Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z rgem and latest wrfs are brrrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: I really also do not like the idea of a county Emergency Manager setting the storm criteria as the they have no control of the federal and state highway system, PADOT does. Rt 22, Rt 309, Rt 100, Rt 33 and I-78 are the lifeline for the entire trucking industry and the LV residents in PA and I believe PADOT should have a say so at the table too. You do realize the Emergency Managers in each county work with PEMA, right? And they all also work with their federal counterparts through task forces. https://www.pema.pa.gov/About-Us/Pages/default.aspx Quote About PEMA The Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) is an agency of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Mission The Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) helps communities and citizens mitigate against, prepare for, respond to, and recover from emergencies including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other human-made disasters. PEMA supports county emergency management agencies by coordinating and engaging the whole community including: Federal and state partners Volunteer organizations involved in disasters Private sector business community Citizens None of these people operate in a vacuum and they coordinate with each other to deal with major disruptive events - whether there is hazardous weather or a hazardous chemical release in an area. So for example, this was from PEMA and PennDOT this past October regarding how they planned to handle what would be the upcoming winter season - So the county EMs are the point people when it comes to knowledge of the immediate area and can help inform decisions that might require state/federal responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 RGEM is nastyyyyy 1” of ZR for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Newman said: Mount Holly ice forecast and 18z RGEM below. Definitely not going to see 1" of ice like the RGEM, but parts of the Lehigh Valley could definitely see up to, or perhaps over, 0.5" of ice. I still think sleet will keep accretion down That map doesn't match up at all with CTP's map. If you extrapolate the .25-.50 into CTP's CWA, then Schuylkill County should be in the same range, but CTP's map only gives the Skook .01-.25. Wonder who'll end up closer to being correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Mt. Holly's last tweet from about a half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 18z GFS keeping with the theme... I know this whole setup has a big bust potential (going either way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 hours ago, anthonyweather said: Just riding the NAM home? Absolutely!! from my experience it is by far the best in these ZR potential situations..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Absolutely!! from my experience it is by far the best in these ZR potential situations..... 18z 3k NAM seems realistic assuming the overruning is not a fire-hose like the other models seem to continue to show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 18z 3k NAM seems realistic assuming the overruning is not a fire-hose like the other models seem to continue to show. Agreed! I bet it will go with a little more sleet and less ZR before all is said and done - especially out here in NW Chester County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 36 minutes ago, Voyager said: That map doesn't match up at all with CTP's map. If you extrapolate the .25-.50 into CTP's CWA, then Schuylkill County should be in the same range, but CTP's map only gives the Skook .01-.25. Wonder who'll end up closer to being correct? The tail of two maps... Mt Holly's State College's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, Voyager said: The tail of two maps... Mt Holly's State College's The 18z Euro put the bulk of the icy precip out in Central PA. Of course it's the 18z... There will be many adjustments as we get closer and the short range models will be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Yeesh. Do not want .5 to 1" of frozen rain. Hopefully it's mostly sleet. That said, I've scheduled a couple of different tree services to come out and give us some quotes for take downs, it'd be ironic if this problem solves itself. ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 18z RGEM all in on firehose precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 The NBM is ignoring all the firehoses and seems to be leaning towards the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well we got our first Winter storm watch but not for snow unfortunately, I’m not liking the trends today let’s hope they start backing off the Ice idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Well we got our first Winter storm watch but not for snow unfortunately, I’m not liking the trends today let’s hope they start backing off the Ice idea. I did see the Watch was extended down a row of counties. The other Watches up further north (including N. Jersey) are also being done by 2 other WFOs. Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 325 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 NJZ008-PAZ060-061-241000- /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0005.220225T0000Z-220225T1800Z/ Morris-Berks-Lehigh- Including the cities of Morristown, Reading, and Allentown 325 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to a third of of an inch possible. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Morris. In Pennsylvania, Berks and Lehigh. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult during the height of the storm. The period surrounding the Friday morning commute will experience the greatest impacts. A few power outages and instances of tree damage are possible due to the ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 37 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The NBM is ignoring all the firehoses and seems to be leaning towards the NAM solution. I think for the southern zones south and east of a line Pottstown to Doylestown back to York this is much more realistic of what to expect. I-95 south and east not much if anything just north and west of 95 very minor north and west of West Chester to Plymouth Meeting to say Bristol to Trenton the problems begin. Lancaster to Reading to Allentown points north yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think for the southern zones south and east of a line Pottstown to Doylestown back to York this is much more realistic of what to expect. I-95 south and east not much if anything just north and west of 95 very minor north and west of West Chester to Plymouth Meeting to say Bristol to Trenton the problems begin. Lancaster to Reading to Allentown points north yikes. I was looking out west at Pittsburgh's WFO forecast and they are talking about a heavy moisture plume there coming out of WV, and may need to have flood watches/advisories go up at some point once the storm begins. So the question will be whether that plume translates over to the east or gets shredded by the mountains, lessening the amounts. Until now, most of the models outside of the NAM, seemed to think mountains schmountains and shunts that moisture, unabated, all the way east. Meanwhile the NAM chose to assume a disrupted flow instead. However now that the 0z NAM is out, it seems to have caved to a more moisture laden set of systems and... We have seen many convective lines "dry up" and fizzle on the way east so will see if this overrunning precip idea continues or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 RGEM doubled ZR. even half of this is big trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: RGEM doubled ZR. even half of this is big trouble Whoa! Those are big time numbers. Going to be interesting tomorrow if this continues as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z HRW FV3 (next gen GFS) icy... AND the hot off the press 0z GFS (still amped but not as excessive as previously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z GFS looks like a mix to rain for the southern tier (hope that trend holds in the future). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 0z GFS looks like a mix to rain for the southern tier (hope that trend holds in the future). I think this is exactly what I’m thinking along 95 sleet freezing rain minimal switching over to rain. I’ve seen this song and dance before after record breaking challenging warmth. Think 95 areas up to 15 miles west of it in southeastern pa is okay. This has 31-35 rain written all over it just north and west of 95 with very little ice accretion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Well dang. Stayed up late due to current events, and just now noticed this: Going to be busy tomorrow (today! sad lol). Better get to bed and then figure out what we need to do to prepare. Already have extra gas and propane for the genny, and I'll definitely be test-firing it up tomorrow. Thankfully we have a fully stocked pantry so I won't need to visit the grocery store at least. Might have to make a beer run though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory issued here from 7pm this evening until 10am Friday morning for up to 1" of sleet and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 WWAs up around the metro area. Currently down to 32 here with dp 20. Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 338 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 DEZ001-PAZ070-071-242200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.220225T0000Z-220225T0900Z/ New Castle-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including the cities of Wilmington, Media, and Philadelphia 338 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Areas of freezing rain are expected. Total ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch. * WHERE...The Pennsylvania counties of Delaware and Philadelphia. New Castle County in Delaware. * WHEN...From 7:00 PM this evening until 4:00 AM Friday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use extra caution if traveling. The latest road conditions for your state can be obtained by dialing 5 1 1. && $$ Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 338 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 NJZ012-015-PAZ101>104-106-242200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.220225T0000Z-220225T1500Z/ Middlesex-Mercer-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Trenton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 338 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation is expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to an inch. Total ice accumulations of up to 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. * WHERE...The New Jersey counties of Middlesex and Mercer. The Pennsylvania counties of lower Bucks, Montgomery and Chester. * WHEN...From 7:00 PM this evening until 10:00 AM Friday. * IMPACTS...Expect slippery road conditions. The hazardous weather could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use extra caution if traveling. The latest road conditions for your state can be obtained by dialing 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6z NAM still a slurpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 0z EC and the beat goes on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6z GFS a bit drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 6z NBM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now