Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Ralph I'm going perch fishing Sunday if you want to start getting ready for that instead of this non event. Trying night crawlers and frozen shrimp instead of expensive bloodworms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 While the 18z is running the RGEM holds its ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM still stands alone as the Euro holds tight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Ralph I'm going perch fishing Sunday if you want to start getting ready for that instead of this non event. Trying night crawlers and frozen shrimp instead of expensive bloodworms Been ice fishing Churchville up until a few days ago. Ty for the invite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Mt. Holly afternoon update - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM doesn't look like it is going to do the dry slot thing this run. Focus is more S. ETA: still slots S PA but notable move S with several features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM doesn't look like it is going to do the dry slot thing this run. Focus is more S. ETA: still slots S PA but notable move S with several features As expected, IMO, towards other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks like the 0z NAM did a blend. Not completely caving but moving in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 So as of now all guidance showing at least some sort of icing situation out this way Berks LV area? I guess we still have a couple days to move this North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, penndotguy said: So as of now all guidance showing at least some sort of icing situation out this way Berks LV area? I guess we still have a couple days to move this North That signal has been pretty consistent for all the models today. It seemed to be more sleety up that way and then some kind of atmospheric warming that would change it to rain but the temps would be much colder up there too compared to down here in Philly metro, south and east, so the ZR issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NAM is mostly sleet for much of the Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, Newman said: 0z RGEM That is an icy mauling, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Looks like each side remains in their corners. GFS/EC with some kind of precip through the storm and NAM doing the dryslotting (although the NAM has some kind of antecedent brushes with some precip before the main low comes into play). I think the message is that there will be some kind of overrunning event that will be impacted by whereever the freezing line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 WPC's note last evening on the upcoming event's impact - And this morning's update focusing on the more extreme outcomes in the south central U.S. along with the significant snow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6z Euro - same song different verse, a little bit louder and a little bit worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there. 100% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there. Agreed. First, it's late Feb, not mid January. Second, we don't have cold air established. The combination of warm ground and heavy rates aren't ideal. Not saying there won't be some accretion on trees and cooler surfaces, but I think we'll be okay down here. LV and Pocono's the threat is more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 46 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Just my opinion, but I think this will be mainly rain for the 95 corridor. Don't think it will accrete too much even if the temp hovers around 31-32. Temps going to be 70 today and we don't fall below freezing until the event really starts and even then it's going to be 30-32F. Add in the heavy precip rates, and I just don't see much ice accretion on anything but especially pavement. Lehigh Valley/Pocono's is a different story, I'd be concerned if I lived up there. Generally we do switch from a mix to rain down this way but we have a number of members who are from up there and even the closer-in NW 'burbs, so I definitely wouldn't dismiss this. I don't think it will get to be 70 outside of maybe the most southern parts of the CWA (e.g., Delmarva, etc) and that warmth is ahead of the down-sloping caused by an incoming cold front with some serious (but modified as it moves east) cold from the upper MW. Right now, the cold air has just moved across the western PA border from OH (image from NCEP's 9:30 am surface temp obs) and the front is supposed to come through later this afternoon. The high tomorrow is going to be in the low to mid 30s before the event actually starts (which is supposed to be in the afternoon and go overnight). It will be a thread the needle thing depending on where the freezing line sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Mr NAM doubles ZR in LV with .50” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I absolutely disagree with todays MT Holly discussion. Again, with almost a million people in the Lehigh Valley metro area and the most heavily traveled truck corridor in the northeast, why are they being so laissez faire? When did weather forecasting become a non- physical geographical science? No where is the LV mentioned as having a even a potential significant ice accretions, yet the lower Delaware Valley and NJ is mentioned in the discussion as getting less than .1 of in of ice? You know , there are people who live north of the fall line and we are no longer in hicksville. Why is the LV split in half with a winter storm watch when the entire LV is covered by hills and mountains with many of the highest elevations along South Mountains in Lehigh County? I am so tired of the forecast discussions leaving out the LV region but being thrown in as an afterthought. Its time for a change guys as there are more people in the LV than in some states, We are geographically pinned by the Appalachian Mts on one side and South Mountains on the other side and the valley base elevations are hundreds of feet higher than even lower than Bucks County. PLease, Please, Stop talking about interstates as dividing lines for the types of precip but start talking about the mountain ranges. Man made - Interstates are being substituted for physical geography features. Stop dumbing it down. When you mention north of I-78, I-78 lies between two mountain ranges plus the interstate lies at the bottom of the Valley. If you are going to separate regions for precip amounts, please use South Mountains/Blue Mts or even the fall line as you basis for determining precip types, not 1-78. When in doubt , err on the cautionary side when issuing watches/warnings and list the entire Valley as a watch/warning. In otherwards, it physically does not snow and ice five inches in Bethlehem but not in Allentown since both cities border each other by one simple street. Do you even know that Lehigh University lies directly on top of South Mountain but both counties go through Lehigh University? Did you know that Salisbury Township in Lehigh County lies directly on top of South Mountain as well as Upper Saucon Township in Lehigh County? Did you guys know that huge PPL transmission lines cross the S Mountain and there are major electric substations located on this mountain range and that if the ice accretion on these facilities is severe, the power will go out for residents as far south as Telford PA? Its time for a visit out of the MT Holly office in NJ to see the physical geography of the LV when forecasting weather and not behind a computer screen looking up confidence levels. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area, there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these concerns through the HWO and social media. Low pressure will track out of the Tennessee Valley and up the western side of the Appalachians into the headwaters of the Ohio over western Pennsylvania. With high pressure to our north over Ontario and Quebec, the warm front ahead of the system will remain mostly shunted to our south, though warm air will nudge northward as the front finally lifts through the Delmarva Peninsula Friday and a new coastal low forms over our area. The new 06Z run of the NAM has become a little more progressive and shifted north a touch with the storm, favoring the western parent low a little longer and spawning the new low over southern New Jersey rather than a little offshore. This slight shift kept enough uncertainty to not issue a watch any further south at this time. Continued to favor a Canadian and NAM blend for the low-level temperatures through this period to capture the CAD. QPF amounts remain steady so snowfall and ice amounts haven`t changed much with this new forecast cycle. With the slight northward shift, am thinking there may be a little more freezing rain rather than sleet over much of southeastern PA and central NJ. Other guidance sounding slam the higher terrain where the watch has been issued with heavy sleet Friday morning and early afternoon. Am not quite as confident in how far the freezing rain line will stall over our northern portions of the CWA, but think this may be around the I-80 corridor. A good thud of snow is likely to start the event as a weak vort max moves east along and north of the warm front. There may be a little lull before precip fills back in as the surface low moves closer from the west early Thursday night. Total snowfall amounts range from a few tenths of an inch over the urban corridor to 4-6 inches in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ. Ice amounts still remain from one to two tenths of an inch across much of southeastern PA and into central New Jersey. These amounts area little lower over the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ with sleet and snow holding on a little longer in these places. Total liquid precipitation amounts range from a half to one inch south of Philadelphia to one to one and a quarter inches north of the city over the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey. Travel will be impacted from the combination of wintry precip, especially Friday morning. Cannot rule out power outages and minor tree damage, but the system looks progressive enough that ice totals aren`t quite high enough for Ice Storm Warnings and those significant threats. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 I agree , Northampton under a watch but nothing mentioned for Lehigh? whatever, it’s pretty common with them the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The 7 am update from Mt. Holly - The NAM continues with the dryslotting although a bit more drawn-out type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Mr NAM doubles ZR in LV with .50” 16 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I absolutely disagree with todays MT Holly discussion. Again, with almost a million people in the Lehigh Valley metro area and the most heavily traveled truck corridor in the northeast, why are they being so laissez faire? When did weather forecasting become a non- physical geographical science? No where is the LV mentioned as having a even a potential significant ice accretions, yet the lower Delaware Valley and NJ is mentioned in the discussion as getting less than .1 of in of ice? You know , there are people who live north of the fall line and we are no longer in hicksville. Why is the LV split in half with a winter storm watch when the entire LV is covered by hills and mountains with many of the highest elevations along South Mountains in Lehigh County? I am so tired of the forecast discussions leaving out the LV region but being thrown in as an afterthought. Its time for a change guys as there are more people in the LV than in some states, We are geographically pinned by the Appalachian Mts on one side and South Mountains on the other side and the valley base elevations are hundreds of feet higher than even lower than Bucks County. PLease, Please, Stop talking about interstates as dividing lines for the types of precip but start talking about the mountain ranges. Man made - Interstates are being substituted for physical geography features. Stop dumbing it down. When you mention north of I-78, I-78 lies between two mountain ranges plus the interstate lies at the bottom of the Valley. If you are going to separate regions for precip amounts, please use South Mountains/Blue Mts or even the fall line as you basis for determining precip types, not 1-78. When in doubt , err on the cautionary side when issuing watches/warnings and list the entire Valley as a watch/warning. In otherwards, it physically does not snow and ice five inches in Bethlehem but not in Allentown since both cities border each other by one simple street. Do you even know that Lehigh University lies directly on top of South Mountain but both counties go through Lehigh University? Did you know that Salisbury Township in Lehigh County lies directly on top of South Mountain as well as Upper Saucon Township in Lehigh County? Did you guys know that huge PPL transmission lines cross the S Mountain and there are major electric substations located on this mountain range and that if the ice accretion on these facilities is severe, the power will go out for residents as far south as Telford PA? Its time for a visit out of the MT Holly office in NJ to see the physical geography of the LV when forecasting weather and not behind a computer screen looking up confidence levels. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area, there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these concerns through the HWO and social media. Low pressure will track out of the Tennessee Valley and up the western side of the Appalachians into the headwaters of the Ohio over western Pennsylvania. With high pressure to our north over Ontario and Quebec, the warm front ahead of the system will remain mostly shunted to our south, though warm air will nudge northward as the front finally lifts through the Delmarva Peninsula Friday and a new coastal low forms over our area. The new 06Z run of the NAM has become a little more progressive and shifted north a touch with the storm, favoring the western parent low a little longer and spawning the new low over southern New Jersey rather than a little offshore. This slight shift kept enough uncertainty to not issue a watch any further south at this time. Continued to favor a Canadian and NAM blend for the low-level temperatures through this period to capture the CAD. QPF amounts remain steady so snowfall and ice amounts haven`t changed much with this new forecast cycle. With the slight northward shift, am thinking there may be a little more freezing rain rather than sleet over much of southeastern PA and central NJ. Other guidance sounding slam the higher terrain where the watch has been issued with heavy sleet Friday morning and early afternoon. Am not quite as confident in how far the freezing rain line will stall over our northern portions of the CWA, but think this may be around the I-80 corridor. A good thud of snow is likely to start the event as a weak vort max moves east along and north of the warm front. There may be a little lull before precip fills back in as the surface low moves closer from the west early Thursday night. Total snowfall amounts range from a few tenths of an inch over the urban corridor to 4-6 inches in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ. Ice amounts still remain from one to two tenths of an inch across much of southeastern PA and into central New Jersey. These amounts area little lower over the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ with sleet and snow holding on a little longer in these places. Total liquid precipitation amounts range from a half to one inch south of Philadelphia to one to one and a quarter inches north of the city over the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey. Travel will be impacted from the combination of wintry precip, especially Friday morning. Cannot rule out power outages and minor tree damage, but the system looks progressive enough that ice totals aren`t quite high enough for Ice Storm Warnings and those significant threats. && 6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: I agree , Northampton under a watch but nothing mentioned for Lehigh? whatever, it’s pretty common with them the past few years Here is a link to Mt. Holly's Winter Weather Criteria for Warnings/Advisories (the page uses a mouse-over feature to show the regions and it will display the criteria legends at the bottom but I snap-shotted them to make it easier) - https://www.weather.gov/phi/criteria-winter Each region within the CWA has different criteria for what triggers use of each product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Yes, however Northampton is the same criteria as Lehigh….. the last few years they’ve gotten very weird with the Lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Yes, however Northampton is the same criteria as Lehigh….. the last few years they’ve gotten very weird with the Lehigh valley. I think that Watch up there was aimed at snow for up that way (since the early morning and current AFDs) - Quote && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area, there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these concerns through the HWO and social media. I think they are going to throw a WWA up for the LV and maybe have a SPS for the northern portions of the next set of counties below that and then nothing for Philly metro S/E where a mix/rain would not have much of an impact outside of nuisance stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 As expected the GFS continues a trend toward the less icy NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: As expected the GFS continues a trend toward the less icy NAM solution It threw in a baby dryslot (showing a quick pause between systems). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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