The Great CAPE Weak Sauce Storm (or Disappointment and Hindenburg like Fail)

[WinterWxLuvr]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don’t tempt me

I’m tempting you. Do it. Ban him. It would make the rest of us feel good

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

as many as we want. stop visiting the forum if it bothers you so much.  

I can’t remember his history. Is he from this forum?  I’m on my phone and can’t see. 

[stormtracker]

Nevermind. I can see it.  hmm

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

Once it became apparent we wouldn’t get the tpv displacement we wanted and thus was just another iteration of the same pattern I didn’t give it much chance. We had some luck early during the transition when the AO was still beat neutral. But ever since this became a pure pac driven pattern with a +++AO it’s been mostly fail city. 
 

We had a similar problem early in 2015 before the tpv became displaced into Quebec in Feb.  The amplitude waves need to overcome the progressive flow will usually mean they also lift too far north because of the lack of blocking. We’re left walking a tightrope. 
 

I have slightly more interest with guidance suggesting the AO is about to flip. It’s too far out but that could change the equation in our favor. Of course we’re in March by then so…

[CAPE]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thread killed it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thread killed it. 

Nah the Nina did 

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thread killed it. 

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

[Ji]

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

[WinterWxLuvr]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

Think you own the top three at least

[dailylurker]

Down to 38.6. Down at my property in AA County is 49 still. Probably easy to see where frozen is going to happen. I like my location up here for this one. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Down to 38.6. Down at my property in AA County is 49 still. Probably easy to see where frozen is going to happen. I like my location up here for this one. 

Wrong fail Storm

[snowmagnet]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

Nah… there have been quite a few winners this winter. 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995

There was no requirement for you to follow it. You probably weren't getting snow from it even if it had transpired. 

[mappy]

lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

Never forget

[stormtracker]

What a thread 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

What a thread 

Congrats

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Congrats

Time for some tilapia?

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Time for some tilapia?

yeah I need to load up on omega-6

[Ji]

Hopefully this trends north for tomorrow

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Hopefully this trends north for tomorrow

No sir! That piece up north is the Black History hammer! Guaranteeing no disruptions to various celebrations, lol

[Stormfly]

The woofers are all gone.

Of course, it's nothing but treble!

[SnowenOutThere]

Guys, I think it may be too late to save this one. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 2/26/2022 at 9:02 PM, Stormfly said:

The woofers are all gone.

Of course, it's nothing but treble!

Don't ya mean the sub-woofers? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Again...the Black History hammer, lol

[Stormfly]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't ya mean the sub-woofers? 

I was referring to the guy that goes "woof woof" when there's a (weather) threat or strong signal.

But if you want to discuss the sound/music aspect of it, sure I'm game over in the banter thread!