The Great CAPE Weak Sauce Storm (or Disappointment and Hindenburg like Fail)

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE not upset just saying I’m not excited by another event where the best case scenario is probably another minor event here. But I’m taking the kids up to Killington this weekend and they are getting 10”+ later this week so I’m good. Way more excited about that than disappointed by another fail here. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah gonna be shit

Fixed 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nobody should be singing the Euro praises either. IMO outside 4 days it’s all over the place too.

[osfan24]

So the JB blizzard is off

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Euro is gonna be shit

EPS is too. We got ourselves a cold frontal passage!

[Stormfly]

I really hope nothingburgers aren't high in cholesterol!

[CAPE]

Some slight improvement in the Southern sw and the NS vort lobe looks to be dropping in a tad more westward on HH GFS. Probably not enough but lets see.

[CAPE]

Better

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Well from what I see it is definitely farther north with the precip. But it's like nearly 45 and rain. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

And the temps are really barely marginal even at 12z Sunday when precip starts. The cold air really doesn't get in until after that wave departs unfortunately. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well from what I see it is definitely farther north with the precip. But it's like nearly 45 and rain. 

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

[Scraff]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

And the temps are really barely marginal even at 12z Sunday when precip starts. The cold air really doesn't get in until after that wave departs unfortunately. 

At least we have some sort of storm getting reeled back in. That’s my take away for now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Nah this thing has to miss...it's the last Sunday of Black History month and there are many celebrations in church in the morning and concerts in the afternoon (and I'm playing at one of each). So uh...while the snow weenie would like snow anytime...the musician doesn't want any disruptions! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, CAPE said:

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

Exactly. Would need the NS to get in there more rather than staying back and effectively acting as a cold front that goes through later. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

At least we have some sort of storm getting reeled back in. That’s my take away for now. 

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

ill give you a trend

[Scraff]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

Hopefully this Is the start of a new trend. Seems like it anyway.

Nice on the 120! Actually heading to Ten Eyck, Dewey, and finishing with DFH for dinner in Rehoboth tomorrow night. Work / RnD trip with my dad.  

[RevWarReenactor]

My old non scientific standard that never fails me, you can worry about getting precip or you can worry about getting cold temps. If you have to worry about getting both, it ain't happening. Not one storm in my life worked out where I had to root for both. 

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

My old non scientific standard that never fails me, you can worry about getting precip or you can worry about getting cold temps. If you have to worry about getting both, it ain't happening. Not one storm in my life worked out where I had to root for both. 

Another positive statement

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Another positive statement

My old non scientific standard that never fails me, he pops out of his hole when there's negativity to be had.

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My old non scientific standard that never fails me, he pops out of his hole when there's negativity to be had.

And there you have it Storm

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Hopefully this Is the start of a new trend. Seems like it anyway.

Nice on the 120! Actually heading to Ten Eyck, Dewey, and finishing with DFH for dinner in Rehoboth tomorrow night. Work / RnD trip with my dad.  

Nice! Enjoy.

I might be looking for a "next" career soon. Maybe you can hook me up. 

[CAPE]

18z EPS was better, but still not good.

[WinterWxLuvr]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z EPS was better, but still not good.

We don’t talk in terms of good. Here it’s just degrees of bad

[CAPE]

These people at Mount Holly don't seem to understand.

Quieter weather expected for the long term with high pressure bringing fair but chilly conditions for Saturday with plenty of sunshine followed by the approach of the next upper level trough and an associated cold front Sunday. It will be warmer Sunday ahead of this feature but there will also be the chance for some rain/snow showers. Thankfully, model consensus keeps the threat for southern-stream precipitation Sunday well south of our area with the cold front remaining a little slower and not able to phase with this energy over the Southeast.

[CAPE]

Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

[jlewis1111]

Bunch of weenies here another thread thats a bust. How many you guys gonna start here? lol

[CAPE]

^Maybe this guy should be limited to zero daily posts.

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Maybe this guy should be limited to zero daily posts.

Don’t tempt me

[mappy]

1 hour ago, jlewis1111 said:

Bunch of weenies here another thread thats a bust. How many you guys gonna start here? lol

as many as we want. stop visiting the forum if it bothers you so much.