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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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  On 3/2/2022 at 2:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Probably more mid month. Might be a cutter risk there 10-12. I'm kind of checking out. If there is nothing imminent it's not worth getting excited. You walk out now it's mild....could wear a t shirt. Just doesn't have the same feel or excitement it did even a month ago. 

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If something major(and not 1-3/2-4 BS) becomes imminent…the feel will come right back…bet on it! 
 

But until something is imminent(or never happens)…I hear ya completely.  

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  On 3/2/2022 at 3:50 PM, WinterWolf said:

If something major(and not 1-3/2-4 BS) becomes imminent…the feel will come right back…bet on it! 
 

But until something is imminent(or never happens)…I hear ya completely.  

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Oh I'm there for anything big. And hell I'll take a few inches here or there. I just meant nothing looks promising at the moment and I'm not paying that much attn to weather over the next week. 

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Aside from maybe a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow tonight, close the shades until after 3/10....the pattern still does look quite good after that point though. I'd be surprised if we don't have another legit threat. May not pan out, but hard to see not having a threat or two.

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  On 3/2/2022 at 4:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Aside from maybe a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow tonight, close the shades until after 3/10....the pattern still does look quite good after that point though. I'd be surprised if we don't have another legit threat. May not pan out, but hard to see not having a threat or two.

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The 12z GFS looks pretty good for NNE for the 3/7-3/8 event. Definitely a net gain for the ski areas at the very least if taken verbatim.

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  On 3/2/2022 at 4:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Aside from maybe a brief burst of moderate to heavy snow tonight, close the shades until after 3/10....the pattern still does look quite good after that point though. I'd be surprised if we don't have another legit threat. May not pan out, but hard to see not having a threat or two.

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What blocking were you referring to yesterday post 3/10?

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  On 3/2/2022 at 5:47 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s a 5 day mean though, seems to be  decaying after 3/10

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The block is over the Bering strait prior to 3/10...it rolls into a more favorable position after that further east. It might not be technically as strong as it is on 3/9 or 3/10 (though we won't know for sure until we are closer), but it's effectively more potent there in terms of impacting our sensible wx.

 

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  On 3/2/2022 at 5:47 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s a 5 day mean though, seems to be  decaying after 3/10.

 

New GEFS keeps a -EPO and gets a nice PNA going for mid month , nice change from last few runs 

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  On 3/2/2022 at 6:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The block is over the Bering strait prior to 3/10...it rolls into a more favorable position after that further east. It might not be technically as strong as it is on 3/9 or 3/10 (though we won't know for sure until we are closer), but it's effectively more potent there in terms of impacting our sensible wx.

 

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The 13th time frame is a big threat. Lot of cold air around as well

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  On 3/2/2022 at 6:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The block is over the Bering strait prior to 3/10...it rolls into a more favorable position after that further east. It might not be technically as strong as it is on 3/9 or 3/10 (though we won't know for sure until we are closer), but it's effectively more potent there in terms of impacting our sensible wx.

 

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Ya definitely in a better position, hopefully will spike a western ridge . 

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  On 3/2/2022 at 5:47 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s a 5 day mean though, seems to be  decaying after 3/10.

 

New GEFS keeps a -EPO and gets a nice PNA going for mid month , nice change from last few runs 

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I think the message of a decent to good  pattern is the takeaway here, as Will and Scott have eluded too post the 10th…there will be some chances. 

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  On 3/2/2022 at 6:13 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya definitely in a better position, hopefully will spike a western ridge . 

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Today's guidance is breaking it down a little faster than yesterday too.....so I think we have about a 7-8 day window between 3/12-3/20 IMHO. Any western ridging during that period will have to be watched since there will be plenty of cold loading already.

Things could obviously change again, but as of now, that looks like the prime period if we have one more big dog threat in us....STJ down south is still ejecting shortwaves too from time to time....so if we can line up all the ducks, then there's a chance.

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  On 3/2/2022 at 7:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's been tenacious here, even in my sun drenched yard. Man pack ftw. Would be nice to get a touch of snow tonight, but whatever is left will lock up into the weekend like a brick. The rain last night just added more meat.

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When we had the sleet frzrn snow storm both of us were working, by the time we got home the flash freeze had locked it all up. It was a bear using a flat ice chopper to pick our way thru the sidewalks and part of the driveway. Yesterday's rain froze overnight. Hopefully when I get home at 5 today the sun softened up the deck and driveway so I can get rid of the 3 to 4 inches of solid ice. Ugh

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  On 3/2/2022 at 7:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's been tenacious here, even in my sun drenched yard. Man pack ftw. Would be nice to get a touch of snow tonight, but whatever is left will lock up into the weekend like a brick. The rain last night just added more meat.

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Since I’m over 50 and don’t like falling I have had crampons on a pair of boots by the front door since December. 
I’ve never had this much glacial ice in my yard for such a long stretch of time.

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EPS has a western ridge spike around 3/14-3/15....if we've got one more big dog left this season, that's probably the most likely period to get it....tons of cold around too when that happens. We'll see how this looks in another few days.

 

 

Mar2_12zEPSanimate.gif

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  On 3/2/2022 at 7:41 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a western ridge spike around 3/14-3/15....if we've got one more big dog left this season, that's probably the most likely period to get it....tons of cold around too when that happens. We'll see how this looks in another few days.

 

 

Mar2_12zEPSanimate.gif

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Pretty precarious loop...check out the little weenie appendage the erects south of the great lakes at hour 300, as the western ridge reaches its apex. If that remains, may have one more round of storm blogs as we await the millionaires and billionaires to settle their shit.

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