March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here were my thoughts with respect to March from last November:

March 2022 Outlook

 

March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011

 

The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically.

Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement.

The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather.

This March forecast, again, is contingent upon the development of high latitude blocking, and the risk is for a warmer outcome should that not occur. or be delayed, as the European guidance hints at.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously the glaring error is with respect to the polar domain, as  it appears as though the uptick in solar activity was enough to derail that. However, clearly the poleward Pacific ridging still holds the potential to deliver during that originally highlighted March 1-15 window.

 

[George001]

Ray, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Ray, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile.

I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days.

Eps looks really interesting. Still needs a few tweaks but this far out it’s a good look.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Small disturbance showing on the GFS (1-2") and Euro (lower amounts offshore) for next Thurs    Prob won't be anything

[EastonSN+]

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible?

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible?

The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. 
 

The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now.

[Allsnow]

Looking at the pattern going forward hard not to envision Boston getting over 60 for the season. 

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now.

Yeah you’d prob need like a moderate storm of 6-10” and then cash in on a big dog of 12-18”+. Maybe another smaller nuisance event or two mixed in there somewhere before mid-April and there’s your 30”+ to get you to normal. 

[bristolri_wx]

Even the ops runs have been active in long range for our neck of the woods… along with ensembles there’s some potential there…

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looking at the pattern going forward hard not to envision Boston getting over 60 for the season. 

The pattern could get NYC to normal for the year if it verifies. Crazy what a 200 mile difference does with snow

[78Blizzard]

Ukie has a couple of little clippers next Wed, Thur which should whiten up the dirty snow from the plows.

[tavwtby]

is the 3rd off the table now? I'm having issues loading model data

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

is the 3rd off the table now? I'm having issues loading model data

GFS still has a week clipper-ish system

[HoarfrostHubb]

Euro sorta does as well, but less organized.  Not that the GFS is the second coming of ‘78

[tavwtby]

would be nice if we can get a replay of march 56, or when was it 2018?, where we had like 3 noreasters within the month

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The first week of March looks normal to slightly below.  Pretty tame and dry weather wise until end of the week.  We'll see if the flow flattens a bit or the cutter screams North into the Great Lakes.   Maybe some light accumulation for someone in SNE mid-week?

In any case it will look wintery for a bit after today's snow.

[78Blizzard]

Nice hit in SNE on Ukie on Thursday.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Nice hit in SNE on Ukie on Thursday.

 

[78Blizzard]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

GFS says what clipper, and CMC says it goes north and weaker.

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now.

36" where do you come up with that?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

36" where do you come up with that?

My measured total on the season.

36.5" now.

[MJO812]

You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. 

I don’t see anything wrong.  Next week is questionable and has been. Still looks like  an overrunning look.

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You know things aren't looking good when there isn't a post in the last 5 hours. 

It's just after storm hangover / need to get a threat closer. I'd be surprised if March goes by quietly 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t see anything wrong.  Next week is questionable and has been. Still looks like  an overrunning look.

Sleet 

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, tavwtby said:

would be nice if we can get a replay of march 56, or when was it 2018?, where we had like 3 noreasters within the month

I'd go for another March 2001, 55.5" and closing with a 19" dump on 30-31 that brought the pack to 48".  The big dog on 3/5-6 was only the 3rd biggest storm that month.