Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 WPC's afternoon update earlier today - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Lots of red on those counties counties… really surprised there’s just advisories, especially with the way the mesos are trending here tonight There's some disconnect between what's being modeled and my local forecasts. The way my local forecasts have trended makes me think it might ZR for maybe a couple of hours after midnight and then everything warms up by sunrise. First it was supposed to start at 7, then the forecast said 9, now it says 11. Looking at the 0Z NAM though makes it look like ZR all the way from midnight until 10am. This strikes me as a very not straightforward weather system (can we even call it a storm? I guess it will be much further north). I don't envy being a met tonight, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 18z EC looks ugly for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The Warning criteria is at least 5"/6" snow and/or sleet, and is also based on the designated certain amounts expected over either a 12 hour period or over 24 hours.. The Ice Storm Warning has its own amounts needed to qualify... The ice storm Warning is pretty significant icing - they actually have one up over on the western side of the state (lofted by State College's WFO). What often happens with these overrunning storms with marginal temps here is that the warm air comes pouring eventually and the estimated time for continuous icing might not make the 24 hour min. So current modeling is .50-.80” ZR across the board for northern areas… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So current modeling is .50-.80” ZR across the board for northern areas… Well the models may be saying that but they aren't using them verbatim for their guidance. They use a bunch of other things including their blend model (that RedSky calls the "scapple model" ). So for the 0z NBM, you get this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well the models may be saying that but they aren't using them verbatim for their guidance. They use a bunch of other things including their blend model (that RedSky calls the "scapple model" ). So for the 0z NBM, you get this - See what happens come morning, they’ll prolly issue ISW at the end of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3k nam never turns completely to plain rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, anthonyweather said: See what happens come morning, they’ll prolly issue ISW at the end of the event Will have to see how many of us (and when) we get into the warm sector (0z NAM is icy but am wondering if that is overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 WRF mesos are 95% frozen here. Minimal amount falls as plain rain at the tail end. Pretty ugly.look on the high res stuff tonight as this approaches. Definitely cold enough outside. Sitting at 30F here in Ivyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I noticed Ralph's temps are colder than mine. Check out this weird warm pocket: I'll probably do this again in a couple of hours. 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WRF mesos are 95% frozen here. Minimal amount falls as plain rain at the tail end. Pretty ugly.look on the high res stuff tonight as this approaches. Definitely cold enough outside. Sitting at 30F here in Ivyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Surprised that guy who lives for ice storms hasn't been posting here. I don't think it'll ice in my part too bad but I hope for the best and same for my PA brothers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WRF mesos are 95% frozen here. Minimal amount falls as plain rain at the tail end. Pretty ugly.look on the high res stuff tonight as this approaches. Definitely cold enough outside. Sitting at 30F here in Ivyland. It seems that TWC is saying it'll warm up basically fairly quickly overnight and this isn't much to worry about for everyone. At least I hope that's the case. If it ends up not panning out that way it'll surprise alot of people in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Little late in the game but GFS has also increased the ice zone and amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: It seems that TWC is saying it'll warm up basically fairly quickly overnight and this isn't much to worry about for everyone. At least I hope that's the case. If it ends up not panning out that way it'll surprise alot of people in the AM You're probably ok across the river but N and W of there is trending the wrong way at the last minute. Perfectly timed late Feb nocturnal ice storm to catch am commute on a Friday off-guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You're probably ok across the river but N and W of there is trending the wrong way at the last minute. Perfectly timed late Feb nocturnal ice storm to catch am commute on a Friday off-guard. I’ve hammered for the past 2 days that N&w of Philly through poconos are in trouble, hopefully I got through to some of them haha… report from millersville that heavy sleet is falling out there. Winds kicked up and I’m at 29 up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Temp continues to fall steadily with the onset of precipitation here in NW Chesco....temp is down to 27.5 DP 23.9. Mainly ZR here with sleet mixing in from time to time. My deck and walk is already very icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Sometime in the past hour we had some freezing rain. There is a super thin, icy coating on my deck furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Media Delaware County heavy rain 28 it’s raining so hard that there is no ice accretion just running off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Precip came in pretty heavy here in Millersville. Little ice accretion due to the heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Getting moderate rain here with temp at 30 and dp 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Looks to me we will have minimal problems for the following reason in Delaware County: 1. heavy rates not allowing for ice accretion. 2. relative warmth from past days. 3. temps think needed to get lower we are currently at 29 it was 28. 4. temps will slowly rise overnight. 5. Warm air aloft in heavier rates will eventually mix down to the surface further aiding in temp rises. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Snow Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 30deg out and I hear pouring rain outside. Can't get a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Looks to me we will have minimal problems for the following reason in Delaware County: 1. heavy rates not allowing for ice accretion. 2. relative warmth from past days. 3. temps think needed to get lower we are currently at 29 it was 28. 4. temps will slowly rise overnight. 5. Warm air aloft in heavier rates will eventually mix down to the surface further aiding in temp rises. Most of the recent runs of the models were showing a much lower impact in the SE corner of PA and further S/E across S. Jersey and Delaware. It's the people N/W that are going to have a problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Of note my Davis rooftop anemometer has already frozen however the Tempest station on the roof without moving parts continues to work...winds have swung around from the SE to the NE over the last 15 minutes - temp at 27.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Freezing drizzle with a glaze 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Of note my Davis rooftop anemometer has already frozen however the Tempest station on the roof without moving parts continues to work...winds have swung around from the SE to the NE over the last 15 minutes - temp at 27.9 My anemometer is still moving but my gauge bucket in the Ambient is frozen. I do have my Stratus out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Temp is down to 29.8 but the rain is too heavy and it’s just running off of everything. Warm temps leading in, definitely a factor. Don’t think we will see much accretion down here even though we are colder than progged. Areas n and w will probably see some issues on vegetation but I’m still pretty skeptical roads will have problems save for maybe far NW areas. Rain is going to be too heavy for that glaze to form on the roadways. Areas that start as snow/sleet and get a little sleet accumulation down may see some issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Temp is down to 29.8 but the rain is too heavy and it’s just running off of everything. Warm temps leading in, definitely a factor. Don’t think we will see much accretion down here even though we are colder than progged. Areas n and w will probably see some issues on vegetation but I’m still pretty skeptical roads will have problems save for maybe far NW areas. Rain is going to be too heavy for that glaze to form on the roadways. Areas that start as snow/sleet and get a little sleet accumulation down may see some issues though. How much of a threat in my area do you see? Any danger of power outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Sleet up here, down to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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