, I don't remember where the cutoff ended up but it was mainly a Cape storm.

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